Nutty Sports

BGT, Day 2.

2011-05-31T13:50:00.002+01:00

Its a sad indictment on society when the best Britain can offer talent wise is a 12 year old boy, who looks like he should have been a girl singing an Adele cover and the exchange players are backing him off the boards.

I got it wrong last night, and I lay the blame squarely at Simon Cowell's feet. I laid the pianist to make the finals and he shouldn't be anywhere near them, especially after Simon claims the cyclist was his favourite act of the night and then doesn't put him through. Oh well, a few more nights to recover I guess.

As I was saying yesterday, I like Two and a Half Men. As it turns out they have a decent semi final and I expect them to go through. There was some confusion over when they were to appear and initially I had thought they were on Friday, luckily they go tonight and the firms make them 11/10 favourite to win the show, which should they do so will surely see a crash in their price with so little else on offer. Their main rivals tonight are New Bounce who are a group of lads who sing very averagely. After the performance given by Ronan last night they will not shine so it should be smooth sailing for our trio.

I have backed them on the machine at a fancy price and I'm going to keep it regardless of the drift. The market over reacted to Ronan's performance last night as it so often does and I'm sure his price is very tradeable should you wish to lay it now.

No further bets for me right now, I'm hoping the show improves, I've listed tonight's acts below.

Two and Half Men

New Bounce

David and Karen

Enchantment

Herbie Armstrong

Up and Over it

Jean Martyn

Lorna Bliss.

Britain's Got Talent 2011

2011-05-30T09:18:00.002+01:00

As usual I find myself starting a new post with the words, long, time, since, last and post. But I haven't had much to talk about lately. I've been in Spain for most of the year doing very little other than the online grind but I thought I'd blog a few thoughts this week on Brtain's Got Talent (BGT) as we have had some success in the past.

Unlike in previous years where there has been a hot jolly this years show seems to be wide open. Partly due to the fact that the judges simply did not put the best acts through. Had they went with two dancers and put the French lad through as well (instead of one of the two dog acts ffs) I'm sure he would have been a market leader.

Oh and talking about market leaders, what happened to Taylor Fowlis? Stan James had her as their 7/2 favourite throughout the audition period and she didn't even audition. I hope they will refund any moneys wagered on her.

Anyway, I digress. The market leader is a young lad called Ronan Parke. He sings. Fairly well but it appears he's going to sing older easier numbers. I don't know if he or his parents are aware of this yet, but he is quite clearly gay. I'm sure he'll pick up some votes from people that want to mother him, but I am always keen to take singers on in this show. Good singers go on X Factor, the rest go on BGT.

Another factor very important to take into account is who can improve. I liked Razy the Romanian matrix dancer's routine, but having seen him dance twice now (he danced off last night v Michael) I think we will be seeing a lot of the same moves and should he make the finals will probably struggle for that little bit extra. It is also possible by then that the public will be annoyed with his constant tears.

In complete contrast to Razy, there is a group called Two and a Half Men who were bubbly, energetic, quick, funny and very well polished. They were similar in ways to Chris and Wes (recent winners of Sky's Got to Dance) and Twist and Pulse (former BGT runners-up) but with their own style and music types.

Now before steaming in with a bet I would advise a look at the semi final line-ups, which at the time of writing are not available. I'd also wait for Betfair's market to take shape but I am going to risk an initial small amount at the 25/1 available with a few firms now. Coincidentally, this was the price Divercity opened at the year they won.

Looking down the field at possible dangers, it looks like it will come down to how they structure the semi finals.

I'm sure the dog acts and bell ringers will struggle, the comedians rarely have enough or any new and original material. Michael Collings who was an early front runner is unlikely to top his audition performance of "Fast Car" and although clearly talented how many times do you want to see a guy bouncing around on his bike?

Its a weak year, so at the price i'm taking a chance with a trio who can vary their act, make the audience smile and perform a well organised, slick dance act.

If the semi final line ups go our way, I will likely invest heavier but for the time being its small stakes.

0.5pt Two and a Half Men @ 25/1.

Championship Matches

2011-01-18T12:21:00.003Z

Again, I haven't been updating as much, things have been fairly hectic and to be honest I'm in need of a change of fortune. Sometimes blogging can feel like the last thing on your mind.

I did have a very enjoyable weekend watching the divisional matches in the NFL. After seeing The Steelers edge past Baltimore I was on tenderhooks for The Packers game in Atlanta.

As some of you will know I backed Green Bay for the Superbowl back in August, I had written of their chances a while ago considering the injuries they have suffered throughout the season, but things seem to be coming good just at the right time.

They turned it on against Matty Ice and co in the dome and looked every bit like real contenders. In fact following New England's elimination the firms generally make them 7/4 favourites to win the world.

New York Jets were awesome at Foxboro. I can't remember seeing secondary coverage that good before. Tom Brady, one of the all time greats was given as much time as he liked in the pocket and still struggled to find a reciever.

So on we go to the Championship matches where New York Jets travel to Pitsburgh in the AFC and Green Bay travel to their divisional rivals Chicago in the NFC.

I'm going to be keeping my powder dry this weekend and concentrate on cheering on the Packers. Personally I hope Pitsburgh get it done in the AFC because I think Rodgers and the Pack will match up far better against The Steelers than The Jets, but I do think both games could go either way.

No bets this weekend, but a few of us will be in town on Sunday to watch the games, the likely venue will be Bodeans-Tower-Hill if anyone fancies coming down. There will no doubt be a bunch of degenerate side action taking place.

New Year, New Post.

2011-01-01T13:23:00.003Z

Ok, so I haven't been updating much lately and the only excuse I have is that I've been extremely lazy.

So I thought I'd start the New Year with a post about last night and a bet that I like very much.

Did you have a good one last night? If you're reading this soon after then you're probably regretting a lot of things. Sore head, sore wallet, maybe a black eye or two. Perhaps you've just been released from the police station or worse still the hospital.

Cynical? Me, never.

I'm not a big fan of NYE, the pubs tend to be full and full of the annual idiots that come out but once a year and really shouldn't have more than two pints let alone jaeger bombs. In recent years I've tended to go out early with a few pals have a few drinks and then head home before the tubes get packed and see the new year (just another day) in at home.

Last night I thought I'd mix it up a bit. Bad play.

I stayed in and played a bit of online poker, didn't have a drink as the plan was to use this to my advantage later. So a couple of cups of tea later I decide to head into town taking advantage of the 24 hour (well almost) tube service. I jump on the train at around 00.15. Its quiet apart from a few revellers singing along to the usual beach boys classic in a nearby bar.

My plan is to head to the Empire Casino and play a little cash, hoping that there might be a few drunken revellers throwing some extra money about. Its a bit of an aquarium at the best of time.

I get off at Charing Cross Tube shortly after 01.00. It was a damn slow train stopping at stations that I've never heard of before.

The streets are packed with party goers. I literally cannot move. I slowly trudge towards Leicester Square but its a no go, after 30 minutes it becomes apparent that I'm not getting close to the casino let alone in it. So I decide to call it a night and head south to my kid's house.

Only a few tubes stations are open so I end up hiking down the Haymarket and towards the Embankment. The streets were paved with piss and vomit, broken glass and bottles. I've never seen anything like it and I've been virtually everywhere as a football fan.

People were lying on the floor passed out as others stepped over them, and I saw at least a dozen fights. One particularly caught my eye opposite the Sports Cafe on Haymarket. A group of 3 or 4 white lads clashed with a group of 10 or 12 Asian lads. The fights all seemed to start this way, groups of different race attacking one and other for little or no reason.

Anyway, back to the action, bottles are thrown, then eventually they get up close and personal and start trying to wrap a bottle round their opponents (sic) head. It ended up with only one of the white guys actually standing and fighting and it was no surprise to see the Asians all steam in when they realised there was only one left. I almost stepped in, but the Police got there within a minute or two.

I'm no friend of the Police but seeing those scenes through the eyes of sobriety made me feel sorry for them. It must be the worst job in the world manning those streets and they won't get any thanks for it, in fact they probably only get a mediocre salary for their troubles.

Anyway after queueing for about an hour I managed to get on a tube and indoors fairly quickly so it wasn't all bad. I would seriously advise anyone to avoid the West End next year, or maybe I'm just getting old. I'm certainly not getting any younger.

So on to the bet. This week sees a key game in what is the oldest rivalry in the NFL. Chicago travel to Wisconsin to take on the Pack.

Green Bay must win to secure a play off berth, but Chicago who have already won the division can get a bye if they beat the Packers and in doing so help out my team The New York Giants.

Its going be an interesting match up. The Bears would love nothing more than to end the Packers dream and in doing so secure a bye in the 1st round of play off matches. They won't rest players for this one, they'll be fully focused on getting the job done.

Injuries have halted the Packs charge this season and they've had more than their fair share. It may all have been different if they played the season with a full roster.

The general points line is around 41-42, which suggests Vegas is not anticipating a shoot out, which both teams could well produce.

I was tempted to have a bet on Chicago on the money line at 4/1 and I wouldn't put you off, but looking at the spread it just looks wrong to me. How, when so much is on the line can the divisional winners get a 10 point start at their deadly rivals?

If this was pre season I might think the line was close to being right (but still a bit big), but with 16 games gone its clearly a line that is based on needs and reputations rather than form and facts. Green Bay may well get it done, but they won't cover 10 points.

2pts Chicago +10 Paddy Power & Bwin.

I will try harder this year to keep the blog updated but in the mean time I'd like to wish all my reader a happy and prosperous new year.

Sunday Night Action.

2010-11-14T15:08:00.002Z

Long time no post.

Although I done it in at Wembley the day itself was fantastic. Extremely good hospitality, good action and although the bets went astray we did get a small sweat in the last quarter.

I've been fairly busy sorting out life tilt lately hence no recent updates but I do have a bet for this evening.

Why it is always wise for the punter to follow the form team I've decided that tonight I'm going to go against the grain and take on "my team" the New York Giants.

Dallas have looked awful of late and Wade Phillips has paid the ultimate price. The weather in New York tonight might not be to the liking of Dallas either but do they really warrant a 14 point start?

In the last match up between these teams Tony Romo was injured and in all likelihood will miss the rest of the season. John Kitna is at the helm for The Cowboys tonight and will be a target for the aggressive Giants D-Line.

The Big Blue are on a roll but the most important feature to them will be to get the win. Eli Manning is always capable of throwing a few interceptions and that's why I think although he will no doubt find some big plays they are more likely to keep the ball on the ground and hold on to as much possession as is possible. In Bradshaw and Jacobs they have the tools to do this.

Its a heavyweight divisional match up and all that will matter to Tom Coughlin and his troops is getting the win, they won't be bothered about covering such a wide margin.

Dallas have nothing to lose now, they are only playing for pride and in such cases it often brings out the best in the players. Yes I think New York will win at the New Meadowlands tonight, but they won't cover the 14 point start given to America's Team.

In cases where there is a big line to cover the punter can always be undone by the fact the winning side (hopefully New York) maintain possesion and don't attempt risky plays for extra points. It is possible in my mind that New York could win this by 7-10 points but in no way do I see them covering the 14 point line.

Lets hope this bet see's us back to winning ways.

1pt Dallas +14 @ 5/6 Extrabet (-13.5 generally).

Wembeeerrlllley.

2010-10-29T13:42:00.005+01:00

Last weeks bet could be considered fairly unlucky. With Nate Kaeding out, The Chargers picked up former Texan, Kris Brown from free agency to cover the kicking duties.

He did extremely well with the onside kick but right at the death, 23-20 down he is forced 5 yards further back for a penalty and hits the post. This was in the dying seconds and obviously meant the field goal would have taken it to overtime allowing us to collect on the overs bet regardless. Its a hard one to take but I still think we were on the right line as come game time the firms had pushed the point spread up a a couple of points.

More problems arrived this week with a bet with the Magic Sign on Saturday. 2 nice dogs came my way and I asked a mate to put on a single and a double in a local shop for me (these dogs are better done in the shop than on account).

Anyway the 1st one obliges at 7/2 and the 2nd wins at 7/4, but whats this the bookie is refusing to payout, even though the bets were placed 25 minutes before the start of the first race. Its a long and complicated story (they are even refusing to return the stake) and IBAS will i'm sure come to the rescue but until then, my advice is to use Hills or Corals if you are betting on a "dodgy" dog or two.

So i'm off to Wembley this Sunday to see the Broncos take on the 49ers. For this reason I have decided to concentrate my efforts on this match up as I'm obviously going to need to have some interest bets.

When the NFLUK agreed terms to bring these franchises to London I'm sure they did not expect the 2 teams to be 1-6 and 2-5.

Denver's last game against Oakland was well, unbelievable really, losing 59-14. Its a short week for them with a lot of travelling involved so its going to be hard to recover from such a beating.

It's not looking a lot better for the 49ers, who allowed Carolina their first victory of the season last Sunday. In Fact the only game they have won this season was a 17-9 home win against the Raiders.

There will however be some things to look forward to. In Frank Gore the 49ers have one of the best running backs in the NFL and he will be given the lion share of the ground work once again. Vernon Davis is also a top TE and has found the endzone in his last 4 outings.

Denver letting Brandon Marshall leave for Miami in the off season was a big talking point, however in Brandon Lloyd they have a reciever ranked no.1 for 20 yard+ receptions and with Kyle Orton in fine form (for the most part) we should expect a lot of decent yardage.

Knowshon Moreno has returned from injury and I was impressed with him in his rookie year last season, so I'm sure it is only a matter of time before the Broncos improve their rushing game.

So in what could be a "anything happens" game i'm going to take the Broncos on the money line, solely because they seem to offer a little more value, and lets face it they can't be as bad as last week again.

Other bets I'll be having for interest:

Denver 6/5
Vernon Davis anytime TD scorer 17/10
Frank Gore total rushing yards under 105.5 (this is way to much, some firms go 95.5)
And solely because railing the unders is awful, over 41.5 total points.

Lets hope its a great game.

Week 7 bet

2010-10-21T12:58:00.005+01:00

Fortunately yesterday's tilt over flight prices has vanished. I managed to find a resonably priced flight, although a week earlier than intended. It means I'll be back in London on Saturday.

I've really been enjoying the Baseball play offs this year, although having talked up the chances of Texas for so long I'm a little annoyed that I haven't a penny on them and in fact have backed the Yankees.

The Yanks pulled it back to 2-3 last night with another post season win from CC Sabathia and now they return to Texas for the final 2 (hopefully) games. Friday sees Phil Hughes pitching against Colby Lewis and I'm really hopeful that Hughes who has been a revelation this year winning 18 regular season games can get the W. If it goes according to plan then we really will be in for a treat on Saturday night with Andy Pettitte trying to revenge his earlier lose against the formidable Cliff Lee. Only 4 or 5 teams in the history of the ALCS have come back from 3-1 down. One time please Yankees.

So back on topic and I thought I would be recommending a bet on New England on the money line this weekend. I do like their chances still but having studied the match up i've decided to go long on the points instead.

The line is generally set at 47, and I think it should probably be as high as 50.

New England are the league's highest point scorers so far this season with an average of 30.8. Yes, they have lost Randy Moss but that didn't seem to slow them down last week with a solid victory against Baltimore. Brady is a hall of fame quality QB and has one of the best arms in the business, he knows how to find his players and I'm sure the likes of Wes Welker, Deon Branch, Aaron Hernandez and Co are relishing the extra work they are going to get now Moss has departed.

They are conceding points too, at an average of 23.2 per game.

Now looking at the Chargers set up, if I'd of suggested pre-season that San Diego would lose back to back games against Oakland and St Louis you'd have though that i'd gone mad. But thats exactly what has happened these last 2 weeks, yet they are still ranked no.1 in the NFL for offense. Its a crazy world. Points wise they are 5th overall averaging 26.2 a game and conceding an average of 21.0.

A crude mathmatical equation suggests to me the line should be around 50.5 taking in to account points scored and conceded by each team. Injury doubts concerning Floyd and Gates will be of concern to the Chargers but Gates is unlikely to miss the action having played the last 85+ games, it will have to be very serious to keep him out. The special teams have been letting the side down, but Phillip Rivers has not. Expect him to find his TE and recievers again this week and put plenty of points on the board.

1pt over 47 points 10/11 (generally)

Week 7 Lines.

2010-10-20T11:26:00.002+01:00

I have been spending most of this morning on life tilt. Trying to find a flight back to the UK in time for the Wembley NFL match is proving a pain in the proverbial. Unless I want to go now (a little early) the flights are three times as much due to what I am told is half-term week. Marvellous. I'll pay through the nose so a bunch of cider swigging half wits can have a week off.

Anyway, onto week 7 and I have compiled the handicap lines as I see them. I'll spend the next day or so looking at the matchups and will hopefully be posting a 3rd straight winning bet before the weekend arrives.

at New Orleans -10 Cleveland
Pitsburgh -2.5 @ Miami
at Chicago -1.5 Washington
at Atlanta -3 Cincinnati
at Tennesse -3.5 Philadelphia
San Francisco -2.5 @ Carolina
at Tampa Bay -3 St Louis
at Baltimore -10 Buffalo
at Kansas -3 Jacksonville
at Seattle -3 Arizona
at Denver -6 Oakland
New England @ San Diego PK
at Green Bay -1.5 Minnesota
at Dallas -3 New York Giants

IPO Trip Report

2010-10-19T10:33:00.009+01:00

Nice to see the Jets covering by one point at the weekend. Maybe that's a sign of things starting to go our way. I'll be looking at next weeks match ups throughout the week.

I've never blogged about poker before but a few people mentioned that I should give it a go so I figured why not start with the Boylesports International Poker Open.

SPOILER: It doesn't end well!

I had been to Dublin a month or so ago for the UKIPT where I had found the standard pretty awful, still I managed to fade the money by about 12 or 13 spots but thats fairly typical. I wasn't anywhere near as motivated for the IPO to be honest, Dublin is not my favourite place and with the Euro as strong as it is it becomes one of the most expensive cities in the world (or at least that i've visited).

I flew in from Alicante on Friday afternoon with Ryanair. I've been doing a fair bit of travelling lately and although far from the best, Ryanair has been doing the job ok at the lowest prices. This Friday afternoon flight was a bit different, it was full of vermin. Kids running around screaming, bogites getting drunk and yelling, just a real bunch of low lifes. In fact if ever a plane deserved to go down it was that one, wait..hold on - nah it deserved to go down.

I was staying in the Dublin Skylon Hotel as the Regency was full by the time I got round to booking anything. It was literally a 10 minute walk and for once the rain managed to hold off so it wasn't any bother.

I went out on the Friday night and in true Nutty style got tore into as much Guinness and Whisky as I could possibly handle and then some more.

Waking up for day 1b on Saturday wasn't any trouble however and after a decent breakfast I was at the Regency ready to roll. The main reason why my motivation had been lower for this tournament was because I (along with a small % of others) was to start the comp with 25% less chips than anyone who could be arsed to run off 1000ish hands on Boyles Poker. Pretty retarded if you ask me but it's one of the reasons why I won't be going back next year.

I started on Table 55 seat 7 which wasn't in the main room. In fact the table looked like it had been bought in from a local home game and trying to squeeze 10 players around it was pretty comical. Fortunately everything else about the table was to my liking.

I managed to grind my stack up from 8k to 12k pretty quickly by just opening in position and c-betting any flop when one of the blinds decided to defend. There were 2 decent players on my table, one local guy called Michael Coyne (who cashed in 60th) was directly to my right and then there was Dave Masters, directly to my left who was also a bounty. Dave arrived late and fortunately seemed to be card dead for the duration. Michael was giving me the most problems despite his position, but as my stack grew it became more awkward for him to do so.

At the first break I had 22k and was having a great deal of fun opening my full range. One hand that lead to some futher action was when I opened the HJ with A9cc making it 275 at (50/100) and the BB called. Flop came 9 7 3 rainbow and villain checked it to me. I c-bet for 400 and the BB flats. It really felt like a float, he just didn't seem to want to give it up against this serial raiser. I was sure he was going to lead the turn and I was going to raise pretty much any turn card.
The 10c fell on the turn and it looked like a blank to me. BB leads for 900 into a 1400 pot and I insta raise to 2300.

After a long time in the tank (where i figured I must be good) he folds the 10Jo face up. I showed my hand which probably ended up costing him his torunament life, as he 4 bet jammed into me after the break when I was holding pocket Kings.

At this point I started to run real good. It's not often I'm keen to get into race situations but I was winning them all and after running pocket Kings into Pocket Aces pre flop I said "I have outs" and right enough I turned top set to knock out another oppo.

I then took the bounty of Dave Masters who in his defence was absolutely card dead. Folded to my small blind I looked down at pocket fours and picked up a stack more than enough to put Dave all in. Dave calls with KQo and a 4 on the flop ends it quickly.

So at the 2nd break (100/200) I have circa 75k and feeling pretty good about how things have gone.

Then I start to take a bit of a nose dive. I'm still stacking chips from a previous pot when I see MP1 open for 3x, the CO flats and I come along for the ride on the button with J9cc.

The flop comes Kc 7s 10c which looks like a fairly good flop for me ;o). MP1 checks, CO leads for half the pot which was slightly strange as it represented almost half his stack. I figured he has a big hand here but I'm fairly happy that i've got 16 outs twice - if he has a hand like AK then i've got about 55% so I move all in to get it heads up, and as expected MP1 gets out of the way. CO then does his best Helmuth impression by pushing his chips in and jumping out of his seat while displaying pocket tens for 2nd set. I still have about 42%.... but hold on, i've mis-read my hand. While busy stacking chips i've not realised that I am holding Js9c. Marvellous.

In reality I have about 28% and to rub it in the Ac falls on the turn giving me what could or would have been the winning hand. Oh well, no more mistakes please.

I was very aware of the amount of short stacks on my table now, the tournament didn't take long before it became a crapshoot with the average stack never very much above 10-12 BBs. I had to avoid these stacks 3 bet jamming my opens and the slightly bigger ones re-stealing on any 3 bets I made.

There was one guy who let me continually pound on his BB from the CO. I saw him limp/fold 8bbs or less at least 3 times. Why do these people bother?

