BGT, Day 2.

Its a sad indictment on society when the best Britain can offer talent wise is a 12 year old boy, who looks like he should have been a girl singing an Adele cover and the exchange players are backing him off the boards.

I got it wrong last night, and I lay the blame squarely at Simon Cowell's feet. I laid the pianist to make the finals and he shouldn't be anywhere near them, especially after Simon claims the cyclist was his favourite act of the night and then doesn't put him through. Oh well, a few more nights to recover I guess.

As I was saying yesterday, I like Two and a Half Men. As it turns out they have a decent semi final and I expect them to go through. There was some confusion over when they were to appear and initially I had thought they were on Friday, luckily they go tonight and the firms make them 11/10 favourite to win the show, which should they do so will surely see a crash in their price with so little else on offer. Their main rivals tonight are New Bounce who are a group of lads who sing very averagely. After the performance given by Ronan last night they will not shine so it should be smooth sailing for our trio.

I have backed them on the machine at a fancy price and I'm going to keep it regardless of the drift. The market over reacted to Ronan's performance last night as it so often does and I'm sure his price is very tradeable should you wish to lay it now.

No further bets for me right now, I'm hoping the show improves, I've listed tonight's acts below.

Two and Half Men

New Bounce

David and Karen

Enchantment

Herbie Armstrong

Up and Over it

Jean Martyn

Lorna Bliss.

Britain's Got Talent 2011

As usual I find myself starting a new post with the words, long, time, since, last and post. But I haven't had much to talk about lately. I've been in Spain for most of the year doing very little other than the online grind but I thought I'd blog a few thoughts this week on Brtain's Got Talent (BGT) as we have had some success in the past.

Unlike in previous years where there has been a hot jolly this years show seems to be wide open. Partly due to the fact that the judges simply did not put the best acts through. Had they went with two dancers and put the French lad through as well (instead of one of the two dog acts ffs) I'm sure he would have been a market leader.

Oh and talking about market leaders, what happened to Taylor Fowlis? Stan James had her as their 7/2 favourite throughout the audition period and she didn't even audition. I hope they will refund any moneys wagered on her.

Anyway, I digress. The market leader is a young lad called Ronan Parke. He sings. Fairly well but it appears he's going to sing older easier numbers. I don't know if he or his parents are aware of this yet, but he is quite clearly gay. I'm sure he'll pick up some votes from people that want to mother him, but I am always keen to take singers on in this show. Good singers go on X Factor, the rest go on BGT.

Another factor very important to take into account is who can improve. I liked Razy the Romanian matrix dancer's routine, but having seen him dance twice now (he danced off last night v Michael) I think we will be seeing a lot of the same moves and should he make the finals will probably struggle for that little bit extra. It is also possible by then that the public will be annoyed with his constant tears.

In complete contrast to Razy, there is a group called Two and a Half Men who were bubbly, energetic, quick, funny and very well polished. They were similar in ways to Chris and Wes (recent winners of Sky's Got to Dance) and Twist and Pulse (former BGT runners-up) but with their own style and music types.

Now before steaming in with a bet I would advise a look at the semi final line-ups, which at the time of writing are not available. I'd also wait for Betfair's market to take shape but I am going to risk an initial small amount at the 25/1 available with a few firms now. Coincidentally, this was the price Divercity opened at the year they won.

Looking down the field at possible dangers, it looks like it will come down to how they structure the semi finals.

I'm sure the dog acts and bell ringers will struggle, the comedians rarely have enough or any new and original material. Michael Collings who was an early front runner is unlikely to top his audition performance of "Fast Car" and although clearly talented how many times do you want to see a guy bouncing around on his bike?

Its a weak year, so at the price i'm taking a chance with a trio who can vary their act, make the audience smile and perform a well organised, slick dance act.

If the semi final line ups go our way, I will likely invest heavier but for the time being its small stakes.

0.5pt Two and a Half Men @ 25/1.

Championship Matches

Again, I haven't been updating as much, things have been fairly hectic and to be honest I'm in need of a change of fortune. Sometimes blogging can feel like the last thing on your mind.

