Following on from my last post I forgot to include what turned out to be an all important scenario.
Scenario 3): All judges invite 1 act back, call them a wildcard and they each bring 4 acts to the live show.
Now obviously had I considered this I wouldn't have been laying the "any other" option. To be honest looking back it was something that needed consideration. The show was longer than any other opening show had been and it wouldn't be considered fair for one judge to have a numerical advantage.
Having watched the show I grew a little in confidence. Wagner will survive a few weeks for comedy value, TreyC is very good and Diva Feva like Wagner will become boring in the coming weeks. In my mind that left Paije as a danger, he sounded awful, looked awful and sang a ridiculous song. I expect him to be bottom two next week.
So having dodged that bullet we ended up getting the lot with Nicolo getting the boot first (previously tipped on this blog).
As far as the winner goes it is no suprise to us at Nutty Towers that Aiden is now favourite. Aiden, tipped up here at 10/1 is generally around 4/1 now. We also have a bet on Cher and to be honest I don't expect to be collecting on that. I think she has given her best performance (1st audition),she isn't really likeable and I imagine her fading out around 5th or 6th, I hope i'm wrong because a different type of act winning might just help the show continue in future years.
Atlanta Falcons covered the spread in Cleveland this week getting us off the mark for the NFL season so hopefully we can kick on from there and find another winner for week 6.
I've just arrived back in Spain so will be taking it easy for the rest of the day and intend to post my week 6 lines tomorrow.
Monday, October 11, 2010
Friday, October 8, 2010
X Factor Coup?
There was quite a lot of interest into my claim on Facebook that I had found "The bet of the year" so rather than reply to all I figured I'd post my thoughts here....
As some of you will know the X Factor returns on Saturday with their live shows. There has been quite a lot of controversey surrounding the selections made by some of the judges this year. Whether or not that has anything to do with the "twist" the show is adding is unknown.
However, the "twist" is that each judge can nominate an act that they didn't put through, and then there will be a public vote allowing one of these acts to join the live shows.
The selected acts as I understand it are as follows: (Groups) Diva Feva, (Boys) Paije, (Girls) TreyC and (Over 28s) Wagner.
I would imagine one of the two scenarios will occur:
1) We will be invited to vote for the act we want to see make the live shows and the results will be given on the Sunday show (allowing for plenty of votes).
If this scenario is correct then an act will be eliminated before the new act joins the live show.
2) We will be invited to vote for the act we want to see make the live shows at the beginning of Saturday's show with the winning act singing live at the end of show.
This will mean they too could be eliminated in the first week.
Either way, I am fairly certain the new addition to the show will not be booted out first. Obviously the first scenario is better but even if the second scenario turns out to be correct, how likely are the public to vote in another act, giving them a reprieve only to boot them out a couple of hours later?
With this in mind I have been laying "Any other" to be first to be eliminated on Betfair. There isn't a lot of liquidity but it has been possible to do blocks every now and again. I have layed bits as short as 2/1 or thereabouts and will continue to do so until the show starts.
It just seems a gift to me.
As some of you will know the X Factor returns on Saturday with their live shows. There has been quite a lot of controversey surrounding the selections made by some of the judges this year. Whether or not that has anything to do with the "twist" the show is adding is unknown.
However, the "twist" is that each judge can nominate an act that they didn't put through, and then there will be a public vote allowing one of these acts to join the live shows.
The selected acts as I understand it are as follows: (Groups) Diva Feva, (Boys) Paije, (Girls) TreyC and (Over 28s) Wagner.
I would imagine one of the two scenarios will occur:
1) We will be invited to vote for the act we want to see make the live shows and the results will be given on the Sunday show (allowing for plenty of votes).
If this scenario is correct then an act will be eliminated before the new act joins the live show.
2) We will be invited to vote for the act we want to see make the live shows at the beginning of Saturday's show with the winning act singing live at the end of show.
This will mean they too could be eliminated in the first week.