So my first major downfall happened soon after a bigger stack (40kish) moved to seat 4. Another local who seemed to be fairly ABC but was raising his fair share of hands. In fact he had c-bet 100% of his opening range and had double barrelled twice to take down the pots without showdown. I wanted to put this guy to the test with my position and because he was the next biggest stack I figured he would less likely want to tango with me.

I don't remember his name so for the purpose of this report I will now refer to him as Local Villain. So Local Villain opens for 4x in MP2 and I decide to peel the button with 78cc (it's the top of my range ;o)).

The flop comes 3c 5d 7s and Local Villain checks. I've bet a lot worse flops than this in my time so this one looks like the nuts to me. I lead with a 75% pot bet and he clicks it back almost instantly. Warning: the rest of this hand is pretty ugly.

I stick it in and he tanks for like 8 weeks before making the call with pocket Queens. Ty for the slow roll.
That takes me down to about 40k which in all honesty I never really recover from. I get a move into the main room and find a tight player opening for 3x UTG2, another tight player flatting in MP2 and I look down at AKo in the BB with about 11 BBs. It's a no brainer so I shove, UTG tank calls for a very similar stack (LOL) and MP2 folds. UTG has 88 and its good game me when the board bricks out.

People talk about how much fun the IPO is, yeah I had some good banter throughout the day - and a shout out goes to Michael Coyne who provided a lot of that banter and went on to cash in what was a solid display of grinding. Yet, tournament poker sucks if you don't win, thats the reality. The buy in is small because it is aiming to attract the most players every year but really the cost of the trip far out weighs any equity a £200 tournament offers, plus the structure left a lot to be desired. For anyone that lives locally its a great tournament to play but as for flying there next year, its odds against.

Next stop will likely be the 100k gtd at Dusk Till Dawn on 6/7th November, where I hope to improve on recent form.

Week 6 Bet.

2010-10-13T10:07:00.007+01:00

Looking through the lines available this week there doesn't seem to be too many areas that differ from my views.

Having reviewed them all I have decided that there is some value in backing the New York Jets this weekend. I had given them 4.5 points to overcome on the road to Denver and I actually think that might be a tad on the low side. As I write, Boyles give The Broncos only a 3 point start at 10/11.

The Jets are getting the job done. I think LT and Shonn Greene will be rubbing their hands together in anticipation of this match up as I envisage the Jets literally running all over Denver.

The Jets ranked no.1 for rushing are facing a poor Denver D ranked 25th defending the rush. It all adds up to plenty of yardage. Make sure you have Jets RBs in your fantasy team this weekend!

Kyle Orton has been on form and currently has the 2-3 Broncos ranked 2nd for passing offense. Lets not read too much into that at this stage because they cannot run the ball, they are 32nd for rushing, so this will leave a Jets team (who last season were the no.1 pass defense) with little else to worry about. Of course it will be nice if Revis is fit but even if he is rested they have plenty of other tools.

The Jets are averaging 27 points a game and the Broncos 20.8 on offense and conceding 16.2 (Jets) to 23.2 (Broncos) on defense.

The more I look at this match up the more I can see the Jets in complete control, defending hard against the pass and running all over the Broncos D.

1pt New York Jets -3 10/11 Boyles.

I won't be about this weekend which will mean no X factor posts. If you are having a bet or trading the elimination market make sure you get an early look at what each act is singing because it can get you into some good early positions. As it happens I think it might just be a bit of a non entity this week. I'm off to Dublin from Friday - Monday and I may post about the trip when I return. Until then, lets go Jets.

Week 6 Lines

2010-10-12T14:09:00.002+01:00

Just a quick post with my thoughts on how week 6 will look.

at Philadelphia -1.5 Atlanta
at Chicago -6 Seattle
at Pitsburgh -9 Cleveland
at New York Giants -7.5 Detroit
at New England -1.5 Baltimore
San Diego -9.5 @ St Louis
at Green Bay -3.5 Miami
New Orleans -4.5 @ Tampa Bay
at Houston -6 Kansas
New York Jets -4.5 @ Denver
at San Francisco -3 Oakland
at Minnesota -4.5 Dallas
Indianapolis -3 @ Washington
Tennessee -4.5 @ Jacksonville

I'm off to Dublin on Friday for the IPO, so I'll try and get a bet up sometime on Thursday.

Dodging Bullets Baby!

2010-10-11T15:02:00.007+01:00

Following on from my last post I forgot to include what turned out to be an all important scenario.

Scenario 3): All judges invite 1 act back, call them a wildcard and they each bring 4 acts to the live show.

Now obviously had I considered this I wouldn't have been laying the "any other" option. To be honest looking back it was something that needed consideration. The show was longer than any other opening show had been and it wouldn't be considered fair for one judge to have a numerical advantage.

Having watched the show I grew a little in confidence. Wagner will survive a few weeks for comedy value, TreyC is very good and Diva Feva like Wagner will become boring in the coming weeks. In my mind that left Paije as a danger, he sounded awful, looked awful and sang a ridiculous song. I expect him to be bottom two next week.

So having dodged that bullet we ended up getting the lot with Nicolo getting the boot first (previously tipped on this blog).

As far as the winner goes it is no suprise to us at Nutty Towers that Aiden is now favourite. Aiden, tipped up here at 10/1 is generally around 4/1 now. We also have a bet on Cher and to be honest I don't expect to be collecting on that. I think she has given her best performance (1st audition),she isn't really likeable and I imagine her fading out around 5th or 6th, I hope i'm wrong because a different type of act winning might just help the show continue in future years.

Atlanta Falcons covered the spread in Cleveland this week getting us off the mark for the NFL season so hopefully we can kick on from there and find another winner for week 6.

I've just arrived back in Spain so will be taking it easy for the rest of the day and intend to post my week 6 lines tomorrow.

X Factor Coup?

2010-10-08T22:35:00.002+01:00

There was quite a lot of interest into my claim on Facebook that I had found "The bet of the year" so rather than reply to all I figured I'd post my thoughts here....

As some of you will know the X Factor returns on Saturday with their live shows. There has been quite a lot of controversey surrounding the selections made by some of the judges this year. Whether or not that has anything to do with the "twist" the show is adding is unknown.

However, the "twist" is that each judge can nominate an act that they didn't put through, and then there will be a public vote allowing one of these acts to join the live shows.

The selected acts as I understand it are as follows: (Groups) Diva Feva, (Boys) Paije, (Girls) TreyC and (Over 28s) Wagner.

I would imagine one of the two scenarios will occur:

1) We will be invited to vote for the act we want to see make the live shows and the results will be given on the Sunday show (allowing for plenty of votes).

If this scenario is correct then an act will be eliminated before the new act joins the live show.

2) We will be invited to vote for the act we want to see make the live shows at the beginning of Saturday's show with the winning act singing live at the end of show.

This will mean they too could be eliminated in the first week.

Either way, I am fairly certain the new addition to the show will not be booted out first. Obviously the first scenario is better but even if the second scenario turns out to be correct, how likely are the public to vote in another act, giving them a reprieve only to boot them out a couple of hours later?

With this in mind I have been laying "Any other" to be first to be eliminated on Betfair. There isn't a lot of liquidity but it has been possible to do blocks every now and again. I have layed bits as short as 2/1 or thereabouts and will continue to do so until the show starts.

It just seems a gift to me.

Missed The Boat

2010-10-08T09:51:00.005+01:00

I had made Carolina 2.5 point favourites this week in their game against Chicago and very early lines released from Vegas and then the UK firms showed they disagreed with me giving The Panthers a 2.5 start.

It was my intention to back them on this line but having looked again it appears they have changed and they now make Carolina generally 1 point favourties. Looks like i've missed the boat here because I can't back them now after a 3.5 point swing. That will teach me to delay matters and not get on early.

So where to for this weeks bet? I had intended two singles and a small double but we are now left with just one single and that rests with Atlanta. I'd given the Falcons 5.5 points to cover for their trip to Cleveland but it is possible to get them at -3 at evens, and that looks like a bet to me.

Cleveland have started 1-3 with a sole win over Cincinnati.

Altlanta top their division with a 3-1 record which includes a narrow win over current Champions, New Orleans. Looking through all the stats The Browns do not match up closely in any area.

The Falcons also welcome back WR Michael Jenkins for this game and with plenty of rushing talent in Turner and Snelling I can see them covering the 5.5 points I made it, so even money for 3 points should be a walk in the park.

1pt Atlanta -3 Evs (Paddy Power, Bwin) @ Cleveland

Week 5 Lines.

2010-10-05T11:20:00.003+01:00

I am going to spend today studying some of the week 5 match ups so this is a quick post with my ideas of what the lines should be.

Jacksonville -2.5 @ Buffalo
at Baltimore -6 Denver
at Indianapolis -7.5 kansas
Green Bay -2.5 @ Washington
at Detroit -2 St Louis
at Caroliona -2.5 Chicago
at Cincinnati -4.5 Tampa
Atlanta -5.5 @ Cleveland
at Houston -2.5 New York Giants
New Orleans -6 @ Arizona
at Dallas -6 Tennesse
San Diego -6 @ Oakland
at San Francisco -2.5 Philadelphia
at New York Jets -3 Minnesota

I expect the firms to price up the matches today or tomorrow in which time i'll be ready. Lets googogo.

A Good No Bet Week.

2010-10-04T17:45:00.007+01:00

It's been a pretty good sporting weekend. I've been glued to the Golf this week and managed to come out slightly ahead having backed a few top point scorers.

It's a shame they had to hold it in Wales in October (or Wales at all really) but it did prolong the action and a lazy Monday in front of the TV watching top sporting action is never a bad thing.

I didn't have a bet on the NFL this week, most of my early lines were very similar to that of Vegas and the firms and I really couldn't find anything I liked enough to invest, which on reflection with a few suprise results probably wasn't a bad thing.

Another favourite of mine is the X Factor (possible spoiler alert coming up). This weekend showed the remaining contestants at the Judge's houses awaiting their fate. Of course the final 12 have been fairly common knowledge for some time now but it still makes good TV.

What always makes me laugh when these shows are aired is the constant bitching about the decisions made on people's Facebook status'.

I'm sure Simon Cowell loves the attention as it displays the popularity of the show even now it's in season 7 but I can't understand a lot of it.

I saw one status that claimed to "HATE" Cher Lloyd. Wow, a kid (just turned 17) taking a shot at her dream and within a couple of hour long shows you hate her? Got to imagine that persons life isn't up to much.

I also saw another one that was happy to confirm Cheryl Cole's racisim because she didn't select Gamu.
I happen to believe that Gamu was the best vocalist in the competition, but I also understand her visa had run out and it is likely the show didn't want to risk her when she was very possibly going to get deported. Was she better than Katie, of course she was, it wasn't even close, but lets not get carried away calling Ms Cole a racist, or perhaps that was why she divorced Ashley?

There is to be a twist to this weekend's first live show, and although this is by no means confirmed (the firms are still betting wider than the final 12) my understanding is that there might be another contestant added to the field via a viewers vote. If that is the case I encourage you to vote for Gamu.

My bets on X factor so far have been limited, I wanted to back Gamu, but won't until she is a confirmed runner. I have backed Aiden Grimshaw at 10/1, who I think will improve every week and is very likely to be popular with the female viewers, I've had a bit on Cher Lloyd too at 9/1, she is different to any other act, Simon might realise that he can't keep churning out ballad singers and well racist or not, Cheryl really likes Cher and I get the feeling she might just concentrate most of her efforts on her.

Difficult to say who will be first out at the moment, Katie, who is getting some bad press because Gamu missed out is the early favourite, but I think there might be some mileage in Nicolo Festa going first at 8/1. He's not going to have a strong fan base from Italy and against 2 other very strong contenders in his category might struggle to avoid the bottom two.

More to come this week, I'll be studying the NFL matchups hard this week, I'll be looking into the Baseball playoffs, keeping my ears open for any X Factor news and playing a little Poker.

So until then happy punting.

Tilt Issues.

2010-09-27T10:28:00.008+01:00

[ ] Good start.

It wasn't much of a weekend all things considered. So many things went wrong I thought I'd just make a list.

Things that went wrong this week:
1) Gale force winds blew out the satellite connection = No TV
2) Not being able to find a free view of NFL from Spanish IP
3) IP hidden proxy only managed to show the game in extreme slow motion
4) Redskins dismal performance
5) Following Trigg in on a Saints bet
6) Not following Rooks in on a Kansas bet
7) Following Rooks in on a Giants bet
8) Redskins dismal Performance
9) Everybody in my fantasy team
10) Texans

Things that went right this weekend:
......

Thats enough moaning, I'm heading back to London on Wednesday for some more live poker so at least I won't have any satellite issues next weekend.

On to the task at hand, lines for week 4.

New York Jets -3.5 @ Buffalo
at Tennesse -6 Denver
Cincinatti -3.5 @ Cleveland
at New Orleans -10 Carolina
at Pitsburgh - 2.5 Baltimore
at Atlanta -9 San Francisco
Seattle -1.5 @ St Louis
at Green Bay -10 Detroit
Houston -4.5 @ Oakland
Indianapolis -5.5 @ Jacksonville
at Philadelphia -4.5 Washington
at San Diego -7 Arizona
at New York Giants -3 Chicago
at Miami -1.5 New England

These lines represent my early thoughts, obviously it is possible events in tonight's game between the Bears and the Packers could alter things but as soon as the firms have put their lines up i'll post a comparison. I'll be busy travelling on Wednesday so I anticiapte having a bet posted up on Thursday.

And here ends the tilt.

Back in Business 2010/11

2010-09-22T17:15:00.005+01:00

As is the norm here at Nutty Towers we prefer to let the season get under way and take in a couple of weeks action before wading in.

It's great to have the NFL back as it really does brighten up Sunday nights. I've watched as much of the action as is humanely possible so far and having had two outright bets on Green Bay and Houston, I'm quite excited about their chances with both teams opening up 2-0.

There will obviously be a lot tougher games ahead for Green Bay but I think they have the tools to have a deep post season run and as for Houston well they showed their class when beating their main divisional rivals in week 1 and then showed their steel by fighting back against the Skins from 27-10 down, nicking it in OT.

I have been busy this week so didn't get a chance to compile my lines before seeing what was on offer so the exercise seems pointless for week 3. I do intend to get them done on Monday's again as we did last year.

So on to this weeks action and I am going to be backing Donovan McNabb to get the job done in St Louis. Mcnabb was a high profile trade this off season leaving Philadelphia for their divisional rivals Washington and they look like a decent outfit.

They opened with a low scoring victory against Dallas in week 1 and were involved in a titanic battle with Houston in week 2 where both Quarterbacks threw for over 400 yards.

If Mcnabb finds any form similar to that they should tear apart a weak St Louis side. St Louis have started 0-2 and having lost to Oakland in week 2 it really does not look good for the Rams.

Moss, Galloway, Cooley and Davis could all put up a lot of yardage this weekend.

St Louis have lost both their games to teams who have been well beaten in their other matchups and I think this could be a stroll in the park for The Skins, I wouldn't be suprised if the score was something in the region of 31-14.

So with that in mind the bet this week is with Paddy Power where they give the Skins only 3 points to cover at 10/11.

Recommendation: 2pts Washington Redskins -3 (St Louis) 10/11

In Training

2010-05-20T12:41:00.002+01:00

The blog will return in late August for the start of the NFL season. In the interim I am in training and will be running a half marathon in October in support of the charity Mencap.

It will be the first of many leading up to an intended marathon in New York in 2011. Please support both me and Mencap by donating whatever you can at my just giving page.

http://justgiving.co.uk/NuttyNick

Fan Feedback

2010-02-15T12:36:00.002Z

It looks like I've picked up a fan by the name of Jersey Dan.

I thought I'd start a post for the first time with a little rhyme. In fact that's two now so I'm going to stop.

I received a comment on my "Season ROI" post from a guy calling himself Jersey Dan. While writing a blog that is open to everyone I of course leave myself open to criticism and that's fine. Nobody could top the stick I received when I ventured to Flushy's house a while back anyway.

However, while I accept and and even welcome views from others what I will not accept is accusations that are not true. Jersey Dan claims that I have been changing my picks during game time. Now this is absurd. As many of you know - my readers basically consist of a few friends and ex-colleagues - when I have posted a bet I have done so well before game time and advertised the fact via Facebook and Twitter and on occasions via email. I have placed the bets myself and I know some of you have followed me in on occasion, so editing the post would not only be pointless but it would be highlighted. In fact on a few occasions when I have discussed my bets and thoughts on the the NFL thread on www.blondepoker.com nobody has at any stage thought I have changed my picks.

Jersey Dan doesn't explain why he thinks I have changed my picks, and offers no evidence. The only thing I know about him is that he opened a twitter account for the sole purpose of replying to one of my tweets. Dan claims that my blog is now a place where he and his buddies like to go to have a laugh. I doubt this, I really do, can you see someone who sets up a blog and a twitter account just to make false accusations having any buddies? No, neither do I.

I appreciate your comments Dan and I continue to welcome them, but please support them with evidence in the future or why not show off your ability in finding winners by explaining why you agree/disagree with my thoughts in the comments section below each post.

18.54% ROI is nothing to crow about whatsoever, especially having given 7 consecutive winning picks at the start of the season. I will continue to blog for if nothing else a way to record my profit and loss and I am not going to try and kid myself in the process.

Season ROI

2010-02-11T09:55:00.003Z

So that's it, no more football for six months.

The Superbowl was probably a little disappointing in many people's eyes because so much was expected. We never saw the shootout spectacle that we all anticipated but I'm sure the people of New Orleans won't care one little bit.

It seems ironic really after all the talk about Peyton Manning being the best of all time that it was he that was picked off for the decisive play.

Drew Brees quite rightly won the MVP award but it could have been so different. Our 25/1 tip (tipped up in the Racing Post at 20/1) started very well. Joseph Addai rushed for 77 yards and 1 touchdown and an Indianapolis win may well have seen him take the award.

The next action us NFL fans have is the draft and I may well draw up some ideas of what each team will be looking for nearer the time. Before that though we do have the start of Major League Baseball and I will post a preview of the season with some ante-post bets as we prepare to tackle the bookies once again. At the moment only World Series prices are available so when the firms publish the rest of their markets I will be ready to pounce.

So how did we do betting wise? I was disappointed with our regular season figure of 20.6% ROI and we didn't improve in the post season.

We had a nice touch when The Jets beat The Chargers but had Green Bay beaten Arizona things would have been so different. Our Post Season figures are even less appealing returning 18%.

When toting up all bets for both the regular and post seasons our ROI stands at 18.54%.

It is a profit, of course - but we wouldn't expect anything less. Lets hope the new MLB season brings richer rewards. There is also a new season of Britain's Got Talent on the horizon so hopefully we can follow up on last years 25/1 success.

Superbowl!

2010-02-04T13:55:00.004Z

This is a long overdue post, but I have been fairly busy and sometimes it is difficult to find the time to write but we do have the Greatest Show on Earth coming up and a few interest bets at least need placing.

I said I expected the line on New Orleans to shorten and it has in the main, pretty much all firms go +4.5 from +5.5. I won't be on it though, I can see the Saints scoring regularly but I can't see them stopping Peyton Manning who in my opinion will score at will. The Saints will put up some numbers too and that's why my first interest bet will be on the overs. The line currently is 56.6 although ToteSport go 55.5 so we'll shop there.

0.5pt Total points over 55.5 @ 10/11 ToteSport.

It's far more fun chasing the overs, at least we can hope for the game it promises to be. My next bets surround the MVP market. Manning is odds on for this and perhaps rightly so, but we can't for one minute expect that to be a value bet. Instead I am going to back two running backs at big prices. Again, these are small interest bets so no need to go mad.

First up is Reggie Bush, who had an incredible individual performance against Arizona, anything similar and he will win the award. The Saints use him regularly on all downs and he also plays a big part on Special Teams so he has every chance. Paddy Power are a stand out best price 20/1.

The other running back we will be investing in is Joseph Addai, he is the main man at Indianapolis and will also be used for receiving in the red zone. A couple of touchdowns from him could seal the award. Addai is as short as 7/1 in a place and the Magic Sign make him 9/1 but for reasons best known to themselves Paddy Power make him 25/1. Take it before they wake up from their stupor.

0.5pt Joseph Addai 25/1 MVP
0.5pt Reggie Bush 20/1 MVP both Paddy Power.

Apologies for the short post, but I am currently 4 tabling 90 man sngs on Stars. Enjoy the game, it really should be a cracker. I'll have a review up sometime next week which will include a season ROI discussion.

No Fairytale Ending For Favre.

2010-01-25T12:13:00.004Z

Adrian Peterson rushed for over 100 yards for the first time in 9 matches, he also added 3 touchdowns but it was the fumbles that cost the Vikings a trip to South Florida and Superbowl XLIV.

How Brett Favre still manages to perform to the level that he does at 40 is a testament in it self. Favre was hit regularly by the Saint's defense but he continued to chase the fairytale ending that all neutrals longed for.

It was not to be as fumble after fumble stifled the Vikings progress allowing an overtime victory for New Orleans who won their first Conference title and head to the Superbowl for the first time in franchise history.

And what a game it promises to be in Miami, where the number one seed in the NFC will take on the number one seed in the AFC after Peyton Manning ended the hopes of all Jets fans.

New York gave it their all and Sanchez performed better than anyone anticipated throwing for 257 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Unfortunately this ended the hopes of Nutty Sports in the quest for another winner. It was however a joy to watch Peyton Manning out fox the Jets. As the game progressed it was clear to see that Manning had found the formula to unlock the number one D-Line in the NFL.

Arguments could be made for Peyton Manning being the greatest of all time and if he goes on to win his 2nd World Championship ring in Miami then who would oppose such thoughts?

We have 2 weeks until the big show and there will be plenty of promise as the commentators bill this as the battle of the quarterbacks.

So how do I see this playing out? The Colts have to be favourites and rightly so. Their much underrated D-Line has so much pace they can stop anyone and that includes the very talented Drew Brees.

Early indications suggest that the UK firms are making Indianapolis 5.5 point favourites but that might be a little too high. Make no mistake New Orleans will put up some numbers. In my mind I had The Colts at around 3.5-4 point favourites. I am not recommending anything at such an early stage but the Manning hype is in overdrive at the moment and that may result in the firms trimming that line nearer the off time.