I did have a very enjoyable weekend watching the divisional matches in the NFL. After seeing The Steelers edge past Baltimore I was on tenderhooks for The Packers game in Atlanta.

As some of you will know I backed Green Bay for the Superbowl back in August, I had written of their chances a while ago considering the injuries they have suffered throughout the season, but things seem to be coming good just at the right time.

They turned it on against Matty Ice and co in the dome and looked every bit like real contenders. In fact following New England's elimination the firms generally make them 7/4 favourites to win the world.

New York Jets were awesome at Foxboro. I can't remember seeing secondary coverage that good before. Tom Brady, one of the all time greats was given as much time as he liked in the pocket and still struggled to find a reciever.

So on we go to the Championship matches where New York Jets travel to Pitsburgh in the AFC and Green Bay travel to their divisional rivals Chicago in the NFC.

I'm going to be keeping my powder dry this weekend and concentrate on cheering on the Packers. Personally I hope Pitsburgh get it done in the AFC because I think Rodgers and the Pack will match up far better against The Steelers than The Jets, but I do think both games could go either way.

No bets this weekend, but a few of us will be in town on Sunday to watch the games, the likely venue will be Bodeans-Tower-Hill if anyone fancies coming down. There will no doubt be a bunch of degenerate side action taking place.

New Year, New Post.

Ok, so I haven't been updating much lately and the only excuse I have is that I've been extremely lazy.

So I thought I'd start the New Year with a post about last night and a bet that I like very much.

Did you have a good one last night? If you're reading this soon after then you're probably regretting a lot of things. Sore head, sore wallet, maybe a black eye or two. Perhaps you've just been released from the police station or worse still the hospital.

Cynical? Me, never.

I'm not a big fan of NYE, the pubs tend to be full and full of the annual idiots that come out but once a year and really shouldn't have more than two pints let alone jaeger bombs. In recent years I've tended to go out early with a few pals have a few drinks and then head home before the tubes get packed and see the new year (just another day) in at home.

Last night I thought I'd mix it up a bit. Bad play.

I stayed in and played a bit of online poker, didn't have a drink as the plan was to use this to my advantage later. So a couple of cups of tea later I decide to head into town taking advantage of the 24 hour (well almost) tube service. I jump on the train at around 00.15. Its quiet apart from a few revellers singing along to the usual beach boys classic in a nearby bar.

My plan is to head to the Empire Casino and play a little cash, hoping that there might be a few drunken revellers throwing some extra money about. Its a bit of an aquarium at the best of time.

I get off at Charing Cross Tube shortly after 01.00. It was a damn slow train stopping at stations that I've never heard of before.

The streets are packed with party goers. I literally cannot move. I slowly trudge towards Leicester Square but its a no go, after 30 minutes it becomes apparent that I'm not getting close to the casino let alone in it. So I decide to call it a night and head south to my kid's house.

Only a few tubes stations are open so I end up hiking down the Haymarket and towards the Embankment. The streets were paved with piss and vomit, broken glass and bottles. I've never seen anything like it and I've been virtually everywhere as a football fan.

People were lying on the floor passed out as others stepped over them, and I saw at least a dozen fights. One particularly caught my eye opposite the Sports Cafe on Haymarket. A group of 3 or 4 white lads clashed with a group of 10 or 12 Asian lads. The fights all seemed to start this way, groups of different race attacking one and other for little or no reason.

Anyway, back to the action, bottles are thrown, then eventually they get up close and personal and start trying to wrap a bottle round their opponents (sic) head. It ended up with only one of the white guys actually standing and fighting and it was no surprise to see the Asians all steam in when they realised there was only one left. I almost stepped in, but the Police got there within a minute or two.

I'm no friend of the Police but seeing those scenes through the eyes of sobriety made me feel sorry for them. It must be the worst job in the world manning those streets and they won't get any thanks for it, in fact they probably only get a mediocre salary for their troubles.

Anyway after queueing for about an hour I managed to get on a tube and indoors fairly quickly so it wasn't all bad. I would seriously advise anyone to avoid the West End next year, or maybe I'm just getting old. I'm certainly not getting any younger.