Either way, I am fairly certain the new addition to the show will not be booted out first. Obviously the first scenario is better but even if the second scenario turns out to be correct, how likely are the public to vote in another act, giving them a reprieve only to boot them out a couple of hours later?
With this in mind I have been laying "Any other" to be first to be eliminated on Betfair. There isn't a lot of liquidity but it has been possible to do blocks every now and again. I have layed bits as short as 2/1 or thereabouts and will continue to do so until the show starts.
It just seems a gift to me.
Missed The Boat
I had made Carolina 2.5 point favourites this week in their game against Chicago and very early lines released from Vegas and then the UK firms showed they disagreed with me giving The Panthers a 2.5 start.
It was my intention to back them on this line but having looked again it appears they have changed and they now make Carolina generally 1 point favourties. Looks like i've missed the boat here because I can't back them now after a 3.5 point swing. That will teach me to delay matters and not get on early.
So where to for this weeks bet? I had intended two singles and a small double but we are now left with just one single and that rests with Atlanta. I'd given the Falcons 5.5 points to cover for their trip to Cleveland but it is possible to get them at -3 at evens, and that looks like a bet to me.
Cleveland have started 1-3 with a sole win over Cincinnati.
Altlanta top their division with a 3-1 record which includes a narrow win over current Champions, New Orleans. Looking through all the stats The Browns do not match up closely in any area.
The Falcons also welcome back WR Michael Jenkins for this game and with plenty of rushing talent in Turner and Snelling I can see them covering the 5.5 points I made it, so even money for 3 points should be a walk in the park.
1pt Atlanta -3 Evs (Paddy Power, Bwin) @ Cleveland
It was my intention to back them on this line but having looked again it appears they have changed and they now make Carolina generally 1 point favourties. Looks like i've missed the boat here because I can't back them now after a 3.5 point swing. That will teach me to delay matters and not get on early.
So where to for this weeks bet? I had intended two singles and a small double but we are now left with just one single and that rests with Atlanta. I'd given the Falcons 5.5 points to cover for their trip to Cleveland but it is possible to get them at -3 at evens, and that looks like a bet to me.
Cleveland have started 1-3 with a sole win over Cincinnati.
Altlanta top their division with a 3-1 record which includes a narrow win over current Champions, New Orleans. Looking through all the stats The Browns do not match up closely in any area.
The Falcons also welcome back WR Michael Jenkins for this game and with plenty of rushing talent in Turner and Snelling I can see them covering the 5.5 points I made it, so even money for 3 points should be a walk in the park.
1pt Atlanta -3 Evs (Paddy Power, Bwin) @ Cleveland
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
Week 5 Lines.
I am going to spend today studying some of the week 5 match ups so this is a quick post with my ideas of what the lines should be.
Jacksonville -2.5 @ Buffalo
at Baltimore -6 Denver
at Indianapolis -7.5 kansas
Green Bay -2.5 @ Washington
at Detroit -2 St Louis
at Caroliona -2.5 Chicago
at Cincinnati -4.5 Tampa
Atlanta -5.5 @ Cleveland
at Houston -2.5 New York Giants
New Orleans -6 @ Arizona
at Dallas -6 Tennesse
San Diego -6 @ Oakland
at San Francisco -2.5 Philadelphia
at New York Jets -3 Minnesota
I expect the firms to price up the matches today or tomorrow in which time i'll be ready. Lets googogo.
Jacksonville -2.5 @ Buffalo
at Baltimore -6 Denver
at Indianapolis -7.5 kansas
Green Bay -2.5 @ Washington
at Detroit -2 St Louis
at Caroliona -2.5 Chicago
at Cincinnati -4.5 Tampa
Atlanta -5.5 @ Cleveland
at Houston -2.5 New York Giants
New Orleans -6 @ Arizona
at Dallas -6 Tennesse
San Diego -6 @ Oakland
at San Francisco -2.5 Philadelphia
at New York Jets -3 Minnesota
I expect the firms to price up the matches today or tomorrow in which time i'll be ready. Lets googogo.
Monday, October 4, 2010
A Good No Bet Week.