I will be updating the blog during the week and will discuss many different individual match ups that we can look forward to in Miami. In the meantime enjoy the build up it's going to be a great show!

Something A Bit Different.

2010-01-19T11:55:00.003Z

I've decided to leave the match up between Minnesota and New Orleans alone. I won't be having any sort of bet in this game because I think anything is possible. I will just enjoy what I hope will be a spectacle.

As for the match up between Indianapolis and New York Jets I have something a bit different. I am going to go short on the points. It is possible to get under 40.5 points with William Hill and Totesport.

My initial line was as low as 36.5 so I have studied the stats and how the teams match up. Lets start with the basics. The Colts are ranked no.2 in the NFL for pass offense averaging 26.0 points per game. The Jets are ranked no.1 in the NFL for pass defense conceding an average of 14.8 per game. (for the record Colts concede an average of 19.2 and Jets score 21.8).

So what happens when the best passing offense meets the best passing defense? Hard to say, so lets break it down some more. The Colts have scored an average of 23.87 points at home during the regular season (conceding 16.66).

The Jets have scored an average of 23.3 points per game on the road, slightly more than their overall average (conceding 15.5).

An interesting point here is that the Colts have only played 2 teams that finished with a winning record and the Jets have only faced one. I think this game could be a very low scoring affair.

This game is going to be tight. I think it obvious also that the Colts will pass the ball and the Jets will run the ball. Therefore each team's defensive coordinators will be working on the respective defensive areas.

It might not be exciting going short on total points but it should prove profitable.

1pt under 40.5 total points Jets @ Colts 10/11 Will Hills & Totesport.

Conference Championship Lines.

2010-01-18T12:07:00.003Z

We lost Dallas this weekend after they were mauled in the Dome by The Vikings. Dallas had a lot of early possession but could not convert that into points. The NFC Championship game will now be contested between the number 1 and 2 seeds as Minnesota travel to New Orleans.

The story was slightly different in the last of the divisional matches as The New York Jets D-Line won the day by limiting San Diego to just 2 scores. We collected on both bets and that puts us in profit for the post season.

The Jets now travel to Indianapolis where they won against a weakened side a few weeks ago giving them the opportunity to make a charge at the play offs.

I worry about Mark Sanchez though. He found his tightend, Dustin Keller, for a touchdown in the 4th quarter last night but he does not inspire confidence. San Diego were able to defend well against New York early on because they could concentrate on their running game knowing it unlikely Sanchez will find big plays down the field. Indy will do the same and The Jets D-Line will be working overtime trying to Stop Manning and Co.

Both games have a lot of potential as you would expect at this stage of the season. I have compiled my lines below.

Sunday 24th 8pm.

at Indianapolis -7 New York Jets

Sunday 24th 11.30pm.

at New Orleans -6 Minnesota

As we only have 2 matches it is obviously less likely that we will find a bet so I thought I'd compile my ideas on the total points which I have added below.

at Indianapolis New York Jets 36.5

at New Orleans Minnesota 51.5

I will also be having a good look through all other markets on offer during the week, hopefully something worth backing will rear it's head.

Regular Season Betting Review.

2010-01-14T12:55:00.004Z

I think it's time to review our P&L for the regular NFL season. We still have some outstanding bets to come but this review will be for match bets only.

I will review the post season and outright after the season is completed. So far we have a ROI of 20.6%. Having started the season so well it is a disappointing figure but the fact is we are ahead and that is the main thing. Making money.

The bets are listed below.

1. No bet.
2. No bet.
3. 1pt Denver @ Oakland 5/6 W
4. 1pt Tampa Bay +7.5 10/11 @ Washington W
5. 1pt Indianapolis -3 10/11 @ Tennessee W
6. 1pt Buffalo +10 10/11 New York Jets W
7. 2pts New Orleans -6 10/11 @ Miami W
8. 1pt Dallas -9.5 10/11 Seattle W
9. 1pt Carolina +14 8/9 @ New Orleans W
10. 2pts New Orleans -13.5 10/11 @ St Louis L
11. 1pt Tennessee +5 10/11 @ Houston W
12. 1pt Miami -3 4/5 @ Buffalo L
13. 1pt Houston +1 10/11 @ Jacksonville L
14. No bet.
15. 1pt Green Bay 11/10 @ Pittsburgh L
1pt New York Giants -3 11/10 @ Washington W
16. 1pt Buffalo +9 10/11 @ Atlanta L
17. No bet.

I went "off the rails" towards the end of the season and I think that understandable to some degree. As the weeks go on the firms make fewer and fewer mistakes and therefore as I have said before it is harder to find a good bet. Although we were fortunate in some matches early on we were certainly unlucky in a few towards the end of the campaign, Green Bay's defeat at Pittsburgh particularly stands out.

Looking back at some of the bets we certainly got on the right side of some good things. Our week 5 bet with The Colts surrendering only 3 points looks a mighty fine line now, likewise our first bet with Denver from scratch.

The play offs are not going to be straight forward either as all the teams have title credentials, hopefully we will be on the right side of things to come.

The Texans although finishing 9-7 threw away their chances of post season football at Jacksonville and if we are clutching at straws then we could consider ourselves unlucky that Matt Schaubb injured his shoulder in the 1st quarter. We obviously lost on the outright there but we are in a good position with Dallas. We backed them at 26/1 (posted Friday 27th November) and if laying off is your thing you can now do so at 15/2 on the exchanges. Personally I'll be keeping the bet because I don't like to give up good positions. It is only possible to lay off when things go your way so why detract from maximising profits? Lets hope The Cowboy's give us a real run for our money.

I will conduct another review after events have unfolded in Miami next month.

Divisional Play Off Bet.

2010-01-13T12:32:00.004Z

If the action is any where near as good as last week we are in for a treat. I'll start by posting the Vegas lines with my lines in brackets.

Saturday 16th 9.30pm

at New Orleans - 7 (6) Arizona

Saturday 16th 12.15am

at Indianapolis - 6.5 (6) Baltimore

Sunday 17th 6pm

at Minnesota - 3 (1.5) Dallas

Sunday 17th 9.40pm

at San Diego - 7 (4.5) New York Jets

Firstly I wouldn't put anyone off a bet on Dallas. Not only on the handicap but the 5/4 currently offered by William Hill looks like a big price to me. I will be having a little bit on but seeing as I am wrapped up with the Cowboys on the outright it won't be my main bet this weekend.

I'll be taking on San Diego this week. New York Jets match up very well against The Chargers. The Jets who are ranked 1st for rush yards in the NFL (172.2) should have plenty of success against a D-Line ranked 20th conceding 117.8 rushing yards per game.

The counter argument form San Diego fans will be the form of Philip Rivers and the passing game where they are ranked 11th with 209.2 yards per game, but they won't find The Jets so accommodating in this area. New York are ranked 1st in the NFL for pass defence conceding only 153.7 yards per game.

Furthermore they are ranked no.1 overall on defence averaging only 252.3 yards and take top spot on points conceded too with an average of 14.8.

Yes, the Chargers are on fire but I think the Jets will put them out. Rivers will not find so much room in the secondary and the D-Line will be over worked on the ground. I gave the Chargers only 4.5 points to cover and that was mainly because they are at home. It is possible to get The Jets +7.5 and that is a must bet.

The Giants won the Superbowl on the road in 2008 and their D-Line was responsible for a lot of their big plays. It is hard to win it all on the road but with the right defensive tools it is very possible. The Jets have the tools and that is why I will also be investing a small amount on them to win the match at around 11/4.

I hope you enjoy the action as much as I will. Let go Jets.

2pts New York Jets +7.5 @ 10/11 Generally.
1pt New York Jets 11/4 Generally.

Packers Go Soooo Close.

2010-01-11T13:11:00.004Z

Green Bay were so close to making an incredible come back and in the process give us a winning double but a fumble in O/T handed victory to Arizona.

It was one of the best football matches I have ever seen and that makes defeat a little easier to accept. It was the highest scoring play off match of all time and both O-Lines were in fantastic form. Arizona are rewarded with a trip to New Orleans where I expect the point spread to be sky high.

Dallas had got us of to a winning start with another convincing win against The Eagles and are now best price 7/1 to win it all. I will be cheering on the Cowboys in Minnesota next weekend,where I like their chances.

New York destroyed Cincinnati's hopes and they now travel to San Diego where they actually match up quite well. Having scraped into the Play Offs on week 17 they may well feel they have nothing to lose and could quite easily upset Phillip Rivers and his in form team. I expect that to be another great match.

Baltimore came firing out of the blocks against New England and pretty much won the game in the 1st Quarter. They now travel to favourites Indianapolis where their running game will test the Colts D-Line.

So on to next weekend and I have compiled my lines below. (Times are GMT).

Saturday 16th 9.30pm

at New Orleans -6 Arizona

Saturday 16th 12.15am

at Indianapolis -6 Baltimore

Sunday 17th 6pm

at Minnesota -1.5 Dallas

Sunday 17th 9.40pm

at San Diego - 4.5 New York Jets

Hopefully I will be back with a bet very soon.

Wild Card Weekend.

2010-01-08T13:06:00.005Z

The season hots up this weekend as the Wild Card matches get underway and I have 2 bets I like a lot.

Form is always key when punting and there are 2 fixtures this weekend that are repeats of last weekend. The dynamics will be much different in the Green Bay/Arizona match up because Arizona rested a number of their players but the result should be the same.

Green Bay won the contest 33-7 and they will be full of confidence when they return to Phoenix to tackle the Cardinals again. Green Bay had been as big as 21/20 a few days ago but they are best priced now at 10/11. It is still worth a bet, although anyone that got the odds against has done very well.

Aaron Rodgers has had a fantastic season and his O-Line is full of talented options. Arizona are no pushovers but are much more predictable than the Packers. The NFC West is the weakest of all the divisions and at the moment no other team are close to competing with Arizona.

It might be a lot closer than last week with Arizona fielding their stars but I expect Green Bay to have too much both offensively and defensively for the Cardinals.

The 2nd bet this week is Dallas. Tony Romo has got over his December Jinx and the 25/1 we took on Dallas some weeks ago now looks like a big price.

Philadelphia could have had a bye had they beaten The Cowboys last week but their 24-0 defeat handed their NFC East rivals the title and home field advantage in this game.

When I compiled my lines I made Dallas 6 point favourites but the firms have gone as low as 3.5. Yes, I do expect a better performance from the Eagles but watching the game back from last weekend I can't see the Cowboys throwing this one away.

I am going to have 2 singles and a double this weekend and expect it to be very profitable. The action will be good this weekend and I think our money is safe in the hands of Rodgers and Romo.

2pts Dallas -3.5 @ 10/11 Tote & Paddy Power.
2pts Green Bay 10/11 Generally.

1pt double.

Wild Card Matches.

2010-01-06T12:13:00.004Z

Don't you just love the British way. Here is a nation with the greatest history. Packed with great leaders, explorers and warriors. A nation with the best armed forces in the world bar none, a rich and glorious past.

Yet as soon as the wind blows or a bit of snow falls we become utterly useless. Public transport can't function, workforces are limited and everyone stays home with the heating on. I'm not sure today's society would win a World War, Hitler's timing was all out in my opinion.

Anyway on to the action and we have 4 wild card games this week. I felt a bit aggrieved that the Texans didn't make the cut having made an incredible comeback against New England. Denver threw it away against Kansas but Cincinnati couldn't do us a favour and New York Jets take the last AFC spot.

I actually blame Indianapolis for this, had they went for their perfect record last week and kept their star players on the field, The Jets would have been out of the race. Imagine the fuss Wenger would make if Ferguson did something similar in the Premiership.

Nothing we can do now though other than plough on searching for another bet. I have compiled my lines for this weekends action.

Saturday 9.30pm GMT

at Cincinnati -3 Baltimore

Sunday 1am GMT

at Dallas -6 Philadelphia

Sunday 6pm GMT

at New England -4.5 Baltimore

Sunday 9.40pm GMT

at Arizona -1.5 Green Bay

My son is a Green Bay fan so I will be cheering them on with him, I also have a bet on Dallas so as much as it hurts they will also have my support. There is a long way to go yet but for the time being I will study hard to see if there is a bet I like.

By the way, I couldn't be bothered to finish off the Nutties. So no awards this year for the Rookies or Quarterbacks. I'm sure they will get over it.

The Nutties - Part 3, Tight End

2010-01-02T13:43:00.005Z

The job of a Running Back and Wide Receiver is fairly self explanatory. The role of the Tight End may not be so familiar to everyone so I thought I'd start with a brief description.

Tight End (TE) is a position on the offensive team. The tight end is sometimes the last man on the offensive line, but has a slightly different role than other linemen. The role of tight ends can change depending on tactical preferences but their main jobs are blocking for the running back, catching passes from the quarterback and to help develop a stronger pocket by assisting fellow linemen in blocking during passing plays.

To start I will mention a few top TE's that didn't quite make the cut. Kevin Boss of New York and Brent Celek of Philadelphia both had solid seasons. They didn't put up a lot of yardage but both found the end zone on a regular basis - Boss 12 times and Celek 14.

Heath Miller is considered one of the best in the business, but like Pittsburgh he has not had his most productive season.

Another Miller, Zach of Oakland has been solid again. Averaging 13.0 yards per reception he has helped a very mediocre Raiders side in the few matches they have managed to win.

Jason Witten was in many peoples view a suprise inclusion in the NFC Pro Bowl team but he has missed out on a Nuttie, in fact he hasn't made the top 5. 954 yards at an average of 10.8 are decent figures but he has only contributed 1 touchdown and for my money others have played much more significant roles.

So the top 5 are Dallas Clark (Indianapolis), Antonio Gates (San Diego), Kellen Winslow (Tampa Bay), Vernon Davis ( San Francisco) and Visanthe Shiancoe (Minnesota).

Tampa Bay picked up Winslow this season from Cleveland and it was a great acquisition. Winslow puts up good figures year on year and has stood out in what has been a very poor Tampa team. Winslow didn't match his career high stats of 2007 but has had another very productive year with 828 yards at an average of 11.5 scoring 5 touchdowns. For this he grabs 5th place.

4th place is given to Brett favre's favourite red zone target. Visanthe Shiancoe has scored incredibly well for Minnesota this year especially considering how many options they have offensively. Shiancoe can be very proud of his 12 touchdowns this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the end zone during the play offs. Shaincoe does a lot of short work for the Vikings so his 472 yards at an average of 9.6 does not tell the tale of how good he has been.

Dallas Clark stands at the top of the NFL TE rankings but he finished in 3rd place in the race for a Nuttie. Another great season with The Colts who are among the favourites for Superbowl glory, Clark who already has a Superbowl ring has made career high stats this year putting up 1,054 yards at an average of 11.3 and notching 10 touchdowns.

This was a close call but in the end 2nd place is handed to Vernon Davis. The 49ers have not had a good year but their TE has stood out. Davis has contributed a huge 12 touchdowns this season for a team ranked 29th offensively. Davis has added 876 yards at an average of 12.2 per reception.

So the winner is Antonio Gates. The Chargers are on fire and Gates is a major player on their O-Line. With more receiving yards than many WR's Gates has 1,145 yards at a huge average of 14.7. QB Phillip Rivers knows he can rely on Gates for the big plays and quite often will find him free in the end zone. Gates has 7 touchdowns so far and I expect him to play a big part in San Diego's charge for the Superbowl.

Tomorrow I will review the Rookie's performances.

The Nutties - Part 2, Wide Reciever.

2010-01-01T11:39:00.004Z

Some Tightends figure quite high on the receiving rankings this year but I will be reviewing that position tomorrow so they won't be considered for this particular award.

Quite often a receiver will also be used for rushing yardage and vice versa, in fact Ray Rice who was awarded 3rd place in the Running Back category yesterday is actually ranked 50th with 683 receiving yards, but this award is for receptions only.

So lets discuss a few WR's that didn't make the top 5 and the reasons why. It is unlikely that Pittsburgh will make the play offs although they do have a slim chance and having won the lot last year they will view 2009/2010 season as a poor effort. Their 2 main receivers, Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes share a lot of the work and it would be difficult to say exactly who Big Ben prefers. I think he tends to use Ward for the shorter work especially around the red zone and Holmes for the bigger plays. Ward the veteran has broke the 1000 yard barrier for the 6th time, his best year being back in 2002. Whereas this is Homes' first time reaching 1000 in his 3 seasons to date and he may well offer a lot of future promise, but overall his performances have not enthralled us here at Nutty Towers and he hasn't squeezed in either.

Others who have missed the cut but had good seasons include Steve Smith of New York. The Giants were in desperate need of a replacement for Plaxico and Smith has stepped up well, he has made 1,163 yards with an average of 12.0 and he has found the end zone 7 times. Rookie, Hakeem Nicks has supported Smith well putting up 795 yards at an average of 17.3 scoring 6 touchdowns. The future looks very bright for Nicks.

Perhaps the toughest call was leaving out Sidney Rice. After 2 very average seasons in the NFL Rice has finally found his feet. He has been instrumental in The Vikings progress this term and although Favre tends to favour his tightend in the red zone his go to man is Sidney Rice. Rice has made 1,200 yards averaging 15.6 for 6 touchdowns and must consider himself very unfortunate not to have made the top 5, so I will award him the unofficial 6th place.

So on to the top 5 and they are, Desean Jackson (Philadelphia), Andre Johnson (Houston), Miles Austin (Dallas) Randy Moss (New England) and Vincent Jackson (San Diego).

No top 5 would be complete without Randy Moss. No other receiver has notched as many touchdowns as Moss who has 13. His attitude is often questioned but his performances speak for themselves. Moss finishes in 5th spot making 1,189 yards at an average of 15.2.

Dallas have fought back after a slowish start to the season and that in part is due to the form of Miles Austin. Tony Romo needed a receiver and Austin stepped up with 1,230 yards averaging 16.6 with 11 touchdowns. He is a worthy 4th place finisher.

3rd place is awarded to Andre Johnson. Considered by many to be the best WR in the football league Johnson has put up more yards than anyone else. Houston really need to make the post season so his talent can be seen in the big games. Johnson averaged 15.8 yards and has 9 touchdowns to his name. Another very solid season that hopefully will not end this weekend.

San Diego have won 10 games in a row and really look like they will go close this year. They have a very solid outfit and Vincent Jackson has contributed handsomely. Our 2nd placed receiver has 1,167 yards at a very long average of 17.2 adding 9 touchdowns to the chargers cause. Watch out for Jackson in weeks to come as San Diego could well be in Miami in February.

That means our winner is Desean Jackson. Philadelphia have had a strong year, they face the Cowboys on Sunday to fight it out for the division but they have secured a play off spot already. They have a young side and in only his 2nd season Jackson has caught the eye.

Jackson has made 1,120 yards averaging 18.7 yards per reception. No WR has a higher average and his 9 touchdowns has played a huge part in the success of the Eagles this year.

This might be a surprise selection, but nonetheless a deserved one. Watch out for Desean Jackson the winner of the WR Nuttie in the weeks to come.

The Nutties - Part 1, Running Back.

2009-12-31T11:44:00.003Z

It is obviously going to be hard to mention every player that has had a good season but before I talk about the 5 that have made my shortlist I thought I'd briefly discuss a few others that have caught my eye for one reason or another.

I'll start with players who have not lived up to expectations this season and 2 that spring to mind would be Steve Slaton of Houston and Matt Forte of Chicago.

A lot was expected from both players in their second season in the NFL but I felt neither really fulfilled the potential that was expected. I know Slaton is now on the IR list but his early fumbles cost him his place in the side during the year and gave opportunities to Ryan Moats and Chris Brown. When healthy Slaton may well return and live up to the promise but 2009 was not his year.

Similarly with Matt Forte, he was high on many fantasy teams wish lists as some thought Jay Cutler was going to make The Bears a force but it really wasn't to be. Forte drifted in and out of form. His 3.4 yards per carry will not be what he was looking for and he is ranked 20th overall with total rushing yards of 827, compare this to his rookie season in 2008 when he notched up 1,238 and things have not progressed for Forte or Chicago.

A few names that I'd like to mention positively are Rashad Mendenhall who has had a solid season for Pittsburgh breaking the 1000 yard mark and has really made the RB position his own in the last few weeks.

Denver found a peach in rookie Knoshon Moreno who has managed 897 yards averaging 3.8 a carry and he looks like he will offer the Broncos a lot more in seasons to come.

Deangelo Williams will feature in a lot of top 5's but due to recent injuries he is just going to miss out. Carolina have a wealth of talent at RB, I think Jonathan Stewart could walk into any NFL team and play a big part it just seems unfortunate for him that he has Williams to compete with.

Both Stewart and Williams have more than 1000 yards on the board and if the Panthers can plug a few holes in the off season they really must be a force next year.

Adrian Peterson is regarded by many as the best RB in the football league, but he misses out narrowly from my top 5. Yes at 17 touchdowns he has scored more than any other RB but he is the go to man for a strong Vikings team. He is 400+ yards down on last season and has made 6 fumbles, more than any other RB ranked in the top 60.

Cedric Benson has also had a great season for Cincinnati but he too misses out on the top 5. Benson has 1,251 yards this season which is more than he has scored in his 4 previous seasons combined, he has had a big hand in the Bengals improvement and I expect he will be even better next season when he may find himself closer to that elusive Nuttie.

So the top 5 in no particular order, Chris Johnson (Tennessee), Steven Jackson (St Louis), Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville), Ryan Grant (Green Bay) & Ray Rice (Baltimore).

Obviously all 5 have had tremendous seasons and surprisingly only one has secured post season football (Grant) although Rice will be hopeful of a wildcard spot still.

Considering how poor St Louis have been it is a sign of Jackson's talent that he has notched up 1,353 yards at an average of 4.5 a carry. Likewise, Jones-Drew at Jacksonville has been responsible for a lot of their good work this season notching 1,309 yards at an average of 4.4 a carry. Both players have produced career high years and will be solid choices for fantasy teams again next year.

However in 3rd place this season we have Ray Rice of Baltimore, in his 2nd season Rice has rushed for 1,269 yards at an average of 5.3 a carry scoring 7 touchdowns. A great improvement on his rookie year where he managed only 454 yards. Baltimore have unearthed yet another quality RB.