So on to the bet. This week sees a key game in what is the oldest rivalry in the NFL. Chicago travel to Wisconsin to take on the Pack.

Green Bay must win to secure a play off berth, but Chicago who have already won the division can get a bye if they beat the Packers and in doing so help out my team The New York Giants.

Its going be an interesting match up. The Bears would love nothing more than to end the Packers dream and in doing so secure a bye in the 1st round of play off matches. They won't rest players for this one, they'll be fully focused on getting the job done.

Injuries have halted the Packs charge this season and they've had more than their fair share. It may all have been different if they played the season with a full roster.

The general points line is around 41-42, which suggests Vegas is not anticipating a shoot out, which both teams could well produce.

I was tempted to have a bet on Chicago on the money line at 4/1 and I wouldn't put you off, but looking at the spread it just looks wrong to me. How, when so much is on the line can the divisional winners get a 10 point start at their deadly rivals?

If this was pre season I might think the line was close to being right (but still a bit big), but with 16 games gone its clearly a line that is based on needs and reputations rather than form and facts. Green Bay may well get it done, but they won't cover 10 points.

2pts Chicago +10 Paddy Power & Bwin.

I will try harder this year to keep the blog updated but in the mean time I'd like to wish all my reader a happy and prosperous new year.

Sunday Night Action.

Long time no post.

Although I done it in at Wembley the day itself was fantastic. Extremely good hospitality, good action and although the bets went astray we did get a small sweat in the last quarter.

I've been fairly busy sorting out life tilt lately hence no recent updates but I do have a bet for this evening.

Why it is always wise for the punter to follow the form team I've decided that tonight I'm going to go against the grain and take on "my team" the New York Giants.

Dallas have looked awful of late and Wade Phillips has paid the ultimate price. The weather in New York tonight might not be to the liking of Dallas either but do they really warrant a 14 point start?

In the last match up between these teams Tony Romo was injured and in all likelihood will miss the rest of the season. John Kitna is at the helm for The Cowboys tonight and will be a target for the aggressive Giants D-Line.

The Big Blue are on a roll but the most important feature to them will be to get the win. Eli Manning is always capable of throwing a few interceptions and that's why I think although he will no doubt find some big plays they are more likely to keep the ball on the ground and hold on to as much possession as is possible. In Bradshaw and Jacobs they have the tools to do this.

Its a heavyweight divisional match up and all that will matter to Tom Coughlin and his troops is getting the win, they won't be bothered about covering such a wide margin.

Dallas have nothing to lose now, they are only playing for pride and in such cases it often brings out the best in the players. Yes I think New York will win at the New Meadowlands tonight, but they won't cover the 14 point start given to America's Team.

In cases where there is a big line to cover the punter can always be undone by the fact the winning side (hopefully New York) maintain possesion and don't attempt risky plays for extra points. It is possible in my mind that New York could win this by 7-10 points but in no way do I see them covering the 14 point line.

Lets hope this bet see's us back to winning ways.

1pt Dallas +14 @ 5/6 Extrabet (-13.5 generally).

Wembeeerrlllley.

Last weeks bet could be considered fairly unlucky. With Nate Kaeding out, The Chargers picked up former Texan, Kris Brown from free agency to cover the kicking duties.

He did extremely well with the onside kick but right at the death, 23-20 down he is forced 5 yards further back for a penalty and hits the post. This was in the dying seconds and obviously meant the field goal would have taken it to overtime allowing us to collect on the overs bet regardless. Its a hard one to take but I still think we were on the right line as come game time the firms had pushed the point spread up a a couple of points.

More problems arrived this week with a bet with the Magic Sign on Saturday. 2 nice dogs came my way and I asked a mate to put on a single and a double in a local shop for me (these dogs are better done in the shop than on account).

Anyway the 1st one obliges at 7/2 and the 2nd wins at 7/4, but whats this the bookie is refusing to payout, even though the bets were placed 25 minutes before the start of the first race. Its a long and complicated story (they are even refusing to return the stake) and IBAS will i'm sure come to the rescue but until then, my advice is to use Hills or Corals if you are betting on a "dodgy" dog or two.