In 2nd place we have Ryan Grant. Grant may be ranked as low as 8th in the NFL with 1,202 but his form has played a big part in The Packers progress this year and his consistency has resulted in zero fumbles. Grant has also contributed 10 touchdowns thus far.

And therefore the winner is Chris Johnson. Quite a straightforward choice I'm sure you will agree. Johnson has been incredible this season and needs only 128 more yards against Seattle on Sunday to break the 2000 barrier. I wouldn't bet against him either. The fastest man in the NFL has averaged 5.8 yards per carry has scored 12 touchdowns and fumbled only twice from 322 attempts. I am sure you will agree Chris Johnson is a very worthy winner of the first Nuttie.

Tomorrow the wide receivers will be on edge as they await the Nuttie announcement.

The Nutties

2009-12-30T14:26:00.002Z

The less said about the last bet the better and I'm not getting involved this week as it will be difficult to be sure of who will be playing and who will be rested. On top of that it will be a crucial last week for all the teams chasing the AFC Wildcard spots.

Basically there are five teams in the AFC with 8 & 7 records and only 2 Wildcard spots. As someone who has a big priced ante-post docket with Houston written on it I will be praying that they can somehow sneak in. The other teams involved are New York Jets, Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. There are a lot of possible outcomes and it will make for a great final days viewing.

Moving on from the action and I have decided to review the players performances this season in way of an inaugural Nutty Sports awards from now on known as "The Nutties". We will have awards for the following,

Quarterback of the year
Running Back of the year
Wide Receiver of the year
Tightend of the year
Rookie of the year

Of course the D-Line will miss out but they are used to it I'm sure. I will be kicking of with a review of the position I fancy I'd have played in my youth, running back. The review will start tomorrow and there will be one a day for the next 5 days which will coincide nicely with the end of the regular season.

Please feel free to post your comments or views whether you agree or disagree with any of the nominations and award winners.

A Week 16 Bet.

2009-12-25T11:06:00.004Z

It may be Christmas day but punters have to work all the year round especially when there is a cracking line up of fixtures this weekend.

While everyone else is preparing dinner and trying to find space in their cupboards for all the new gifts Nutty Sports is doing something far more constructive. Searching for another winner.

There were a few match ups that were close to a bet this week but in the end I have decided that Atlanta will not cover the 9 point start credited to Buffalo.

Falcons' Quarterback Matt Ryan has been suffering with injuries and has again been limited in practise this week. Even if he does play he will not be 100% and they will not have worked through as many drills and plays as Head Coach Mike Smith would have liked. They are not going to make the play offs this year and at 7 & 7 the only thing they can play for is another winning record.

Although Jason Snelling has filled in well, star running back Michael Turner has had ongoing problems with his ankle and may be rested again in order to get him fit when there is little to play for.

Atlanta are notoriously weak on pass defense and they are ranked 30th in the NFL conceding an average of 254.8. Any O-Line would be confident of putting up some yaradge against them.

Buffalo may not be highly ranked offensively but this is a prime opportunity for them to change that. Although inconsistent The Bills have put up some tremendous performances this season including good wins against Miami, Carolina and New York and have twice kept it very close against New England.

I made the Falcons 7.5 point favourites and felt that was on the high end, my initial thoughts were less than a touchdown. So why is the spread so big? Purely because of the doubt as to who will play at quarterback for Buffalo. If Trent Edwards were fit the spread would be around 5.5 points in my opinion. Ryan Fitzpatrick also injured his ankle covering for Edwards last week and it looks as if 3rd string Brian Brohm might get the nod.

Brohm is eager to get his chance, having been drafted by Green Bay in 2008 following a highly successful High School and College career he was picked up by the Bills in November. He has been very patient in waiting for a first start in the NFL and it couldn't come against a more accommodating team. It might be taking a chance on a rookie Quarterback but I don't see there being anything like 9 points in it.

1pt Buffalo +9 10/11 Generally.

Week 16.

2009-12-24T12:55:00.003Z

Week 16 starts on Christmas night with San Diego travelling to Tennessee and ends on Monday when Minnesota take on Chicago.

I have compiled my lines for the fixtures in hope of finding a bet that will finally take us into double figures.

at Tennessee -3 San Diego
at Atlanta -7.5 Buffalo
at Cincinnati -11 Kansas
at Cleveland -3.5 Oakland
at Green Bay -12 Seattle
at Miami -2.5 Houston
at Pittsburgh -1.5 Baltimore
at New York Giants -5.5 Carolina
at New England -9 Jacksonville
at New Orleans -12 Tampa Bay
at Arizona -10.5 St Louis
at San Francisco -7.5 Detroit
at Philadelphia -6 Denver
at Indianapolis -5.5 New York Jets
Dallas -6 at Washington
Minnesota -6 a Chicago

As Christmas bores the life out of me (enough is enough can't we cancel it from now on please?) I will spend the next day or so studying the match ups as well as playing quite a bit of online poker. Hopefully I'll have a bet and a win to report in the next day or so.

Tilt.

2009-12-21T17:09:00.004Z

Sometimes life is sent to try us. Maybe we rode our luck in the early part of the season but last night's bet on Green Bay was tortuous.

Forget the fact that Pittsburgh's last minute drive from deep in their own territory was converted into a touchdown as the time ran out. Forget the fact they completed on 4th and 12 during this drive, forget the fact the review booth had to check that the touchdown was completed within time due to there being only a few seconds on the clock when they snapped the decisive ball.

The hardest bit of luck was that The Steelers who had lost 5 of their last 6 found some incredible form. Ben Roethislberger threw a career high 503 yards and 3 touchdowns and they still only won by a point.

We have every right to feel aggrieved but I still think at the price it was the correct bet. It does now take Nutty Sports to 8 & 4 having been 7 & 0 so we here at Nutty Towers might have to get a smaller turkey this year and cut back on the brandy butter.

There were some incredible matches last night and a good few surprises. The match in San Diego where the Chargers faced off against Cincinnati was a cracker. So soon after the terrible news of Chris Henry's death the game was a fitting tribute to the late wide receiver with Chad Ochocinco dedicating his incredible touchdown to Henry's memory.

The Giants face Washington tonight in a crucial divisional battle. New York will have to win out to have any sort of chance of securing a play off spot but Washington have been playing hard football the last few weeks and will offer real resistance. Unfortunately none of the UK channels have secured the rights for Monday Night Football this season so watching it online is the only solution. I will however be trying to get out of it with a bet on New York -3. They really need to win and they performed well in what was a tremendous shoot out match against The Eagles last weekend. If they play that well again they will beat the Redskins comfortably.

Our next game is on Christmas night so if I don't manage a post before then, Nutty Sports would like to wish you all a very Merry Christmas.

1pt New York Giants -3 11/10 Stan James.

Back with a Bet.

2009-12-17T13:16:00.003Z

As planned I've had a week off and as it turned out it was a fairly busy one. I've been viewing countless flats in order to re-locate for my new job and I've been popping into work to organise a few things before I officially start.

However, the punting must continue and I am backing Green Bay at 11/10 to beat Pittsburgh this weekend.

The Steelers have blown all chances of post season football and with that the opportunity to defend their crown. They have lost 5 out of the last 6 matches including a loss to a weak Cleveland side last weekend.

Green Bay on the other hand are very much in the frame for the play offs and in Aaron Rodgers they may have unearthed another star Quarterback. He has plenty of options too with the likes of Donald Driver and Greg Jennings.

Green Bay are ranked 9th for passing yards in the NFL with an average of 254.2 per game (7th with 374.4 total yardage) and The Steelers are ranked 13th with 209.2 for pass defense. Considering the Steelers who are ranked 4th overall are known for their powerful D-Line this does show signs of how The Packers should attack and therefore win the ball game.

If it comes down to who wants it more The packers with their eye on a deep post season run should have far too much for what looks like a demoralised Steeler team.

Lets hope we can bounce back from the break with a decent win at odds against.

1pt Green Bay 11/10 Generally

A Week Off.

2009-12-09T15:17:00.003Z

I've been feeling a little jaded lately so I am going to have a bet free week. I will of course watch the NFL on Sky but I won't be compiling any lines or having any bets.

Sometimes when things aren't going well it is best to stand back and just enjoy the games. My fantasy team got beat meaning I miss the play offs so I can watch the matches as a neutral this week and just enjoy the spectacle.

This time last year Nutty Sports made a killing on Miss World and X Factor. As I mentioned before it was very difficult to get on Miss World this year because the firms were running scared. However Miss Puerta Rico will be crowned on Saturday and we still have bits and pieces on. If you haven't had a bet - Betfred are still offering 9/4 and while I hate to recommend bets at that price when 20/1 was available - you are pretty much buying money.

The X Factor final is also on Saturday and if the rumours are to be believed we still have a great chance with Olly. I mentioned previously that partnering him with Robbie Williams would be an excellent move and it appears Simon reads this blog because it is thought that Robbie will duet with Olly this week. Of course I will confirm nearer the time, but his price is shortening as we speak.

I have decided to return to work and have accepted another job in the betting industry. I won't talk much about it on here as this blog only represents my personal views but I am quite excited by the new and challenging role. It will mean relocating but only to the other side of London and not to Gibraltar again.

I plan to relax this weekend and may well play a little bit of Poker instead of the usual NFL studying. Hopefully I will feel refreshed and ready to tackle it again next week.

In the meantime, good luck to you if you're having a bet.

Ups and Downs.

2009-12-07T15:24:00.003Z

The weekend contained the usual highs and lows and I'd like to be able to say that I got something right but that would be clutching at straws.

Things that went well this weekend:

Olly made the final of X factor. Although I had backed Danyl on Saturday night it is a relief that Olly made it through, he might still have a chance. Obviously it will depend on what happens on the show on Saturday but he may also pick up a good number of Danyl's voters which would hopefully see him get heads up with strong favourite Joe. One step at a time however lets see what news surrounding the show materialises this week.

New York Giants beat Dallas:

It was a no bet match for me but The G-Men performed well and it was nice to see Brandon Jacobs put up some good numbers against the team he openly admits he does not like. A slim chance of a play off spot remains.

Things that went wrong this weekend:

Matt Schaub missed part of the match in Jacksonville after injuring his shoulder in the 1st quarter. I'm not sure how much it affected The Texans chances because they looked pretty awful to me and were beaten 23-18. Another losing NFL week is enough to bring tears to my eyes. We are now 8 & 3 and I am considering a weekend off.

Fantasy Football team:

I needed to win my last game to make the playoffs. I keep leaving the wrong players on the bench. Last night I played Peyton instead of Eli and Eli scored more. I rested Percy Harvin and he came up trumps again. The upshot is I trail by 28 points with Ryan Grant and Derrick Mason playing tonight. A draw will be enough for me but I am going to need touchdown performances from both players to snatch an unlikely win.

I have decided not to compile my handicap lines today, I will do it tomorrow after the Monday Night Football match.

Sunday Bloody Sunday.

2009-12-06T11:20:00.005Z

Sunday really is the best day of the week. After a reasonable lie in and a spot of breakfast I can prepare myself for a feast of sport. Throw in a roast dinner, The X Factor and the Sunday majors on the Poker sites and I'm sure you would find it hard to disagree.

I was up until 5am this morning, although with all the sports coverage ESPN now offer in the UK it is becoming a much more frequent occurrence. The reason for my lack of sleep last night was The Ultimate Fighter 10. If you haven't seen it yet and are waiting for the repeat show you better look away now as spoilers will follow.

Kimbo Slice made his UFC debut against the explosive Alexander Houston. The MMA world expected a slug fest yet Alexander did not engage. For such a dangerous striker to avoid exchanging with Slice suggests the fighting world really does respect his power. It was also clear that Kimbo had worked very hard on his ground game and was able to dominate Alexander in the 2nd round. The judges awarded the fight to the Internet phenom and fans will be looking forward to his return.

Marcus Jones who was a 1st round pick for Tampa Bay in 1996 had his lights turned out by Matt Matrione the former Giants DT and in the final, Roy "big country" Jones knocked out another former NFL player in Brendan Schaub. All in all it was a great nights action and I am looking forward to another late one next Saturday as BJ Penn defends his lightweight title against Diego Sanchez, in what really should be an explosive match up.

Yesterday I almost suggested a bet on Olly at around 2/1 to be eliminated, anybody that had a bet is in great shape now because he is now a best price 10/11 to leave. If you follow me on Twitter you will see that I consider Simon to have forfeited Olly's chances to ensure Danyl makes the final.

On to last night's show and I'd like to start by saying that there are only two things certain in life. We will all die one day and Stacey will not win X Factor.

How much control does Simon have? For my money I think he pulls the strings every year, it is his money after all. He will not want Stacey to be the winner. How can she be? Look back at the last two winners in Alexandra Burke and Leona Lewis and Stacey has not got anything near their quality (if you doubt me listen to their performances on Youtube), she really would not sell records once her initial win had passed over. I know this, you know this and most importantly Simon knows this.

Joe has done a fantastic job with almost everything he has been given, but like Simon I do not see an international superstar when I look at Joe. Could you see him cracking America, he reminds me of Gareth Gates, remember him?

So that means it's hats off time. Simon has been right all along and that's why I backed Danyl last night to win the show at 10/1 on Betfair. Firstly I thought he was by far the best performer last night and I expect him to be again next week when he will be up against 3rd placed Stacey and then heads up with Joe.

It is a shame we will likely say goodbye to Olly tonight but I think his votes will now mostly go to the best performer on the night and that really should be Danyl. He knows he has to be on top form to survive after an early scare, he is getting his confidence back now and Simon has said all along that he is the best singer, I have to agree and bet accordingly.

A few years back nobody expected Will Young to beat Gareth Gates, but the fans did vote for the best act in the end. Danyl could appeal internationally and out of the remaining acts has probably the only chance to make it in the US which is important to Simon's bank balance.

I'm not going to recommend you back Danyl, I'm sure most people have their own favourites by now I just thought I'd tell you how I saw the show unravelling. I will be sorry to see Olly leave as an ante-post bet at 12/1 would have been nice and to be honest I rarely get these wrong so it's a shock to the system, and is a hard thing for me to accept.

I hope you enjoy your Sunday as much as I am going to enjoy mine. Go Texans!

X Factor - Semi Finals.

2009-12-05T12:14:00.003Z

Simon Cowell has half of the acts left in this years X Factor but I cannot see how he won't lose one of them this weekend.

My feeling about Joe has been documented many times before but it does appear he is an absolute banker for the final and may well give Cheryl another winning year. Stacey, another that has not appealed to me as much as to others will also make the final, they need a girl in there and she will be an also ran on finals night.

So who to go from Olly and Danyl? Obviously we here at Nutty Towers hope that it's Danyl because our pre- live show bet on Olly at least deserves another sweat. However Simon has given Danyl a cracking couple of tracks tonight and he might just steal the show. I have said before that Simon appears to prefer Danyl and that again has become apparent.

Earlier in the week Danyl was odds on to go but 11/10 is now the best price with the firms and it's similar on the exchanges. Olly has eased slightly and is now available at 7/4 but it might be possible to get 2/1 on Betfair.

So onto tonight's songs, the theme is one Michael Jackson track and then a song of their choice. Here is what has been selected:

Stacey Solomon: The Way You Make Me Feel and You Got The Love (Florence & The Machine)

This seems to be a bit up tempo for Stacey, it's not quite a risk but she will be challenging her range in my opinion.

Danyl Johnson: Man in the Mirror and Hello (Lionel Richie)

I think these are very solid choices. I wouldn't be surprised if Simon orchestrates it for him to end the show with the Lionel Richie track which I think he will absolutely nail.

Joe McElderry: She’s Out Of My Life and The Closer I Get To You (Luther Vandross)

If the market is correct he could sing the Blobby Song and still get through. Decent choices and it does look like Cheryl really knows what she is doing.

Olly Murs: Can You Feel It and Chasing Cars (Snow Patrol)

At least we should get him back to his entertaining self with these tracks, but they aren't match winners for me.

Ideally for us Olly backers, Danyl gets eliminated tonight and then his voters may pick up the phone for Olly next week but I fear the worst.

Next week it is likely that the acts will sing with "stars" and Beyonce's performance helped Alexandra beat JLS last year so it would be a shrewd move by Simon (should Olly get through) to pair him up with Robbie Williams. At least that would give us hope.

I am tempted to recommend a bet on Olly to go this week at around 2/1 but I will leave it until after the show. In the meantime feel free to VOTE OLLY!

Week 13, Lets Go Texans!

2009-12-04T10:00:00.002Z

I've taken my time to find the right bet this week having agonised over several match ups. I've decided that this week Matt Schaub should really be able to take us back to winning ways.

Houston were unable to convert a good early lead against Indianapolis into a victory last week but Jacksonville will not offer anywhere near the dangers that Peyton Manning and Co did.

I like the Houston roster, they have one of the best receivers in the NFL in Andre Johnson. Steve Slaton and Chris Brown offer a solid rushing game too. TE Owen Daniels injury has been a loss but I think they will still have too much for Jacksonville.

Houston are ranked 3rd in the NFL for passing yards averaging 283.1 per game. Jacksonville pass defense is ranked 26th conceding an average of 242.9 per game. Texan Quarterback Matt Schaub will be confident of piling up some good numbers on Sunday.

Jacksonville will run the ball and in Maurice Jones-Drew they definitely have a weapon. The Texans will need to work hard to stop Jones-Drew but I'm sure they will be working hard on that in practise.

This is a must win match for Houston if they harbour any hopes of making the playoffs. I made them 2.5 point favourites but most of the firms make this an even match up although with Blue Square you can get Houston +1.

1pt Houston +1 Blue Sq.

Week 13 Vegas Lines.

2009-12-02T13:15:00.005Z

It hasn't been a great few weeks, in fact I am 1 & 2 in the last three weeks. I am very conscious that I may be out of form but I suppose having gone 7 & 0 a bad spell was likely. In the grand scheme of things it isn't really a dreadful spell but I really must return to winning ways before I undo all my early good work.

So here are this weeks Vegas lines with my lines in brackets.

New York Jets -3 (+2.5) @ Buffalo
at Chicago -8.5 (-5.5) St Louis
New England -6.5 (-7.5) @ Miami
Philadelphia -3 (-3) @ Atlanta
New Orleans -8.5 (-7.5) @ Washington
at Indianapolis -7 (-3.5) Tennessee
at Pittsburgh -13 (-5.5) Oakland
Denver -4.5 (-5.5) @ Kansas City
at Carolina -6.5 (-5) Tampa Bay
Houston -1 (-2.5) @ Jacksonville
at Cincinnati -13 (-9) Detroit
San Diego -11.5 (-10.5) at Cleveland
at New York Giants-1 (-1.5) Dallas
San Francisco -1 (-2.5) @ Seattle
Minnesota -3 (-5.5) @ Arizona
at Green Bay -2.5 (-2.5) Baltimore

A few good starting points. Minnesota -3 looks quite good, I'm sure Kurt Warner won't feel comfortable with that D-Line right in his face. We disagree on the Jets/Bills match up and perhaps I am letting last weekends win against Miami cloud my judgement on Buffalo but I will look into how the teams match up today.

Other differences include Pittsburgh by some 7.5 points but like I said before, that really will depend on the availability of Big Ben. They make Indianapolis much stronger favourites too, although that is quite understandable I have been impressed by Tennessee's recent form. Cincinnati have also been given a much larger handicap to overcome by Vegas but I'm not so certain Detroit are that bad. The Bengals have struggled to put up numbers against Cleveland a couple of times now but again this could come down to the fitness of Matthew Stafford.

I will spend today and tomorrow studying the match ups so watch this space for any action over the next 24 hours or so.

8 & 2.

2009-11-30T12:47:00.005Z

Miami could not take advantage of their 1st half dominance and buckled somewhat in the 2nd half gifting Buffalo a 31-14 win.

It's never nice to get beat by the bookies, but I think the best lesson to learn here is to avoid teams that are inconsistent. Miami have at times this season played quite brilliant football but on the flip side they have been beaten on a few occasions when they really should have won. It's not a good trait and all in all I think Miami have a lot more to do to really be competitive.

There is a big match up tonight where New England travel to New Orleans. I think New England will win this game and the odds against offered on the money line could well recover yesterday's losses. The Saints have not played a team anywhere near the quality of The Patriots yet and I think their defense could buckle under the pressure that Tom Brady and his O-Line will bring.

Looking at my fantasy team match up this week it is very close. I took Percy Harvin in to the team from the bench and he scored well. As it stands at the moment I am leading 81-67. I have Saints Kicker John Carney to play and my opponent has Saints TE Jeremy Shockey along with The Saints Special Teams/Defense. It is going to be very tight.

I've compiled my week 13 lines (below) but I am mindful that a few important Quarterbacks could be missing next week which would have an affect on the games. Big Ben Roethlisberger missed the Steelers game last night with concussion and his availability will need to be monitored. Like wise with Atlanta's Matt Ryan who was taken off last night. Matthew Stafford of Detroit battled through Thursday's match up with Green Bay and the extra time he gets this week might help but his progress will still need monitoring.

New York Jets +2.5 @ Buffalo
at Chicago -5.5 St Louis
New England -7.5 @ Miami
Philadelphia -3 @ Atlanta
New Orleans -7.5 @ Washington
at Indianapolis -3.5 Tennessee
at Pittsburgh -5.5 Oakland
Denver -5.5 @ Kansas City
at Carolina -5 Tampa Bay
Houston -2.5 @ Jacksonville
at Cincinnati -9 Detroit
San Diego -10.5 at Cleveland
at New York Giants -1.5 Dallas
San Francisco -2.5 @ Seattle
Minnesota -5.5 @ Arizona
at Green Bay -2.5 Baltimore

I will compare the Vegas lines tomorrow as always.

Just a note on the X Factor as we finally saw the end of Lloyd. We are at the semi-final stage now and Joe is odds on favourite. Have I been wrong all along? I really think he would be a weak winner. He has no personality, he cannot dance and his Geordie accent is apparent when he sings. Surely sense will prevail. I would lay him at the price if I hadn't already got certain positions. It looks to me that Simon will lose one of his acts this coming week. I hope he realises that Olly is his best chance of winning because I believe he wants Danyl to win. It seems to be that Danyl is getting the extra effort and best song choices but if he is serious about winning the show then he must concentrate on Olly.

Thanksgiving, An Update and X Factor Songs.

2009-11-27T11:45:00.011Z

A night of Thanksgiving football is always an added bonus but quite a few mistakes were made, for starters I've made a hash of my fantasy team.

I have a number of fantasy teams this season but perhaps the best and most competitive one is with ESPN, where each "coach" starts the season by rating players before the "draft". Then each team receives a player in turn based on their ratings until they have a squad. We have 2 divisions and each week your team is matched up with another and a victory handed to the team that scores the most points. Trades between teams are allowed when they can be agreed and it is also possible to pick spare players up that aren't attached to other teams.

I started badly, losing 5 of my first 6 games. I then knuckled down and spent some time studying the format (should have done that at the out set) and I now have a 6 & 5 record having won my last 5 games. In my league there are 4 teams now tied at the top at 6 & 5. My squad is pasted below.

QB	Eli Manning, NYG QB P
RB	Ryan Grant, GB RB P
RB	Jason Snelling, Atl RB
RB/WR	Percy Harvin, Min WR
WR	Hines Ward, Pit WR
WR	Derrick Mason, Bal WR
TE	Kellen Winslow, TB TE P
D/ST	Cowboys D/ST, Dal D/ST
K	John Carney, NO K
BENCH
SLOT	PLAYER, TEAM POS
Bench	Peyton Manning, Ind QB P
Bench	Reggie Bush, NO RB Q
Bench	Santonio Holmes, Pit WR
Bench	Steve Slaton, Hou RB Q
Bench	Correll Buckhalter, Den RB
Bench	Visanthe Shiancoe, Min TE
Bench	Robert Meachem, NO WR

There are 2 weeks left before the "playoffs" and only 4 teams will progress. This week and next I am up against 2 teams that are also tied for 1st on 6 & 5 so if I win them both I am in the play offs.

The key to my team this week is Michael Turner. I really need him to remain injured and not play. This will allow Jason Snelling (who I picked up for free last week) to be Atlanta's main running back against Tampa - where he is likely to score heavily against a bad rush defense.

Last night Ryan Grant (Green Bay RB) did ok scoring 10 points and I had Dallas as my Special Teams/Defense. They ended on 9 points but were up to 14 before the Oakland drive that they converted into a touchdown. I elected to play Eli Manning last night after quite some agonising and that was a big mistake. Leaving Peyton on the bench last week paid dividends but that was because Eli was up against Atlanta who have a poor pass defense - Denver do not. I was also not happy to see the rookie Knowshon Moreno play so well last night for The Broncos as my opponent has him in his squad. At this stage of the game I will need some luck to win, which after a really good recent effort is disappointing.

Back to the punting and I have decided to add Dallas Cowboys to my Superbowl portfolio. I have backed them at 26/1 on Betfair. Granted they do have a tough schedule, but so do New York and I think they are a stronger side. If Miles Austin continues in the form he showed last night they really should win the NFC East and with a little luck in the Post Season could go close which will hopefully leave me in a good trading position.

I have also traded out of my bet on George Hamilton. I laid him on the exchange at 3.95 locking in a profit no matter what. I haven't really been watching the show so it's best to get out of any positions. Looking at the market it does appear for reasons I do not know that Gino DAcampo is a shoe in.

Looking ahead to X Factor this week where the remaining acts will sing two songs, one by Elton John and one by Take That. I am hoping that Olly can get back on track this week as he really should be able to nail a couple of good performances. He has eased in the market somewhat but that is to be expected after appearing in the bottom two. This Saturday will be crucial to our bet.

I have managed to get my hands on the song choices early. I might well write a preview with my thoughts tomorrow but for the time being here they are:

Stacey
Something Abut The Way You Look Tonight - Elton John

Rule The World - Take That

Joe
Sorry Seems To Be The Hardest Word - Elton John

Could It Be Magic- Take That

Lloyd
I'm Still Standing - Elton John

Million Love Songs - Take That

Danyl
Your Song - Elton John

Relight My Fire - Take That

Olly
Saturday Nights Alright For Fighting - Elton John

Love Ain't Here Anymore- Take That

Week 12 Bet.

2009-11-25T11:14:00.006Z

For our week 12 bet we head to New York state. It's another divisional match up with one team on the ascendancy and the other in turmoil.

Buffalo have appointed defensive coach Perry Fewell on an interim basis as The Bills search for a new coach for next season after the sacking of Dick Jauron. Franchise owner Ralph Wilson has said he is prepared to completely re-vamp the team for the 2010 season and that nobody's place is secured. It very much looks like Buffalo have resigned themselves to also rans for this campaign and will concentrate on repairing the damage in an attempt to be competitive for next season.

Miami on the other hand had a great win last Thursday (giving them plenty of rest before Sunday's game) against a strong Carolina team. They have put themselves right bang in the race for an AFC Wildcard spot.

Ricky Williams rushed for 119 yards and scored 3 touchdowns against the Panthers last week and this matchup really should be about the rush game. Miami are ranked 4th in the NFL with an average of 156 rush yards per game whereas Buffalo are ranked 31st on rush defense conceding an average of 165.9 yards per game.

Back in week 4 Miami beat Buffalo 38-10 where The Dolphins racked up 250 yards rushing alone (Buffalo managed only 206 total offensive yards).

Miami will be playing hard knowing a win will give them every chance of a play off spot. The Fins have had a very tough schedule this term so it is credit to Tony Sparano and his men that they are still in the hunt.

I really expect Miami to be far too strong for Buffalo and with only 3 points to cover think they look like a strong bet.

1pt Miami -3 @ 4/5 generally.

Back To Winning Ways.

2009-11-24T10:55:00.005Z

Tennessee won the ball game last night taking Nutty Sports to 8 & 1 for the season. An extra bonus for any of you that backed them to win the match at odds against. In the end it was a 53 yard field goal that took it down 20-17 in yet another tight divisional match up.

Leading up to Thanksgiving you would expect the firms to be spot on with their handicap lines, they have after all had 11 regular season game weeks to get it right. This means we will likely have to search longer and harder for any edge or value and it's times like this where I will sometimes look to the money line for a bet.

I have posted the Vegas lines for week 12 below with as always my lines in brackets.

Green Bay -10 (-6.5) @ Detroit
at Dallas -13.5 (-9) Oakland
New York Giants -6.5 (-4.5) @ Denver
Miami -3 (-2.5) @ Buffalo
at New York Jets -3 (-3) Carolina
at Cincinnati -14 (-10.5) Cleveland
Indianapolis -3 (-3) @ Houston
at Atlanta -12 (-9.5) Tampa Bay
at Philadelphia -9 (-7.5) Washington
Seattle -3 (-2.5) @ St Louis
at San Diego -13.5 (9.5) Kansas
at San Francisco -3 (-2.5) Jacksonville
at Minnesota -10.5 (9.5) Chicago
at Tennessee -1 (-3) Arizona
at Baltimore -2.5 (-3) Pittsburgh
at New Orleans -3 (-3.5) New England

With 3 games on Thursday I will try and get any potential bet up by Wednesday evening. Taking a quick glance at the lines the first two games look interesting to me. Oakland managed a good win against Cincinnati last weekend whereas Dallas were awful against Washington winning 7-6. Just off the bat it appears that 13.5 points might be a lot for The Cowboys to overcome. By the same token Detroit fought back well to win 38-37 on Sunday (albeit) against Cleveland, Matthew Stafford put up some great numbers and Green Bay might find it difficult to cover a 10 point line especially considering their injury list is mounting up.

I'll be studying all the match ups in great detail so keep an eye out for a bet in the next 24 hours or so.

A Quick Round Up With Week 12 Lines.

2009-11-23T11:29:00.001Z

Lets start with the X Factor and although it was nice to finally get rid of Jedward it was of some concern to find Olly in the bottom two.

It may be a result of a number of factors. Firstly, Joe's performance may well have taken some of Olly's votes. Secondly, his performance was more up beat as per the judges request but perhaps his fans didn't like it and would vote again when he returns to what he is good at. Thirdly, it may just be that fans didn't vote for him expecting him to be safe. This happens quite a bit, they may have placed their votes on acts they felt were more vulnerable in an attempt to axe the Twins. I am sure they will vote in their droves next week to ensure it doesn't happen again.

A quick post with a bet on Saturday has already reaped dividends. George Hamilton is back in base camp and all the 8/1 has gone. In fact he is the favourite now and can be laid at less than 7/2 on Betfair (at time of going to press). He is best price 10/3 with the firms now, so we are in good shape.

We are waiting on Tennessee tonight to complete the weekend's punting and I have everything crossed. I have compiled my lines for Week 12, we have 3 games on Thursday this week due to Thanksgiving and the season is really hotting up.

Thursday,

Green Bay -6.5 @ Detroit
at Dallas -9 Oakland
New York Giants -4.5 @ Denver

Sunday,

Miami -2.5 @ Buffalo
at New York Jets -3 Carolina
at Cincinnati -9.5 Cleveland
Indianapolis -3 @ Houston
at Atlanta -9.5 Tampa Bay
at Philadelphia -7.5 Washington
Seattle -3 @ St Louis
at San Diego -9.5 Kansas
at San Francisco -2.5 Jacksonville
at Minnesota -9.5 Chicago
at Tennessee -3 Arizona
at Baltimore -2.5 Pittsburgh

Monday

at New Orleans -3.5 New England

The Monday night game should be a cracker. There are again quite a few divisional match ups that could be tight. I'll be having a look at all the games throughout the week, but for the time being, Go Titans!

X Factor - Week 7 Elimination.

2009-11-22T13:24:00.000Z

I'm glad they referred to it as George Michael week on the show because Wham week would have been a disaster.

As it was I am starting to think that this format has run it's course, I'm not finding it nearly as entertaining as last year and I think it will need to be changed or re-vamped to continue with as much popularity in future seasons.

On to the performances and I elected not to trade the markets this week. In fact I think it easier in the early weeks because as we near the business end it really should go down to form. Votes are not spread so thinly as the stronger acts start to pick up the spare votes and it's for that reason the bottom two this week really should be Lloyd and Jedward with Danyl being the only other possibility.

Lloyd sang Faith and it may well have been his best performance. However after so many weeks coaching acts really should be getting better. Cheryl decided to give him a new look having seen the difference it made for Danyl but I think that was obvious to the viewers. Louis Walsh managed to show his hypocritical side again when commenting on Lloyd's performance. "This is a singing contest, and there are better singers than you." How can we take that comment seriously when he has been hyping his act as entertaining? If Simon does change the format he really should replace Louis, he is of no value whatsoever.

Stacey had another good song choice and although shaky at the start she picked it up. I actually thought she sounded a bit nasal at times last night but she is a sure fire finalist.

Jedward have also improved their vocals, practising everyday with professional coaching would improve anybody. The rap was awful, they were completely out of time.

Danyl had a big song, but I didn't care for the performance very much. I actually found it quite flat and would have preferred a more energetic routine. He is in my opinion the only likely candidate other than the favourites to be in the bottom two this week.

Olly was not at his best this week, but he did try something different after constant pressure from the judges. He is nailed on for the final but for the first time I think he needs to pick it up a little bit more.

Joe got the plum spot and the plum song this week. It was a good performance and I dare anyone to disagree. I have problems with Joe though. This time last year they were criticising Diana for not being able to dance. Why has this not been mentioned to Joe (or Stacey for that matter)? I also don't like his accent being so obvious when he is singing. He looks like he will be in the final, but he's still not the winner for me.

In summary there will be no bet this week. I do expect the market to be correct and have Lloyd and Jedward in the bottom two. If that is the case then Louis and Cheryl's votes will be obvious. Danni will save Lloyd, because she has been consistently honest throughout. So we come down to Simon again who I think will take it to the public once more. Lloyd might just survive it if that is the case.

I'm a Celebrity...

2009-11-21T22:21:00.000Z

I've watched the majority of episodes of this years IACGMOOH, mainly because it has been entertaining to see Katie Price lumbered with all the bush trials.

When I first saw this years line-up I felt Jimmy White may well have a chance of winning and the firms agreed. He has however so far played a very insignificant part and eased accordingly in the market. There seems to be quite a friendly atmosphere (Bugner aside) and that I think has played a part in making it quite a boring season so far.

For my money however, there has been one personality that has stood out. George Hamilton. He seems to have quite a quirky personality and is always looking to enjoy himself while helping others to have a good time too. He is currently available at 8/1 with Boylesports and Stan James. This seems big to me, and maybe it is partly to do with the fact he is in "exile" at the moment and therefore vulnerable to eviction. I think the show needs him and voters of all ages will like him. Back him now at 8/1 because I am certain he will be shorter in the very near future and could very well go on to win the show.

1pt George Hamilton to win 8/1 Boyles & Stans.

My X factor eviction views will be posted tomorrow when I have watched the show back again.

A Monday Night Football Bet

2009-11-21T14:11:00.000Z

I've been fairly busy this week so my bet has been delayed, but I have managed to put in enough research to come out with a bet that should get Nutty Sports back to winning ways.

We will have to wait until Monday night for the action as this week I am taking on the Texans with a much improved Tennesse side.

Houston come off a buy week having pushed the Indianapolis Colts very close in Week 9. We took on Tennesse in week 5 but they look a completely different side these last 3 weeks. There has been a change at Quarterback as Vince Young has replaced Kerry Collins (regular readers will recall that I suggsted that as a possibility in week 5). Vince Young threw for 210 yards last week but the real revelation at Tennesse has been Chris Johnson. Johnson has had 4 consecutive 100+ yard rushing games and topped it off with adding 100 receiving yards last week.

In their last 3 games both the Titans and Texans have beaten Buffalo and San Francisco. In these match ups The Titans have scored 74 and conceded 43. The Texans have scored 55 and conceded 31.

I think there is now some determination and belief in Tennesse after 3 wins in a row and Chris Johnson has been very vocal when declaring they will win their last 10 games. That may be a bit hopeful but it is a sign on the improvement they have made. This should be another tight divisional battle as The Titans try and close the gap on their AFC South rivals.

The Texans beat the Titans 34-31 back in September, but that was during their slump. The Titans have won 7 of the last 9 matches between the sides and boast an 11-4 record overall.

I actually think The Titans can win this match and wouldn't put anyone off a small bet at 19/10 with Paddy Power, but I'm going to take the security of a 5 point start.

1pt win Tennesse +5 @ 10/11 Paddy Power.

Identifying The Error

2009-11-18T11:17:00.001Z

Looking back at the difference between last week and the seven previous to that the first thing that springs to mind is that for the first time I went against my lines.

Every week I have found a game where my views have differed from Vegas and used that as a starting point when studying how the teams matched up. Week 10 was different. I backed New Orleans at -13.5 when I made them -12.5. It's easy to say with hindsight that it should have been a "no bet" week and I considered that at one point but it became too importnat to me to keep the run going and that in itself was a mistake.

On to the Vegas lines for Week 11 with my lines in brackets.

At Carolina	-3	Miami
At Detroit	-3.5	Cleveland
At Jacksonville	-9 (-3)	Buffalo
Pittsburgh	-10 (-4.5)	At Kansas City
At Baltimore	PK (+2.5)	Indianapolis
At NY Giants	-6.5 (-3.5)	Atlanta
At Green Bay	-6.5 (-3)	San Francisco
At Minnesota	-11 (-9.5)	Seattle
At Dallas	-11 (-5.5)	Washington
New Orleans	-11.5 (-14)	At Tampa Bay
Arizona	-9 (-5)	At St. Louis
At New England	-10.5 (-9)	NY Jets
Cincinnati	-9.5 (4.5)	At Oakland
San Diego	-3 (-3)	At Denver
Philadelphia	-3 (-3.5)	At Chicago

Monday Night Football Line


	At Houston	-5 (-3.5)	Tennessee

Hmmm, looks like I will be having a bet on every game this week! I differ from Vegas on almost all the lines and by quite some distance in some match ups. At least it looks promising in the search for a bet this week. Time will tell.

Monday Morning Blues.

2009-11-16T13:39:00.000Z

I suppose it was inevitable that sooner or later we would be discussing a NFL losing bet but it certainly doesn't feel right. Couple that with a bad X Factor result and it's twice the agony.

Even though I had felt Jamie was in trouble this week I still managed to have a large red number under his name on Betfair and with Lloyd also being in the sing off it gave Nutty Sports a munch on a reality sandwich.

I wasn't concentrating as much on the games last night due to playing poker but I will take a look at the Saint's match this afternoon and try and work out where that St Louis performance came from. The important thing is to accept defeat rather than chase it. Look at where any errors might have been made and look at where we were going right in an attempt to bounce back to winning ways.

So as always I have compiled my early handicap lines and published below.

Week 11

Pitsburgh - 4.5 @ kansas
at Green Bay -3 San Francisco
Indianapolis -2.5 @ Baltimore
at Minnesota -9.5 Seattle
at Dallas -5.5 Washington
at New York Giants -3.5 Atlanta
New Orleans -14 @ Tampa Bay
at Jacksonville -3 Buffalo
Arizona -5 @ St Louis
at New England -9 New York Jets
Cincinnati -4.5 @ Oakland
San Diego -3 @ Denver
at Chicago -3.5 Philadelphia
at Houston -3.5 Tennesse

I am not going to rush into anything this week so will take my time studying all the match ups. I'm returning to London tomorrow and have a busy week ahead so I may be a while before coming to any conclusions this week. I will try and get the Vegas lines up tomorrow.

Week 6 Elimination.

2009-11-15T12:14:00.000Z

Having crowed about how easy trading the elimination market has been I made a right hash of it this week. Worse still I was trying to demonstrate my "winning strategy" to my brother-in-law which probably mirrored a Monty Python sketch.

Queen week doesn't really work for me, I'm not a big fan and the acts reminded me why.

Jamie was trading around 6/1 before his performance and it is generally accepted opening the show is a slight disadvantage and I don't think the song choice helped him much. His price to be eliminated now stands at around 11/4 and shortened slowly throughout the night. I think Jamie is bang in trouble tonight but I hope I'm wrong.

Lloyd is still the favourite but his price as stayed pretty constant and he was at least handed some positive comments from the judges. I personally thought his vocals weak again. Lloyd may be another act to benefit from Lucie's departure as some of her Welsh voters may transfer to Baby Becks.

Were Jedward any good? I think they are improving but when you start at the bottom there is only one way to go. They are still awful singers. Their price has eased steadily and are now 3rd favourites to go.

Olly and Stacey appear to be very safe. The elimination of Lucie has strengthened Stacey's position in several ways in my opinion. They need to keep a girl in the show if only to offer some variety and like I said in an earlier post I think she the more likely to pick up the most of Lucie's voters.

People appear to like Joe, but I don't. He just doesn't look believable as a pop star to me. When I watch Olly he seems so comfortable on the stage but Joe always looks uneasy. He is obviously Cheryl's favourite. However, I am sure we will see him in the bottom two very soon.

Danyl was good, but must also be considered for a bottom two place. Since finding himself there a few weeks ago he has bounced back but fans may start to get complacent with him again. It has happened a few times in these shows before where fans spread their votes to other acts assuming Danyl or the like are safe and it has backfired. This could happen again this week.

Looking at the market on the exchanges I think it might be worth a small lay of Lloyd to be in the bottom two. It is possible to lay it at 4/7 at time of going to press but I imagine it will be possible to lay it at 1/2. I think his fans will continue to vote this week, as I said earlier he may well pick up some extra Welsh votes and he did have his best week according to the Judges.

1pt Lay Lloyd week 6 bottom 2 at around 4/7

A few Song updates...

2009-11-14T17:51:00.000Z

As suspected the early songs I listed were not 100% accurate. I have copied the official song list below :

Stacey - Who Wants To Live Forever
Joe - Somebody To Love
Lloyd - Crazy Little Thing Called Love
Danyl - We Are The Champions
Jamie - Radio Gaga
Olly - Don't Stop Me Now
John and Edward - Under Pressure

Apparently Jedward will be adopting the Vanilla Ice version. I'll have an update tomorrow with my elimination views.

X Factor - Queen Week.

2009-11-14T11:26:00.000Z

I have a list of songs for Queen week on X Factor tonight. There are a few rumours surrounding Stacey's song so I cannot confirm all the songs are 100% correct at this time but here they are:

Olly - Don't Stop Me Now
Joe - Somebody To Love
Stacey - No One But You
Jamie - Seven Seas Of Rhye
Jedward - Radio Ga Ga
Danyl - We Are The Champions
Lloyd - Crazy Little Thing Called Love

A pretty solid song choice all round. Jamie has found a great track, I think I am right in saying it was Queen's first hit and it could be a show stopping performance from the Afro Man.

I like Olly's choice too, it might be my favourite Queen track and I am confident he will perform well again.

Danyl's song suggests we could see the return of his confidence or arrogance depending on your view point. He should sing it well and avoid the "screaming" that Dannii mentioned last week.

Jedward, please go home.

Lloyd is reportedly going to have a big production tonight, he probably needs it to be fair. His voters came out in force last week to save "Baby Becks" and they will need to again for him to make it to week 7.

Joe has chosen another song that should be fairly easy to perform but he really is starting to be a bit dull. How much longer will fans put up with his cheesy grin and stale routine on stage. I am not going to suggest he will be in the bottom two this week but I wouldn't mind if he was.

Stacey should be safe this week regardless of her song. I think she is the most likely to pick up any of Lucie's voters and that will strengthen her position. She is also the only girl left and I am sure ITV and Simon Cowell will want a girl in the final stages.

If there are any differences in songs I will post them around 5pm for I'm hopeful these are correct. As far as a bet goes it is a tricky week. We will need to gauge the feeling towards Simon's acts.

The acts that have been in the bottom 2 before would be a good starting point so we need to look at Danyl, Lloyd and Jedward. Danyl's fans seem to have found their phones again so he may well be fine for a while yet.

Jedward are hard to call. Their fans may have got complacent last week and come out fighting this week, which is a popular feature (Lloyd, Rachel & Danyl have all experienced this) on the other hand they may well have run their course and be in big trouble.