So i'm off to Wembley this Sunday to see the Broncos take on the 49ers. For this reason I have decided to concentrate my efforts on this match up as I'm obviously going to need to have some interest bets.

When the NFLUK agreed terms to bring these franchises to London I'm sure they did not expect the 2 teams to be 1-6 and 2-5.

Denver's last game against Oakland was well, unbelievable really, losing 59-14. Its a short week for them with a lot of travelling involved so its going to be hard to recover from such a beating.

It's not looking a lot better for the 49ers, who allowed Carolina their first victory of the season last Sunday. In Fact the only game they have won this season was a 17-9 home win against the Raiders.

There will however be some things to look forward to. In Frank Gore the 49ers have one of the best running backs in the NFL and he will be given the lion share of the ground work once again. Vernon Davis is also a top TE and has found the endzone in his last 4 outings.

Denver letting Brandon Marshall leave for Miami in the off season was a big talking point, however in Brandon Lloyd they have a reciever ranked no.1 for 20 yard+ receptions and with Kyle Orton in fine form (for the most part) we should expect a lot of decent yardage.

Knowshon Moreno has returned from injury and I was impressed with him in his rookie year last season, so I'm sure it is only a matter of time before the Broncos improve their rushing game.

So in what could be a "anything happens" game i'm going to take the Broncos on the money line, solely because they seem to offer a little more value, and lets face it they can't be as bad as last week again.

Other bets I'll be having for interest:

Denver 6/5
Vernon Davis anytime TD scorer 17/10
Frank Gore total rushing yards under 105.5 (this is way to much, some firms go 95.5)
And solely because railing the unders is awful, over 41.5 total points.

Lets hope its a great game.

Week 7 bet

Fortunately yesterday's tilt over flight prices has vanished. I managed to find a resonably priced flight, although a week earlier than intended. It means I'll be back in London on Saturday.

I've really been enjoying the Baseball play offs this year, although having talked up the chances of Texas for so long I'm a little annoyed that I haven't a penny on them and in fact have backed the Yankees.

The Yanks pulled it back to 2-3 last night with another post season win from CC Sabathia and now they return to Texas for the final 2 (hopefully) games. Friday sees Phil Hughes pitching against Colby Lewis and I'm really hopeful that Hughes who has been a revelation this year winning 18 regular season games can get the W. If it goes according to plan then we really will be in for a treat on Saturday night with Andy Pettitte trying to revenge his earlier lose against the formidable Cliff Lee. Only 4 or 5 teams in the history of the ALCS have come back from 3-1 down. One time please Yankees.

So back on topic and I thought I would be recommending a bet on New England on the money line this weekend. I do like their chances still but having studied the match up i've decided to go long on the points instead.

The line is generally set at 47, and I think it should probably be as high as 50.

New England are the league's highest point scorers so far this season with an average of 30.8. Yes, they have lost Randy Moss but that didn't seem to slow them down last week with a solid victory against Baltimore. Brady is a hall of fame quality QB and has one of the best arms in the business, he knows how to find his players and I'm sure the likes of Wes Welker, Deon Branch, Aaron Hernandez and Co are relishing the extra work they are going to get now Moss has departed.

They are conceding points too, at an average of 23.2 per game.

Now looking at the Chargers set up, if I'd of suggested pre-season that San Diego would lose back to back games against Oakland and St Louis you'd have though that i'd gone mad. But thats exactly what has happened these last 2 weeks, yet they are still ranked no.1 in the NFL for offense. Its a crazy world. Points wise they are 5th overall averaging 26.2 a game and conceding an average of 21.0.

A crude mathmatical equation suggests to me the line should be around 50.5 taking in to account points scored and conceded by each team. Injury doubts concerning Floyd and Gates will be of concern to the Chargers but Gates is unlikely to miss the action having played the last 85+ games, it will have to be very serious to keep him out. The special teams have been letting the side down, but Phillip Rivers has not. Expect him to find his TE and recievers again this week and put plenty of points on the board.


1pt over 47 points 10/11 (generally)