Jamie would be an obvious option, but I have a feeling he may well be awarded performance of the night. I am not going to have a bet at this stage, I will be trading the elimination market again tonight though and perhaps I will have a view after watching the show a couple of times. I'll let you know tomorrow.

We have a bet!

2009-11-11T12:17:00.000Z

I'm staying away from Tampa, one win does not justify a bet and I feel it would be too much like guessing to suggest they can keep it close against Miami who have arguably been unlucky in defeat a few times this season.

I've looked long and hard at all the games again this week and although my early lines don't support this I have decided that New Orleans will have far too much for a poor St Louis team at the Edward Jones Dome.

So far New Orleans are 6 & 2 against the spread which includes 3 & 0 on the road. I really do not put as much emphasis on home advantage as some do and in many cases the team spirit is lifted by travelling as the players feel less pressure and have more time together in the hotel creating a strong team unity.

New Orleans have battled back twice now (Miami & Carolina) and secured a lot of 2nd half points as their opponents D-Line has tired and I think The Rams defense will be very tired in the latter quarters on Sunday.

It's no suprise that the point spread is only 50 for this match up even though New Orleans have averaged 37.9 points per game and 40.3 points on the road. It's simply because St Louis who have been shut out twice (Seattle & San Francisco) have only averaged 9.6 and a slighlty better 11 points per game at home.

St Louis come off a bye week, which probably wasn't an ideal time for them because they did manage their first win in 18 games the week before, when a last minute touchdown gave them a 17-10 win against Detroit.

Rookie head coach Steve Spagnuolo (known more for defense) has no choice but to stick with QB Marc Bulger even though he has only thrown 3 touchdowns in their 8 matches so far. Compare that to Drew Brees and you can imagine the fear of Rams fans as the game approaches.

A 2 touchdown victory will be enough to cover but I think the Saints will win this game by 20+ points and I'm not concerned that they might take their foot of the gas when out of sight because Drew Brees works endlessly to improve his stats in an attempt to break more records.

In what is a tough week for punters I am certain New Orleans can take us to 8 & 0.

2pts New Orleans Saints -13.5 generally.

Vegas Lines - Week 10

2009-11-10T12:20:00.000Z

When I reviewed my lines last night I tried looking at them from a betting point of view and thought that the line I had given Tennesse looked like a good bet. Upon checking Vegas they have doubled it so I have likely made a mistake there.

Vegas - Week 10, with my lines in brackets:

At San Francisco -3 (3.5) Chicago

At NY Jets -6.5 (5.5) Jacksonville

Denver -5 (4.5) At Washington

At Pittsburgh -6.5 Cincinnati

At Tennessee -6.5 (3) Buffalo

At Minnesota -16.5 (12.5) Detroit

New Orleans -13.5 (12.5) At St. Louis

Atlanta -1.5 (2.5) At Carolina

At Miami -9.5 (6) Tampa Bay

At Oakland -1.5 (+2.5) Kansas City

At Arizona -9 (6.5) Seattle

At San Diego -2.5 (2.5) Philadelphia

Dallas -3 (1.5) At Green Bay

At Indianapolis -3 (2.5) New England

Baltimore -11 (9.5) At Cleveland

For some reason I missed Pitsburgh and Cincinnati's match up, probably due to the game last night, where Hines Ward found the end zone twice giving me a good victory in my fantasy league game.

So differences this week? I made Kansas favourites against Oakland and Vegas disagreed. The Chiefs have just released Larry Johnson for posting an interent comment and Oakland are back from a Bye week. It is a tricky one because both teams have losing records although The Raiders have managed 2 wins and are the home team so it is easy to see why Vegas favour them.

I will of course study all the match ups this week over the next few days but I am going to start with Tampa. They had a very unsuspected win against Green Bay on Sunday getting them off the mark and Vegas give them 3.5 points more than I did against their state rivals Miami. A good look at how these teams match up will be my starting point.

I am obviously pleased with 7 straight wins but will be absolutly gutted if I can't keep it going. The 8th winner will come this weekend of that I am sure.

7 Up, Now Back To The Grind.

2009-11-09T11:37:00.000Z

I'm still not sure how much of a sweat Carolina gave us last night. I know a lot of people were only able to get +13 or +13.5 but I felt it was fairly comfortable throughout. The Panthers started well again cruising into a 14 point lead and The Saints had to revert to their running game in the 2nd half to put the points on the board.

I don't think Carolina would have scored from the drive had they not fumbled the ball on their own 2 yard line with less than 2 minutes remaining but the resulting Touchdown by The Saints making the score 30-20 flattered New Orleans in my opinion.

The main thing was we found another winning bet and the time and effort put in is reaping rewards so back to the grind we go. I have compiled my early lines for week 10 below.

at San Francisco -3.5 Chicago
Atlanta -2.5 @ Carolina
at Miami -6 Tampa
at Minnesota -12.5 Detroit
at New York Jets -5.5 Jacksonville
New Orleans -12.5 @ St Louis
at Tennesse -3 Buffalo
Denver -4.5 @ Washington
Kansas -2.5 @ Oakland
at Arizona -6.5 Seattle
Dallas -1.5 @ Green Bay
at San Diego -2.5 Philadelphia
at Indianapolis -2.5 New England
Baltimore -9.5 @ Cleveland

Byes Houston & New York Giants.

I feel relieved that The Giants have found a Bye week. Having made it to 5-0 they now find themselves at 5-4 and a week off with extra practise will be vital to get them back on track before they find themselves with too much to do in the NFC East.

The big match up next week is clearly New England's trip to Indianapolis. I'm giving the unbeaten Colts a narrow edge but they will need to improve on their last two performances to beat The Patriots.

I'll post the Vegas lines tomorrow after the Steelers/Broncos game where I am hoping Hines Ward can score 5 points or more for my fantasy team to give me another winning week ;o)

On another note I was very disappointed with the X Factor last night. I have always considered Simon fairly honest and straight forward but for whatever reason he did not do the right thing last night. I remember his quote just after they had narrowed the acts down to 24 - he said to Louis "If I get the groups, the Twins aren't even getting on the plane".

His actions last night were not worthy of him, he said he would put the best performance through, he did not. Whether he thinks the twins are providing more media coverage for the show or not, it is wrong to make a talented singer like Lucie suffer. Whatever happens won't affect Simon much because he will make money whatever the outcome, but his actions may well be detrimental to his acts as fans of the show fight back the only way they can.

Week 5 Elimination.

2009-11-08T11:50:00.000Z

I always find it helpful to watch the show a couple of times before coming to any decisions. Quite often when watched live for the first time bias can set in as you are cheering for the acts you have invested in. This is also apparent with the judges and their knee jerk reactions, quite often you will hear Simon take something back after watching the show again.

I was trading the elimination market on the exchanges last night and I really couldn't believe how simple it was. I was able to lock in profit on Lloyd, Danyl, Stacey, Jedward, Joe & Jamie. It will be a shock if I don't have a winning week.

On to the performances, starting with Stacey, and her "personality" is starting to grind somewhat. I am sure comedians and impersonaters are praying that she wins because she will be so easy to take off. Lift shoulders, grin relentlesly, shake head quickly from left to right and the rest is easy. Her performance was not that great either, decent song from a very good film but it was only an average performance and I think Louis Walsh could do sexy better. We are aware that going first is not ideal but last night Stacey was the only act to coincide with Strictly Come Dancing and a few might have held on for the results from the Beeb missing her introduction (the PR part) which won't help her cause. Its always hard to tell how strong an acts support is when they haven't been in the bottom two before, but I think she will be one of the first "fancied" acts to fill that spot.

Olly was very good. I thought the whole performance was entertaining. It might not be the best song to show of your vocal range but it was virtually faultless. Yes the Judges want him to step it up a gear but I don't think he will have any problem nailing any song he is given. For me the competition is his to lose.

I thought Lloyd was better last night, but the judges seem determined that he will be the next to go. I'm not sure what happened to his legion of fans last week, has their credit on their phones run out? Had Mothers round the nation just recieved a big phone bill? If Lloyd finds himself in the bottom two this week (and the market cetainly thinks he will) the only act he is likely to survive against is John and Edward.

Jamie changed his song again, as I had originally thought he was to do Unchained Melody and the last minute change was a good idea. The judges liked it, commenting on the emotion he put into the performance and although I was unsure at first, when I watched it back the second time I definitly enjoyed it more and it may well be his best performance to date. However not all voters will be watching the re-run and the prices suggest he could be in the bottom two this week as I suggested yesterday. It is tricky to call because like Stacey we can't be sure as to how many people are voting for him yet. I hope he gets through but he is a likely contender for the sing off tonight.

Lucie was not as good as last week, the song was a bit dull. I'm not sure what type of singer she is trying to become doing Guns and Roses one week and then following it up with a disney track means you might not attract the same support. That being said I can't see her in the bottom two this week and will probably be Dannii's last act in the competition in weeks to come.

Danyl certainly looked better last night. The song was perfect for him but I still felt his performance was a little subdued compared to his past efforts. I was hoping for a show stopping performance from him with that track but I don't think he managed it. That being said I am certain it was good enough and the all important PR should see him through.

John and Edward. I like them less each week especially when Louis is squealing like a piglet about how much the public like them and how entertaining they are. Personally I had to go and hide behind the couch during their performance last night. I'd plead for common sense to prevail and ask people not to vote for them if I thought it would do any good but they look safe. One thing I noticed on the exchanges last night was how big their bottom two price is compared to their elimination price. This is solely because if they do find themselves in the bottom two they will be eliminated by the judges.

Joe got the hot slot last night as all acts would prefer to go last. He sang the song well as he has done every week but was it good enough to make you pick up the phone? I'm not sure who is voting for him because when I research the "fans" feelings I am yet to encounter a Joe fanatic. Should be safe as houses this week but I'll re-iterate my feelings, he is not a likely winner. Just too smiley and boring to win outright in my opinion.

I find myself in a decent position this week on the elimination market and won't lose a penny on whoever goes, I have mentioned this market before but was more apprehensive due to the extra day of voting. Well it hasn't affected the market at all and I would advise anyone to give it a go. For example I was able to back LLoyd at 6/4 during his perfomance last night and lay him off at 10/11 during the judges comments. It is that simple.

I think it is a difficult week and when these circumstances arise maybe it might be an idea to have a small bet at a big price. The action on the exchanges has cooled down and probably won't pick up again until the show starts tonight so tread carefully when taking the prices on offer. The market has Lloyd nailed on for bottom 2 with Jamie at 5/4 and Stacey at 3/1 it could well be a coin flip between the two so a small bet on Stacey may reap rewards.

0.5pt Stacey bottom two 3/1 Boyles or Betfair.

Hands up - a few amendements required.

2009-11-07T18:22:00.000Z

It looks like my earlier source has got a number of songs wrong again. I had heard that there were two possibilities for a few of the artists, so the official list is now revealed below.

Stacey Son Of A Preacher
Lucie This Is Me - Demi Lovato (From Camp Rock).
Joe Circle Of Life - Elton John (From The Lion King).
Lloyd Stand By Me
Danyl Purple Rain.
Jamie Crying - Roy Orbison.
Olly Twist And Shout.
John and Edward Ghostbusters Theme - Ghostbusters.

What does this mean then? Well I am still not enthralled by Jamie's song although it is a better option than Unchained Melody. Lloyd will be trying to play it safe with a steady ballad rather than the up tempo gamble.

Stacey's song is a decent one and Lucie's song will still be popular with the viewers I expect. Apologies for the earlier errors, but I still think Jamie may well find himself in the bottom two this week.

X Factor - Movie Week.

2009-11-07T13:24:00.001Z

So on we go to week 5 of X Factor and apparently that means we are now half way through. There have been a few late song changes this year but at the time of going to press the below is correct.

John and Edward – Ghostbusters.
Danyl Johnson – Purple Rain.
Stacey Soloman – Mad World.
Olly Murs – Twist and Shout.
Jamie Archer – Unchained Melody.
Joe McElderry – Circle Of Life.
Lloyd - Footloose.
Lucie - This Is Loose.

John and Edward, what can I say? I'm sure they will be in full Ghostbusting uniform prancing around the stage and the only thing in doubt is what track will they massacre next week.

It's a good solid song choice for Danyl, it will let him attack the vocals and display his voice, really should be safe this week.

Jamie could be in trouble, he is getting some bad press and this song has been done to death. I'm not sure how many people will be urged to pick up the phone after hearing Unchained Melody for the millionth time.

Joe also has a dodgy song. If I recall correctly in a previous series Eton Road were eliminated when covering this song. It's not great and although Joe is one of the market leaders he may well be in trouble this weekend. I expect the judges to criticise Cheryl's song choice again this week.

Really not sure about how LLoyd will pull Footloose off. I think we may see a big stage show similar to the twins tactics in order to detract from his vocal performance.

Personally I would have liked to see Olly take more of a chance, its a bit predictable singing Twist and Shout but I'm sure he'll be fine.

Stacey may also struggle. I'm not sure how this song will suit her and she will be forced to "stand still" again rather than the miraculous walking she did last week which is bound to be mentioned.

Lucie's song is a aimed at the target audience, it will probably be a popular pick and will likely be enough to see her through to week 6.

I will write an update tomorrow before the elimination show after I have reviewed the performances a couple of times. At this stage though it may be worth considering a bet on Jamie to be in the bottom two.

Seventh Heaven?

2009-11-04T18:58:00.000Z

I have literally spent the last 24 hours thinking of nothing but football, American football of course. I looked at Chicago in some depth who are 3 & 0 at home but just could not split them enough from an Arizona side who are 3 & 0 on the road to recommend a bet. Something will have to give but I can't be sure what.

Likewise with Baltimore, they could quite easily follow last weeks win against Denver with a good win in Cincinnati but after the Bengals' week 5 win at Baltimore where Cedric Benson rushed for over 100 yards (the first player to do so against Baltimore since 2006) I just can't be sure enough. Cincinnati look decent this year, WR Chad Ocho Cinco seems to be fitting in better this term and offers quite a talent. Another no bet game for me.

Houston have had their best ever start to a season with a 5 & 3 record and I'm still hopeful that they can make the play offs. I don't think Indianapolis will cover the 9 point handicap but with Houston's TE Owen Daniels out for the rest of the season following his injury against Buffalo I'd like to know who is going to replace him. Personally I'd like to see The Texans play WR Glenn Martinez at TE to offer the similar pace and threat that Daniels does but it is likely that they will play it safer. I can't quite justify a bet here, but I do expect it to be another tight divisional battle.

So where have I placed my money in order to make it 7 out of 7. I've put it firmly in the hands of Jake Delhomme and his Carolina Panthers. Delhomme will be fit for Sundays game against his old team New Orleans Saints. I know it's unusual to take on a team with a 7 & 0 record but this is the time to do it. Delhomme is actually 8 & 2 against his old club and that is a big positive.

As I have said in an earlier post The Panthers are rated no:1 in pass defense and they will run the ball hard offensively which is all the right assets to have against New Orleans.

Carolina were quick out of the blocks against Arizona on Sunday and ended up beating last years Superbowl runners up 34 - 21 and keeping Larry Fitzgerald fairly quiet in the process.

Yes New Orleans are at the top of their powers but the more thought I put into this divisional match up the more I am confident that my original line of -7 will be much closer to the mark. Carolina have won 3 of their last 4, they made the play offs last season and will be going all out for that AFC wild card spot.

Coral are the only firm left offering Carolina +14 now as all the other firms have dipped below the 2 touchdown line. Get on quick before it's all gone.

1pt Carolina Panthers +14 @ 8/9 Corals

Vegas Lines and a few early thoughts.

2009-11-03T14:06:00.000Z

So what have Vegas come up with for Week 9? I have posted their lines below with my views compiled yesterday in brackets.

At Jacksonville -6.5 (-5.5) Kansas City

Baltimore -3 (-3) At Cincinnati

At Indianapolis -9 (-4.5) Houston

At Atlanta -10 (-6.5) Washington

Green Bay -10 (-6) At Tampa Bay

At Chicago -3 (-5) Arizona

At New England -10.5 (-9) Miami

At New Orleans -14 (-7) Carolina

At Seattle -10 (-6.5) Detroit

At San Francisco -4 (-3.5) Tennessee

At NY Giants -4.5 (-3.5) San Diego

At Philadelphia -3 (-2.5) Dallas

Pittsburgh -3 (-2.5) At Denver

Straight away there are two games that I have made a lot closer than Vegas. Now obviously my lines haven't moved and Vegas' move often. I think it prudent to start here though when searching for the weeks bet.

New Orleans host Carolina and Vegas have given the Panthers a 2 touchdown start. We know The Saints have been firing so far and are now the proud owners of a perfect 7 & 0 record. Carolina sit at 3 & 4 having started with 3 straight defeats and are improving their numbers especially rushing yards where the likes of DeAngelo Williams played a prominant part in their defeat of Arizona on Sunday.

The Saints were made to work hard for their victory at home to Atlanta last night and like I've emphasised before divisional games do spark that extra bit of rivalry that can often keep the game tighter.

In order to consider Carolina as a potential bet we would need to look closely at their pass defense and interestingly enough they are ranked 1st in the NFL conceding only 160.6 yards. The Saints have been scoring heavily but they have also been conceding too, they are ranked 20th with an average of 22.0 points conceded per game - for a team that is unbeaten that does look on the high side.

Panthers' Quarterback Jake Delhomme was injured on Sunday and we will have to be sure of his fitness also. Taking on The Saints might be a little risky but I think my line will be closer to the one Vegas has published. I will review my thoughts on this match in the next couple of days when team news is more certain.

The next game where I differ from Vegas by some 4.5 points (which equates to half) is Houston's divisional battle in Indianapolis. Yep, Houston again. They do seem to be putting some consistency together and after The Colts sub par performance on Sunday my reaction was to keep this game close.

Vegas say that Indianapolis are 9 points better than Houston, but lets remember they are laying these prices and therefore need to keep some teams on side. A 7 & 0 Indianapolis team will attract action, they will be in multiple bets as well as bigger hitters lumping on them so it is my feeling that sometimes Vegas (and bookies) will offer slight value on their opponents. I don't lay my lines - I look to try and make each game a tie or close to it when I compile my handicaps. The Colts with Peyton Manning pulling the strings do look a force but San Francisco only condeded 18 points against them this weekend yet Vegas had the closing line at -13.

Houston do have a winning record of 5 & 3 and their numbers are not bad. They average 24.8 points a game (12th) (having started badly in week 1 scoring only 7) to the Colts 28.1 (7th). Again I will be waiting to catch up on how practise is going during the week because I was a little suprised that RB Steve Slaton was sent to the bench against Buffalo - although he has been fumbling I rate him quite highly and I'd be interested to know if Head Coach Gary Kubiak is likely to favour Ryan Moats this coming week.

For the time being the research continues, but I am confident of finding the 7th winner plenty before the action gets underway.

Week 9 Lines - an early view

2009-11-02T11:44:00.000Z

So Dallas did the business comfortably taking us to 6 & 0. It was another exciting night of action made easier by the horrible defense of Seattle.

Reading the Racing Post yesterday I was suprised to see their NFL writer tipping up Seattle to win especially as his arguements seemed to further enhance the view of Nutty Sports. He opened with the facts that The Seahawks were suufering with injuries and had just lost LB Lofa Tatupu for the season yet still took on an improving Dallas side. To give him his dues he did call it right with Baltimore and Oakland.

The Ravens sent Denver back to reality with a crushing display and San Diego were not even close to covering the 17 point start given to divisional rivals Oakland. I had thought Oakland may be a team to study as Vegas were slowly increasing their handicaps but they are on a bye week in week 9 so we will have to wait.

On to my lines for week 9, which I have ensured are the correct fixtures this week and have published below.

at Cincinnati -3.5 Baltimore
at Chicago -5 Arizona
at Atlanta -6.5 Washington
Green Bay -6 @ Tampa Bay
at New England -9 Miami
at Jacksonville -5.5 Kansas
at Indianapolis -4.5 Houston
at New Orleans -7 Carolina
at Seattle -6.5 Detroit
at San Francisco -3.5 Tennesse
at New York Giants -3.5 San Diego
at Philadelphia -2.5 Dallas
Pitsburgh -2.5 @ Denver

Byes: Buffalo, Cleveland, Minnesota, NY Jets, Oakland and St Louis.

I'm sure the Jets will be pleased for a rest week to try and regroup after what has been a bad few weeks for them.

Tough games to compile this week included Houston @ Indianapolis. As you know I've struggled to get Houston right this season so far but The Colts did not look as impressive against The 49ers yesterday and I wouldn't want to give them to much to do in the AFC South match up.

Denver face reigning champions Pitsburgh after their first defeat of the season and it will be interesting to see if they are capable of bouncing back with what would be a great victory or if The Steelers have found the right time to play them.

Another divisional match up for Philadelphia this week sees Dallas head to Lincoln Financial Field and the winner will take outright leadership in the NFC East after the Giants lost their 3rd game in a row. As a Giants fan it is a worrying time. They did have a decent start to the season but as soon as they came up against teams with winning records they struggled. They must beat The Chargers this week to get back on track.

I will post The lines from Vegas tomorrow - its normally better to wait until the completion of the Monday night game which could be a cracker as Atlanta travel to New Orleans.

X Factor week 4 elimination.

2009-11-01T15:43:00.000Z

I watched the show back last night and I'm not suprised one iota that Olly Murs has gone clear favourite. He was an original pick and I do expect him to be right bang in it at the business end.

Reviewing the other performers last night I feel Lucie - who I've not been a fan of to date had her strongest week, I enjoyed her performance and would have to think she will sail through to next week. Jamie probably wasn't as good as people expected him to be, he was solid and I still think he has one of the stronger voices but when a lot is expected of you it is very hard to deliver. Louis sees him as the weaker link in Simon's group and attacks him relentlessly but I'm sure viewers will see through it because Louis is not of high intellect and struggles to make a good point and often lets himself down further with nothing short of bitchiness.

After Stacey performed the highlight apparently was that "she walked". It wasn't great and to be honest none of her songs have been anything other than dull. How long can her personality keep her in, for my money not that much longer.

Excluding the twins I think it obvious that Lloyd was the worst performer again last night. Will his legion of fans come to his rescue again? He has (with Joe & Olly) been topping the weekly phone vote according to my source. I think he will be safe enough for a while yet, which is a shame because better singers who aren't considered as good looking will suffer in the meantime. We must take this in to account when betting though, and I am considering a lay of Lloyd at around 5/2 for elimination this week.

Rachel wasn't quite so animated post song this week, which can only be a good thing. I think she performed well and is definitly improving. I'm not certain she has enough "fans" and although they saved her last week that could have been a one off sympathy vote and she might find that they don't pick up the phone for her again this week.

The Twins are starting to annoy me, they are without doubt the worst act to ever appear in the finals of X Factor. Louis thinks they are likeable and people should vote for them. The man is a hypocrite. This is not a popularity contest, the key point is being a gifted singer and they are bordering on being tone deaf. I think their joke voters will save them for a while yet, but personally I hope that they leave and the competition can go back to being a tough singer contest.

Danyl was all about the PR this week, with him trying to look humble but in due process forgot to perform well. It's a tough call, he still is one of the market leaders and last week might be a case of fans spreading their vote thinking he was safe. If that was the case expect him to be first through tonight, if it wasn't then he could again be in the bottom two, becasue it was by far his worst night yet.

I actually quite liked Joe's song and performance last night. He changed gears a bit I felt and I think thats important. He is not a contender for bottom two this week but it is possible that viewers are starting to see his limitations. Simon said at boot camp he felt that Joe was a year or two away from being ready for this competition and I agree totally with that statement. He really is not a likely winner for me. I think he will need Lloyd to go soon to pick up any extra votes and that might not be possible.

So in summary, it's a tough one to call. I think Dannii would be the most concerned today for I can't see her not having to save one of her acts tonight. It'll probably be Rachel but it could be Stacey.

1pt LAY @ 5/2 Lloyd to be eliminated in week 4.

A few late song changes...

2009-10-31T18:01:00.000Z

The early list I posted today was not 100% accurate as I did warn, most were right but below is the official song list for Rock Week tonight on X Factor.

Rachel One – U2
Stacey Somewhere Only We Know - Keane
Lucie Sweet Child O' Mine – Guns 'N Roses
Joe Don’t Stop Believin' – Journey
Lloyd I Kissed A Girl – Katy Perry (Rock version)
Danyl I Don't Want to Miss a Thing - Aerosmith
Jamie Get Your Rocks Off - Primal Scream
Olly Come Together – Aerosmith version
John and Edward We Will Rock You – Five version

X Factor - Rock Week.

2009-10-31T11:33:00.000Z

Bearing in mind Tottenham kick off against Arsenal in an hour this will be just a quick post. Spurs dropped 3 points last week just when they needed them most but have been lifted by a decent cup win midweek.

Like all North London Derbies there is rarely any value and I certainly won't be having a bet, I am hopeful though Spurs can put in a decent enough performance to take away something from The Emirates.

Anyway, on to the X Factor and I have what I think are tonights songs, these are not 100% confirmed but it has come from a decent source who gave them to me correctly last week. If in doubt you can always check the official website around 5pm for confirmation.

Danyl - Careless Whisper (Seether version)
Olly - Come Together (Aerosmith version)
Jamie - Like A Prayer ( Rock version)
John and Edward - We Will Rock You (Five version)
Stacey - Somewhere Only We Know ( Natasha Bedingfield version of Keane song)
Lucie - Sweet Child Of Mine (Guns N Roses)
Rachel - One (Adam Lambert version)
Joe - Dont Stop Believing (Journey)
Lloyd - I Kissed A Girl (Rock version)

It looks like some fairly solid choices have been made this week, and so they should becuase getting it wrong should be easy enough to avoid. I really think LLoyd is starting to look weak as others are getting better and better but some research I made this week suggests that Joe, Olly & Lloyd are getting the vast majority of the votes. When this occurs we need to consider where the newly eliminated acts' votes will go. I don't think it is clear by any means as to who will go out tonight, if Rachel and the Twins manage to survive again we could lose a "big name" tonight.

At the moment we are in a great position with Olly (though we best not forget the loss of Rikki) he improved again last week in my opinion. I would like to see him reign in his passion for the ladies for a while because numerous media stories could tip any finely balanced final against him. I'm looking forward to a good show and in all honesty really hope they get rid of the twins tonight because then it could become a really good singing competition*

Come on Tottenham!

*I worry now that the Twins wil be saved so Louis Walsh isn't actless with so many weeks to go.

Weekend Soccer bet - By Ryan Zimmerman

2009-10-30T16:24:00.000Z

As we inch closer to the launch of the website that will cover many different sports by specialised punters I have invited Ryan Zimmerman to oversee the weekends Soccer action. Ryan is heavily restricted with bookmakers across the land and below is his idea of a bet on the action.

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Firstly an introduction ... my name is Ryan, and I'm not an alcoholic. Although some may contest that statement. I've known Nick for half my life and have benefited greatly from his inside knowledge of the gaming industry, as well as his own expertise on 'reality TV shows' and american sports ... particularly NFL.

I've never been a big fan of his Yarmouth dogs and am always sceptical about the horse tips that come my way. But then again, I don't trust animals!

When I asked him a couple of weeks ago if I could add a bit of domestic football tipping to his site he was rightly apprehensive, and at this moment in time, I am also. For Nick knows that I'm not a bad judge, but he also knows that the bookmakers probably like me more than I like them. And for me ... well, I'm basically sitting alongside a guy who has successfully predicted five out of five NFL results ... so it's a pressure cooker situation!

But hey, I've been given the opportunity to sit in the guest seat so let's see if I can help you to boost your accounts. We've all had a sneaky wager on a speculative accumulator at some time or another, and quite frankly, we know that betting a larger stake on three or four teams is likely to be more fruitful than a small stake on 6 or more. I don't like betting on draws, I'm not a big fan of backing away sides, and I think that the Championship is the most unpredictable league in the world.

So my mission for this weekend is to find an even(ish) money winner and a three team accumulator that will at least double your money.

Man City are generally 10/11 to win at Birmingham. They've had a couple of draws on the road (Villa, and Wigan) and lost at Old Trafford, and I think it's fair to say that they were unlucky in all three. But I don't think they'll have any problems at St Andrews. The team are beginning to gel and the fight for a place in the starting line up is beginning to hot up with Petrov, Ireland, Santa Cruz, Michael Johnson and Vladimir Weiss all given their chance to claim a position of their own in the last couple of games. It's also more than likely that the pressure will be on City to pick up their points on Sunday with Man Utd & Chelsea likely to pick up victories tomorrow. And let's not forget that Birmingham aren't very good (pl10 w3 d1 L6).

Man City to win at Birmingham ... 10/11 general

On to my sneaky three team accumulator for the weekend and I like the lower divisions and the Scottish leagues for finding good value bets. These are the divisions where you rarely get an upset, and so a team on form, and a team at home, and a team at a reasonable price is worth backing.

League Two is my preference, with the top two sides both at home. Top placed Bournemouth (won six out of seven at home) host third placed Rochdale (away form: w3 d2 L2), whilst Dag & Red (also won six out of seven at home) entertain 13th placed Port Vale (won 2 out of eight away). Throw in East Stirling (top of Scottish Division 3 and unbeaten at home) to beat Annan (who? and without an away victory) ... and we should be winners!

best price currently available is with Corals:
Bournemouth to beat Rochdale @ 11-10
Dag & Red to beat Port Vale @ 8-11
East Stirling to beat Annan @ 4-6

Time to tackle Seattle.

2009-10-28T11:05:00.000Z

Straight back down to business and I have found a bet for week 8 that I like very much. I'm normally one to shy away from teams that have large handicaps to cover but in this instance I think the 9.5 points start given to Seattle at Dallas is not enough.

Originally I had thought this game was in Seattle where the Seahawks are 2-2 and I still made Dallas solid favourites. On the road Seattle are 0-2 conceding a total of 57 and scoring 27. Overall Seattle's numbers do not look very pretty, the two games they have won were Jacksonville who are 3-3 and St Louis 0-6.

Last year on Thanksgiving The Cowboys won this fixture 34-9 (Seattle have not improved since that game whereas the confidence in Dallas is gaining momentum) and Seattle Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck had a torrid time being sacked 7 times . The signs do not look promising for Hasselbeck having been sacked 5 times last week against Arizona and I think the Cowboys will batter him once again.

Dallas are rated 2nd in the NFL for offensive yardage averaging 419.3 a game with Seattle 23rd with 310.2.

Dallas have the added incentive of being able to tie for top place in the NFL East should Philadelphia beat New York and that would put Tony Romo and his men right bang in the race for the toughest division in the National Football Conference. Here's to "America's Team" taking Nutty Sports to 6 & 0.

1pt win Dallas -9.5 generally.

Vegas Lines - Week 8

2009-10-27T12:26:00.000Z

I'm still feeling a little sick about the lack of prices for Miss World this year, the bookies really are running scared. A number of us were having to back the lovely Miss Puerto Rico with Australian firms in the early hours today but at least we managed to get some of the 12s and 8s before the guys from down under were also forced to suspend the market like their counterparts in Ireland.

So will the rest of the firms compile a market now, be interesting to see if they will now that they have missed the annual gamble, what price Miss Puerto Rico please lads?

Anyway, on to week 8 and the Vegas lines are below.

At Baltimore -3.5 Denver

At Chicago -13.5 Cleveland

Houston -3.5 At Buffalo

At Green Bay -3 Minnesota

At Indianapolis -12 San Francisco

At NY Jets -3.5 Miami

At Detroit -4 St. Louis

At Dallas -9.5 Seattle

At San Diego -17 Oakland

At Tennessee -3 Jacksonville

At Arizona -9 Carolina

At Philadelphia -1.5* NY Giants

At New Orleans -10 Atlanta

There are a couple of things that really stand out to me this week and I'm hopeful of another great bet. I will spend today and tomorrow checking on the fitness of a number of players and trying to gage who will be playing and who will be left out. A bet will follow very soon.

Week 8 Lines

2009-10-26T13:38:00.000Z

Miami gave us cause for concern on Sunday but Drew and the boys battled back to cover comfortably. In fact they won by 12 points which was very close to my 11.5 line that I compiled last Monday.

So on to week 8 and I've compiled the lines which at the moment are just early thoughts, there were a number of key injuries in Week 7 so they may well change over the next few days. There are also a couple of matches that are tricky this week. Buffalo had another good win so pricing them up at home to Houston is not clear cut, likewise with the poor road form of Chicago who travel to a weak looking Cleveland side.

Chicago -3.5 @ Cleveland
at Denver -2.5 Baltimore
at Buffalo -1.5 Houston
at New York Jets -4.5 Miami
at Minnesota -4 Green Bay
Indianapolis -9 @ San Francisco
Dallas -3.5 @ Seattle
at Detroit -4 St Louis
at Jacksonville -4.5 Tennesse
at San Diego -7.5 Oakland
at Arizona -5.5 Carolina
at Philadelphia -2.5 New York Giants
at New Orleans -9.5 Atlanta.

It's the first time this season that I have made the Giants underdogs but having lost their last two games the last place they would want to go is to divisional rivals Philadelphia. Green Bay are looking a useful side this year and they take on Brett favre's Vikings again in what could be another cracking match, whereas I doubt many are eagerly awaiting the match up between St Louis and Detroit.

I'll post the Vegas lines tomorrow. I'll be looking even harder this week because I want to find winner number 6.

EDIT: I've some of the fixtures the wrong way round again - thats twice the website I searched for them on has been incorrect so it makes a big difference to some of the lines. Chicago are actually at home to Cleveland so we don't need to worry about their road form and they will need to overcome a bigger handicap than I originally credited them with. Like wise Dallas and Green Bay are both at home and the line will change. Baltimore host Denver and therefore I'd expect a swing in points there and Finally Jacksonville visit Tennesse so some rethinking regarding that match will also be neccessary.

Quick post with X Factor songs - Big Band Week.

2009-10-24T18:04:00.000+01:00

I've been fairly busy today with the drinking but here are a list of tonights songs on X Factor, they are in no particular order but as always it will help when trying to disect the elimination market.

Rachel Proud Mary - Beyonce version

Stacey When You Wish Upon A Star - From Disney's Pinnochio

Lucie My Funny Valentine - Ella fitzgerald

Joe Sway - Michael Buble version

Lloyd - Fly Me To The Moon - Frank Sinatra

Danyl Feeling Good - Muse version

Jamie Angel Of Harlem - U2

Olly Bewitched - Steve Lawrence

John and Edward She Bangs - Ricky Martin

Miss Frank That's Life - Frank sinatra

I've always felt that Jamie might just be the best singer but it's become apparent that Simon agrees. He seems to be giving Jamie really good song choices while challenging Danyl and taking chances with the popular Olly - I guess that shows his confidence in his team. Looking at the songs again I'd be suprised if the Welsh vote was strong enough to save Lucie from the bottom two again.

Why is it only 6?

2009-10-20T23:19:00.000+01:00

I'm putting up this weeks bet a bit earlier this week because I'm fairly certain the line will change before kick off, and If it doesn't I am going to back it every day this week because I think it's my strongest bet of the year so far.

So straight to the point - and I apologise to all you Fins fans but I'm backing New Orleans in week 7 and they only have a 6 point handicap to cover. Less than one touchdown against a 2-3 Miami side. Miami rebounded well last season making the playoffs having gone 1-16 in 2007. They had a great 4th quarter against the Jets to steal the game in week 5 with 6 seconds to go and come fresh off a bye week, but as followers of this blog will know the Jets have lost their last 3 and have not lived up to their early promise. The fins' other victory also came in a divisional game against Buffalo at home.

When betting it is always advisable to back the form "horse" and they don't come in any better from right now than The New Orleans Saints. They are 5-0 having smashed the New York Giants 48-27 last weekend. Thats the number one ranked defense they put 48 points past! Drew Brees completed 15 straight passes in the first half and threw a 369 yard 4 touchdown game. Let me remind you that was a 369 yard 4 touchdown game against the best D-Line in the NFL this season.

New Orleans are real contenders this season and I wouldn't be suprised to find them in the Superbowl this year which ironically is in Miami. Looking at a few basic stats, The Saints average points per game is 38.4 which is ranked number one in the NFL over 5 games and Miami are ranked 15th with 22.4 over the 5 games. When I compiled my lines yesterday I made the Saints 11.5 point favourites and I'd be prepared to lay that so when the firms post up a 6 point handicap to cover I get very excited. The Saints are also ranked number one in the National Football league with an average of 430 offensive yards per game with Miami again at 15th with 340 per game.

It's clear Vegas and the firms favour the home team, but in my opinion they have over favoured them here. New Orleans only need to win by a touchdown to cover this line and I think they will do it comfortably.

I'm 4 and 0 for the season but this is my first 2 point recommended bet. Get stuck in and reap the rewards.

New Orleans -6 @ 10/11 generally.

4 & 0, but we've only just started.

2009-10-19T20:55:00.000+01:00

I thought the fumbles made by Buffalo in the first half were going to be costly but fortunately they were able to turn it around and actually win the ball game in overtime making our 10pt start look massive and taking Nutty Sports to 4 and 0 for the season. We can't afford to get complacent and more funds are required from the bookie's satchels and this is the place to find out how.

So back to the grind stone, I have posted my handicap lines for week 7 below:

at Green Bay -7 Cleveland
at Indianapolis -14.5 St Louis
at Pitsburgh -2.5 Minnesota
New England -12.5 @ Tampa Bay (at Wembley)
San Diego -4.5 @ Kansas
at Houston -3.5 San Francisco
at Carolina -4 Buffalo
New York Jets -5.5 @ Oakland
at Dallas -3.5 Atlanta
at Cincinnati -2.5 Chicago
New Orleans -11.5 @ Miami
at New York Giants -4.5 Arizona
Philadelphia -3.5 @ Washington

The headline game this week seems to be Minnesota at Pitsburgh and although I have made The Steelers slight favourites I must admit to liking Minnesota in this match up. I wouldn't want to be a Tampa Bay fan this weekend (or any other to be honest) if the Patriots continue with their recent form and Indianapolis could also put up some big numbers on Sunday.
Pricing up Chicago is a bit tricky as they just don't seem to be the same side on the road as they are at Home. Atlanta's trip to Dallas could also be a tight affair.

I'll have the Vegas Lines up soon enough to do the usual comparisons and then hopefully a good bet will follow. In the meantime to help the winners keep flowing feel free to click on any of the new adverts you might see around the blog.

Song list revisisted.

2009-10-17T18:24:00.000+01:00

It looks like the song list has been revised for tonight X Factor and it probably needed to be in all honesty. Obviously it will make a difference to our positions but for the time being all i can do is post the official list below - I'm too busy trading out of positions ;o)

DIVA WEEK
Rachel If I Were A Boy - Beyonce
Stacey At Last - Beyonce
Lucie How Will I Know- Whitney Houston
Joe Where Do Broken Hearts Go- Whitney Houston
Rikki R.E.S.P.E.C.T- Aretha Franklin
Lloyd Bleeding Love- Leona Lewis
Danyl I Didn't Know My Own Strength - Whitney Houston
Jamie Hurt - Christina Aguilera
Olly Fool in love - Tamyra Gray
John and Edward Oops I Did It Again- Britney Spears
Miss Frank All The Man That I Need- Whitney Houston

Diva week.

2009-10-17T12:31:00.000+01:00

So to the 2nd live show of this years X Factor, and it could be a complete car wreck. I think Simon is trying to camp the show up a bit this year to add comedy value as it has become clear to me that it's the worst bunch of wannabees in a number of years. I've copied the songs below - I think they've been very generous when referring to Britney as a diva...

Girls:
Stacey Solomon - Leona Lewis, Bleeding Love
Lucie Jones - Whitney Houston, How Will I Know
Rachel Adedegi -Beyoncé, Halo
Boys:
Lloyd Daniels - Mariah Carey, Without You
Joe McElderry - Whitney Houston, Where Do Broken Hearts Go
Rikki Loney - Whitney Houston, I Will Always Love You
Overs:
Danyl Johnson - Shania Twain, Man! I Feel Like A Woman
Olly Murs - Beyoncé, Single Ladies
Jamie Archer - Gloria Gaynor, I Will Survive
Groups
John & Edward - Britney Spears, Oops I Did It Again
Miss Frank - Whitney Houston, All The Man I Need

First thing that stands out to me is that Cheryl appears to be looking after Joe with a lot more thought than her other 2 acts. She obviously wants him to do well coming from her home town and it's starting to show already.

Olly Murs could be bang in trouble tonight. Why is he doing that song? I'd imagine he'll prance about the stage trying to "flirt" with the cameras but like I said it looks like a car wreck waiting to happen.
Danyl Johnson seems to be playing up to the comments Dannii made last week, and it looks to me as if they are not even taking the competition seriously. The groups should be fine, they are playing to their strengths, J&E can jump around in a comedy manner and have the long chorus drown out their inability to sing and Miss Frank have a decent song in my opinion.

I think Stacey is taking a chance tonight especially after what was said about Lucie (the jolly) last week after she dared to attempt a Leona number - Simon won't be impressed no matter what because Leona is his one big success from this show.

Jamie as weird as it seems will probably nail that karaoke number. I expect Rachel to be safe this week, they have found her a great song and I reckon she will be the first one through. Lucie could have played it safer and I'll be watching interestingly to see how she deals with the slightly more upbeat number. It looks like a tactical choice but it could go wrong. Lloyd should sneak through no matter what - his choice is fairly safe. Rikki has a song he will be able to sing well but at this stage with the votes spread out across so many contestants I really can't see the Scottish fans not getting him through.

With the results show being on a Sunday this year (I'm not a fan, I have to stay in all weekend now and it clashes with the NFL) the voting takes a different dimension. This week I'll be looking to get in a few early positions with Olly, I think he could be in the bottom 2 this week and it doesn't take long for a suprise exit in this show.

I think we will definitly see a suprise in the bottom two this weekend. Olly or Stacey could well be the shock candidate, and I wouldn't rule out Lucie either. I might just have a couple of quid on each of them at a price.

Week 6 - Lets Go!

2009-10-14T20:59:00.000+01:00

A big thank you to Nick Sharratt for his NBA preview. When the website is up and running I hope we will hear from Nick regularly with his insight.

So on to week 6, and it might just be the toughest week yet. It looks like I have got Houston wrong again according to Vegas anyway whose lines Nick has posted as a comment on an earlier post.

I really wanted to back Green Bay this week but there is no way I am interested when they have a 13.5 point handicap to cover. After the usual deliberation I have invested my money on Buffalo.
To do this we have to forgive them a woeful performance at home to Cleveland in week 5 but if we're searching for a positive from that game they did only concede 6 points.

New York Jets return home from two consecutive defeats on the road including a narrow late loss to divisional rivals Miami. Divisional games tend to be tight affairs as rivals try not to concede too much ground to each other and thats one reason why I think a 10 point start for Buffalo will be more than enough.

Taking a look at the team stats for the season so far it's no suprise that The Jets have more rushing yards with 660 to The Bills 588. The overall offensive yardage reads 1488 to New York and 1451 to Buffalo which is only a 37 yard difference over the 5 games. This obviously means that the Bills have put up more passing yards with 863 to The Jets 838.
The Bills have much more sacks with 12 to The Jets' 4 and that shows maybe a weakness in the passing defense of New York which may allow Bills' Quarterback Trent Edwards a little more time and the ability to step into the pocket while searching for Terrell Owens and the like.

In my lines this week I made the Jets 5.5 point favourites and I think that will be much closer to the money, it really should be a tight affair so lets go after Stan James and Coral's money.

1pt Buffalo Bills +10 @ 10/11 with Stan James and Coral.

NBA Preview - By Nick Sharratt

2009-10-13T21:13:00.000+01:00

As promised below is a preview of the upcoming NBA season by Nick Sharratt. Look out for more to come from Nick as the season gets underway.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

With the NBA season tipping off on the 28th October, here is one man’s guide to the coming season. There are 5 genuine contenders for the NBA title this year, with one team on the outside looking to break in to the elite group.

LA Lakers 5/2
Cleveland Cavaliers 15/4
Boston Celtics 9/2
Orlando Magic 10/1
San Antonio Spurs 12/1

Portland Trailblazers 25/1

Out of the three short priced favourites, Cleveland is the team I would want to back. Basketball is a sport where an individual can influence a team’s performance more than any other major sport. An injury to a key player can completely derail a team’s season. Boston are sweating on the fitness of all time great Kevin Garnett, who underwent off season knee surgery, so their price especially seems short. The Lakers won it all last year but have injury concerns of their own, with centre Andrew Bynum still forced to wear a knee brace after knee surgeries in consecutive seasons. They also added head case Ron Artest who is known for causing problems on every team he has played on. Cleveland have added Shaquille O’Neal, who though in the twilight of his career, still addresses one of their main weaknesses last season- being unable to defend Orlando’s Dwight Howard. They also have the best basketball player on the planet in Lebron James who is overdue to win his first title. The main issue that threatens to derail the Cav’s this year is Lebron’s impending free agency and whether he will bolt his home town for the bright lights of New York. The longer the season progresses with James still uncommitted the more speculation and pressure will accumulate. The Orlando Magic are a decent price considering they have upgraded their roster in the offseason and are fresh off a trip to the finals. San Antonio has the talent to compete with the very best, as long as they can keep their star players healthy- which has been a problem the last couple of years. At 16/1 they were an appealing bet, but at 12/1 I would wait and see how the season starts- they are notoriously slow starters and their price could drift to something more palatable. Looking at the outsiders, Portland has the best chance of gate crashing the party. They have a young squad who had got their first taste of post season action last year and the experience could prove invaluable. They have also added veteran playmaker Andre Miller who will give their weakest position a boost. In conclusion, Cleveland would be the recommendation for a straight win bet, but Orlando are a great value ew . I will also be keeping a close eye on San Antonio.

On a side note, I will personally be rooting for the Phoenix Suns ,as they are the team I support, but they have a weakened squad due to luxury tax concerns around the salary cap. They will be entertaining to watch and will play all out Run n’ Gun basketball, so I will be keeping a close eye on the total points market in their games with a view to backing the over’s.

Specials

The rookie of the year market appears to have some value, Tyreke Evans of Sacremeto looks a great price 11/1. the kid can score and is going to be the main man from day 1. He could put some very impressive numbers up in a hurry.
Portland at 11/4 to win their division looks a decent bet. Their main rivals are either having internal issues (Utah), or have been weakend in the offseason (Denver).
No prices available at moment but I will be on the lookout for scoring title and assist title prices.

Some over and under season win bets I like:
Phoenix Suns - 41.5 OVER, Sacramento Kings - 24.5 UNDER, Utah Jazz - 49.5 UNDER, New Jersey Nets - 28.5 UNDER, Minnesota Timberwolves - 25.5 OVER.

Week 6 Lines.

2009-10-12T20:30:00.002+01:00

I've just about managed to compile the handicap lines for week 6 and they're posted below.

at Minnesota -3.5 Baltimore
Carolina -2.5 @ Tampa Bay
at Green Bay -7.5 Detroit
Houston -3 @ Cincinnati
at Washington -6 Kansas
New York Giants -3 @ New Orleans
Jacksonville -6.5 @ St Louis
Arizona -3.5 @ Seattle
at Philadelphia -12.5 @ Oakland
at New York Jets -5.5 Buffalo
at New England -9.5 Tennesse
at Chicago -3.5 Atlanta

The game that will stand out to fans is the one in Louisianna where the 5-0 New York Giants travel to the 4-0 New Orleans Saints. This one was tough to price up. The Saints are a free throwing, high scoring team with Drew Breez pulling the strings and The Giants look the real deal with a tight D-Line and plenty of options offensively. I think Vegas will favour the home team with a line of -1.5 but I wouldn't want to give the G-Men a start and I make them 3 point favourites.

Two other games that I didn't think straightforward this week were Jacksonville at St Louis and Arizona at Seattle.
St Louis are a poor side who would struggle to cover the kitchen table let alone a handicap but Jacksonville who did have a good win in week 4 come off an absolute hiding at what appears to be a fairly average Seattle team. In the end I gave the Jags just a little less than a touchdown to overcome but wouldn't be suprised if Vegas doubled that.

So to Seattle, whose home form seems reasonable but still look a bit shaky to me. They seem to struggle against a strong O-Line and Arizona have a strong O-Line but they have not reached the heights they did in the post season last term. It's a tough call and it could go either way but for the time being I'm giving Arizona a 3.5 point edge.

I will post the Vegas Lines tomorrow and discuss any differences then as we go in search of the 4th consecutive winner!

X Factor goes live!

2009-10-10T16:06:00.000+01:00

My Saturday nights will once again revovle around the television for the forseeable future as the X Factor goes live. There is just too much money to be made trading both the outright and elimination markets "in running" and if I'm honest I actually think it's a really entertaining show.

As in all betting markets research is everything. I have a 13 year old daughter called Hollie who can be invaluable in reality show knowledge. I think it's a great advanatge to find out what the feeling is in the school playground and the informtion of what the kids are talking about has to be considered as they make up a large proportion of voters.

Each week on the show the acts tackle a different artists's work or genre and it is fairly easy to find out in advance what each act will sing. This is a slight edge because not all players on Betfair will be aware of this and if someone has a tricky or awkward number that might not suit them it is well worth taking it on board. I will review any song I'm not sure about through You tube because every effort will help.

It's unlikely I'll be trading too much tonight becasue I would prefer to watch and learn as the acts who are bound to be nervous tackle the live shows for the first time, but I have copied the songs they will sing below so we can preview a few thoughts.

Rachel Adedji - Let me Entertain you
Stacey Solomon - The Scientist
Lucie Joines - Footprints in the Sand
John & Edward - Rock DJ
Miss Frank - Who's Loving You
Kandy Rain - Addicted to Love
Lloyd Daniels - Cry me a River
Rikki Loney - Back to Black
Ollie Murs- She's the One
Danyl Johnson - And I am Telling You
Jamie Archer - Get it On
At the moment I cannot confirm which song Joe McElderry is singing although it is a Robbie Williams track.

So looking at the above I cannot say that I'm pleased with my early punt Rikki's song. It could be a bit of a car crash to be honest but hopefully this will mean he will improve next week! Lloyd Daniels I am told is popular in the school playground but he might murder his number. I think it could be a repeat of last year with Louis having two acts in the bottom two with Kandy Rain and the Twins because they really are weak, but like I said I think tonight is very much a night to watch and learn.

When trading the elimination markets the price fluctuates so much it is really very profitable. The main thing to remember is that Simon really is by far the best judge. Dannii and Cheryl are honest but not in the direct and wholesome way Simon is. Simon will tell it straight whether it be his act or even damaging his chances and he really is very rarely wrong. When Simon heaps praise or criticism then the price will fluctuate madly thereafter. Anytime you can predict his response will leave you in a very strong position.

Enjoy the show tonight, I know I will.

They don't look like Titans...

2009-10-07T19:35:00.000+01:00

We go in to week 5 of the season with 2 wins from 2 and I'm determined to keep the run going with a hat trick of victories.

I've thought long and hard about backing Houston this weekend and I may still have a punt on Sunday but for the time being I'm going to leave it.

The bet I am having is on the unbeaten Indianapolis Colts. All the firms have follwed Vegas and made them 3.5 point favourites which I am certain they will cover, in their last meeting in week 17 of 2008 the Colts triumphed 23-0 - albeit the victory meant more to Indianapolis at the time. Tennesse had a great season last year until they blew up in the play offs and they started reasonably well kicking off the season with a narrow overtime loss to the champions Pitsburgh (who have since lost twice). However since then things at Tennesse have gone down hill.

With Tom Brady not back to his form of 2007 I think Peyton Manning is the best QB in the football league, whereas veteran Kerry Collins has been struggling this term so much so that he has recieved the dreaded vote of confidence from his head coach Jeff Fischer, with Vince Young chomping at the bit to take over we may well see a change in the not too distant future. Tennesse have lost so far to Houston, New York Jets and Jacksonville whereas The unbeaten Colts have already won 2 road games including a very convincing win at last years Superbowl finalists Arizona, winning 31-10.

Manning has managed 1336 yards for 9 touchdowns to Collins' 914 yards for 5. In Fact when you look through the stats of both teams so far you cannot find any areas where Tennesse have an edge. They have more rushing yards on the board than Indianapolis but that is due to the confidence of the quarterbacks right now because The Colts far outweigh them on total offensive yardage.

All in all I think it will take a tremendous turnaround at LP Field for Tennesse to turn the tide and beat Indianapolis.

The Colts look a good bet to me at -3.5 10/11. Lets hope Peyton rips them apart to take Nutty Sports to 3-0.

On another sporting note the Baseball play offs are under way and it is going to be an exciting few weeks. There is no aftertiming allowed on this blog so I can't mention the bet I had in May on St Louis, but I have a feeling we will see what is a very strong New York Yankees team take on St Louis Cardinals for this years World Series and I can't wait for the action to get underway.

With the NBA season starting up I will try and convince Nick Sharratt to post some advice and information over the forthcoming season. Nick has a very indepth passion and knowledge for basketball and it would be great to get some of his thoughts up here.

2009-10-05T19:00:00.000+01:00

Nick Sharratt has posted the Vegas Lines for week 5 as a comment on my earlier post, but just for clarification and discussion points I've added it below with my lines in brackets;

Minnesota - 10 @ St Louis (10.5)
Dallas -7 @ Kansas City (9.5)
at Carolina -4 Washington (3.5)
at Philadelphia - 14 Tampa Bay (7.5)
at New York Giants -14.5 Oakland (11.5)
at Buffalo -6 Cleveland (6)
at Baltomore -7.5 Cincinati (5.5)
Pitsburgh -9.5 @ Detroit (9.5)
at San Francisco -2.5 Atlanta (3.5)
New England -3.5 @ Denver (1.5)
at Arizona -5.5 Houston (+2.5)
Indianapolis -3.5 @ Tennesse (5.5)
New York Jets -1.5 @ Miami (3.5)

No lines available on Jacksonville @ Seattle as yet.

So what are the differences? As I mentioned earlier I expected Vegas to give Denver a bigger start and have done so with 2 points more. There are a few other differences, for Instance Vegas make New York Giants 14.5 point favourites which is 3 points more than I did. Two things to consider here are that Eli Manning bruised his foot on Sunday and is undergoing a scan and I'd want to know he was 100% fit to play first. However on the flip side Oakland appear to be absolutly dreadful this year so arguements could be made either way.

The biggest difference is an 8 point swing on the Houston/Arizona game. Before I steam in I will keep my mind open, after all I could be wrong in my line. I have a soft spot for the Texans and have backed them for the Superbowl this year. I felt they finished really strongly last season and have a number of top class players. Matt Schaub is a solid QB, Steve Slaton scored twice on Sunday and if he can stop the fumbles really could be a quality RB. I also rate Andre Johnson as a reciever. So why do Vegas think the Cardinals are 5.5 points better?

For starters there will always be a feeling that home advantage counts. Houston are 1-0 on the road beating Tennesse 34-31. It's difficult to tell how good a win this was at the moment because The Titans are 0-4 for the season and appear to be struggling, yet they were no.1 seeds in their conferance last season. The Cardinals had a bye week in week 4 and are 1-2 for the season losing both their home games (San Francisco and Indianapolis). Their sole win coming in Jacksonville. The Cards are capable of putting points on the board (as are the Texans) with Kurt Warner still plying his trade very well and obviously Larry Fitzgerald is one of the top recievers. I do have concerns over their ability to run the ball - they appear to be using Tim Hightower as their main Running Back and as good as he is he wouldn't be my no.1 choice.
There is too much uncertainity in this match for a bet, although I will be looking at the total points market when it's available because this one could well be a high scoring game.

I made Indianapolis 5.5 points favourites and Vegas have gone 3.5. The colts are 4-0 and The Titans are 0-4 so this could well be a bet. I know it's only a 2 point swing, but with Peyton Manning in form it could be a rout. I was concerned about the Colts with the changes they made on their coaching staff but this appears not to have affected them at all. If this game was in Indianapolis I'm sure the line would be nearer 7.5. So does the Titans home advantage count that much?
The game is next Monday and so far only Corals and Bet365 have a line (although both firms just copy Vegas) so I will wait a day or two before making a decision.

Another team who had a bye week are Philadelphia. They face Tampa this weekend and Vegas differs from me on this game by 6 points giving The Buccanners a 14 point start. That may be a little big but having seen how Tampa conceded 16 points in the 3rd quarter against a weak Washington offense on Sunday wouldn't have me backing them again in a hurry. It may be my line was a bit low but time will tell as the markets take shape through the week.

I'd expect a post with my weekly bet(s) might not be so early this week but I'm sure I'll have deciphered something by Thursday....

Week 5 NFL Lines

2009-10-05T11:03:00.000+01:00

Not a bad weekend all in all. I must start with mentioning what was a scrappy but great win for Rangers in the Old Firm Derby at Ibrox yesterday. The defending all round left a lot to be desired but two well taken goals from Kenny Miller were enough in the end.

Anyway, back to the serious business, Tampa started well leading 10-0 at half time and although Washington made a match of it scoring 16 points in the 3rd quarter they were unable to cover the 7.5 handicap leaving us with a 2nd successive winning bet. I said in the post that I made Washington 3.5 point favourites and that turned out to be pretty much on the money as the score ended 16-13. I noticed late on Sunday Blue Square took a view against the rest of the firms and went Washington -9 at 4/5. Very brave of them but perhaps they should be reading this ;o).

I also mentioned Jacksonville last week and the swing of 5.5 points between my line and that of Vegas. I had made The Jaguars 3.5 point favourites whereas Vegas gave them a 2 point start. The Jags won the game comfortably leaving The Titans at 0-4 and they really do look like a completely different franchise than last season.

Other pointers of the week - San Francisco smashed St Louis even without the injured Frank Gore and I think pricing up St Louis both on the money Line and the point spread will be tougher in weeks to come because they are so bad.

As always on a Monday morning I have compiled the point spread on the forthcoming weekend's matches. I like to get them up early so I can compare with Vegas and then the firms as and when they publish.

Week 5.

at Baltimore -5.5 Cincinatti
at Buffalo - 6 Cleveland
Pitsburgh -9.5 at Detroit
at Carolina -3.5 Washington
Dallas -7.5 at Kansas
at Philadelphia -7.5 Tampa
Minnesota -10.5 at St Louis
at New York Giants -11.5 Oakland
at San Francisco -3.5 Atlanta
Houston -2.5 at Arizona
New England -1.5 at Denver
Jacksonville -4.5 at Seattle
Indianapolis -5.5 at Tennesse
New York Jets -3.5 at Miami

As always I will be interested to see what Vegas have done. There are a few interesting games next week and one or two that I struggled with. New England at Denver is tricky. The firms always like to keep New England on their side and I'm sure they will give them a bigger handicap than I have but I like Denver so far and New England are not the force they were two season ago.

Hopefully I will have a bet in the next day or two, until then, be lucky.

Opening Gambit

2009-10-01T09:07:00.001+01:00

I've often thought about recording things like poker results or betting P&L on a blog and never really had a reason to do it.

Of late I have been sending emails around to a select number of friends and colleagues with some betting information and also my views and selections. With the American Football season just underway (week 4 complete) I thought, rather than send an email I'll post my views here for nobody to see ;o)

As some may know, I enjoy deciphering reality TV shows and have proved quite successful at it in the past I won't bore you with details because I'm determined this blog will not include any aftertiming!

So there have been 3 emails sent thus far. As we go to press 2 of them are very much alive, although the 2nd of the 3 was a winner.

I am going to start the blog of with posting these 3 emails for my records if nothing else - it all counts towards the annual P&L.

The first one was an advanced thought on the X-Factor series.

Email sent: 23rd september 2009

Lets start with an unfortunate admission - It looks very much like Daniel Pearce has failed to progress from Judges houses to the live shows. I thought there might be a danger that because he'd been there before that they wouldn't risk him again and would choose the option of giving someone else a shout.

So we need to get busy to recoup any losses. Personally I find trading the eliminations is a simple and very profitable method and I'll be doing that as soon as it starts. There are a lack of girl contestants this year so anybody that stands out in the girls category should make the final on the basis that they will want to keep it as mixed as possible.

There has also been some absolutely ludicrous selections for the final 12 this year. Louis being the wrongun that he is has only gone and picked those two lads from the first show - John and Edward - ahead of Mis Fitz who if you recall did that different version of Toxic. But Louis will always choose and Irish act because, well he's Louis.

Anyways, they obviously can't win, but lets not forget really bad acts have the habit of holding on for a bit.

Here are the final 12 and their mentors: Simon Cowell, Over 25s: Danyl Johnson, Jamie Archer, Ollie Murs.

Cheryl Cole, Boys:Joe Mcelderry, Lloyd Daniels, Rikki Loney.

Dannii Minogue, Girls:Lucie Jones, Stacey Solomon, Rachel Adedji.

Louis Walsh, Groups:F R A N K, Kandy Rain, John & Edward. As you can see Louis has given himself no chance and is relying on a few ex strippers. Cheryl has picked a couple of lads from the North East (suprise, suprise) and the Scottish guy Rikki who went to the judges houses last year.

Simon has already said he should have picked him instead of another of his acts last year, he will pick up Scottish votes (he loves his mum you know) and they have been relentless when voting for their own in previous years - that Leon Jackson was helped enormously by them as he was no way the better singer (he beat Rydian) and who can forget the fat warbler Michelle McManus albeit under the Pop Idol guise.

Rikki has to be considered, best price is currently 25/1 with corals, Betfred and Bsq and I wouldn't put you off a few quid because i'm sure he'll get shorter. I'm a layer of Danyl Johnson (the jolly) I think he's going to peak to soon and the winner really needs to improve every week.

He has also started to receive a bit of bad press because his ex-manager of a band he was in is being done for fraudulently taking the money he raised for their single that was never released.

Jamie Archer is decent - he sang Sex on Fire, by Kings of Leon but I anticipate the judges calling him a one trick pony fairly quickly. Ollie Murs is the likeliest candidate to do well from Simon's group - Robbie Williams is already a fan. He has a unique soulful sound to him and he is a bit of a cheeky cockney type - i'd imagine the girls will vote in there droves. A general best price of 6/1 doesn't do it for me, so i'll be waiting for Betfair to form a market in an attempt to get 8s.

I really don't like Dannii's chances this year. 19 year old East London single mother Stacey is average at best, be prepared for lots of tears and shots of her with said child and how much of a better life she wants for it.

Lucie Jones is that 18 year old Welsh lass who I am certain will struggle with big numbers. I just can't see her going deep - she is too young and her voice hasn't developed enough yet. The last in that category is Rachel Adedji. She is 17 now - she made it to boot camp last year so she has definitly progressed. For my money her voice is stronger than Lucie's and therefore may be the last girl standing - but I won't be having a punt on anyone from Dannii's category.

I'm not going to spend anytime on Louis' category.

recommendations:1pt Rikki Loney 25/1

Ollie Murs on BF when available.

Following this email I sent what was my first NFL advice of the season in week 3;

Email sent: 27th September 2009

The season has only just got under way but already a few things are obvious. Oakland scraped past an awful Kansas side last week with a 2 minute drive with 2 minutes to go having been shut out for 58 minutes. Shut out that is by the Chiefs!

In comparison Denver dominated for large periods last week against Cleveland (who for my money are far better than Kansas) winning 27-6. Oakland QB Ja Marcuss Russell has only completed 35% of passes in the 2 games thus far whereas his opposite number Kyle Orton is over 50% in pass completion and actually ranks first in the NFL for 4th quarter pass rating.

Broncos WR needs 40 yards more to reach 3,000 career recieving yards and he might find the Raiders D-Line quite accomodating. This looks like a great opportunity for Denver to go 3 and 0 for the season. There is 5/6 available with extra-bet for them to win the match and that's the bet. although Denver -1 with the bigger firms is available at the same price.

1pt Denver Broncos 5/6

That email is as close to aftertiming that I will come, but I want to keep it for records and there were dozens of people who can verify it was sent in plenty of time.

To finish my first post I have this weekends NFL advice. I regularly discuss the gridiron action with Nick Sharratt and on a Monday after we have compiled our handicap lines for the forthcoming weeks action we will often confer before checking out what Vegas has produced. There were a few possibilities this weekend - for instance Frank Gore the star 49ers reciever is out and they were giving the Rams a 10.5 start. We both thought it too big but neither of us could muster up the heart to back what is an atrocious St Louis side.

Likewise I was tempted by a bet on Jacksonville who are hosting Tennesse. The titans have suprisingly gone 0 and 3 for the season and I made Jacksonville ever so slight favourites but Vegas (and therefore most firms *sigh*) gave the jags a 2 point start. I probably should have a bet and I might after checking the days team news but i'm by noway certain.

Which leads me to the one bet I have had this week, the email was sent on Monday 29th September.

A good start last week with an easy win for Denver could be followed up here by the firms overplaying the Redskins home form.

Washington lost at Detroit last week to a team that had previously gone 19 loses in a row and had a rookie QB looking for his first win in the top flight. How much of a shock was it - well I wasn't on but it does go someway to highlight the problems at Washington.

There is a lot of pressure on coach Jim Zorn with the majority of fans calling for a change and the players don't seem to know what is expected of them at the moment. Tampa haven't had a great start and are 0-3 so far. They were shut out by the Giants at Meadowlands last week but have still put more points on the board in their first 2 games (against Dallas and Buffalo) than Washington have in their 3 games to date.

The Giants are looking very strong this season even without Plaxico so it's not the worst paper performance from a franchise that we will see this season. When I did my handicap lines this week I made the Redskins 3.5 point favourites and Nick Sharratt whose opinion I value only made them 1 point favourites. Paddy Power and Corals are giving Tampa a 7.5 point start and that is good enough for me to invest.

It might not be the prettiest ball game of the season but I can't see Washington covering that line, their only victory of the season thus far being a dissmal 9-7 win over a very poor 0 and 3 St Louis side who have conceded 64 points in their other 2 games.

1pt Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 10/11.

Ok, so that was a lengthy first post. In future I shall be posting my NFL lines each Monday morning and openly comparing them to Vegas while discussing any differences. Any more bets will also be posted.

Happy punting.