It's been a pretty good sporting weekend. I've been glued to the Golf this week and managed to come out slightly ahead having backed a few top point scorers.
It's a shame they had to hold it in Wales in October (or Wales at all really) but it did prolong the action and a lazy Monday in front of the TV watching top sporting action is never a bad thing.
I didn't have a bet on the NFL this week, most of my early lines were very similar to that of Vegas and the firms and I really couldn't find anything I liked enough to invest, which on reflection with a few suprise results probably wasn't a bad thing.
Another favourite of mine is the X Factor (possible spoiler alert coming up). This weekend showed the remaining contestants at the Judge's houses awaiting their fate. Of course the final 12 have been fairly common knowledge for some time now but it still makes good TV.
What always makes me laugh when these shows are aired is the constant bitching about the decisions made on people's Facebook status'.
I'm sure Simon Cowell loves the attention as it displays the popularity of the show even now it's in season 7 but I can't understand a lot of it.
I saw one status that claimed to "HATE" Cher Lloyd. Wow, a kid (just turned 17) taking a shot at her dream and within a couple of hour long shows you hate her? Got to imagine that persons life isn't up to much.
I also saw another one that was happy to confirm Cheryl Cole's racisim because she didn't select Gamu.
I happen to believe that Gamu was the best vocalist in the competition, but I also understand her visa had run out and it is likely the show didn't want to risk her when she was very possibly going to get deported. Was she better than Katie, of course she was, it wasn't even close, but lets not get carried away calling Ms Cole a racist, or perhaps that was why she divorced Ashley?
There is to be a twist to this weekend's first live show, and although this is by no means confirmed (the firms are still betting wider than the final 12) my understanding is that there might be another contestant added to the field via a viewers vote. If that is the case I encourage you to vote for Gamu.
My bets on X factor so far have been limited, I wanted to back Gamu, but won't until she is a confirmed runner. I have backed Aiden Grimshaw at 10/1, who I think will improve every week and is very likely to be popular with the female viewers, I've had a bit on Cher Lloyd too at 9/1, she is different to any other act, Simon might realise that he can't keep churning out ballad singers and well racist or not, Cheryl really likes Cher and I get the feeling she might just concentrate most of her efforts on her.
Difficult to say who will be first out at the moment, Katie, who is getting some bad press because Gamu missed out is the early favourite, but I think there might be some mileage in Nicolo Festa going first at 8/1. He's not going to have a strong fan base from Italy and against 2 other very strong contenders in his category might struggle to avoid the bottom two.
More to come this week, I'll be studying the NFL matchups hard this week, I'll be looking into the Baseball playoffs, keeping my ears open for any X Factor news and playing a little Poker.
So until then happy punting.
It's a shame they had to hold it in Wales in October (or Wales at all really) but it did prolong the action and a lazy Monday in front of the TV watching top sporting action is never a bad thing.
I didn't have a bet on the NFL this week, most of my early lines were very similar to that of Vegas and the firms and I really couldn't find anything I liked enough to invest, which on reflection with a few suprise results probably wasn't a bad thing.
Another favourite of mine is the X Factor (possible spoiler alert coming up). This weekend showed the remaining contestants at the Judge's houses awaiting their fate. Of course the final 12 have been fairly common knowledge for some time now but it still makes good TV.
What always makes me laugh when these shows are aired is the constant bitching about the decisions made on people's Facebook status'.
I'm sure Simon Cowell loves the attention as it displays the popularity of the show even now it's in season 7 but I can't understand a lot of it.
I saw one status that claimed to "HATE" Cher Lloyd. Wow, a kid (just turned 17) taking a shot at her dream and within a couple of hour long shows you hate her? Got to imagine that persons life isn't up to much.
I also saw another one that was happy to confirm Cheryl Cole's racisim because she didn't select Gamu.
I happen to believe that Gamu was the best vocalist in the competition, but I also understand her visa had run out and it is likely the show didn't want to risk her when she was very possibly going to get deported. Was she better than Katie, of course she was, it wasn't even close, but lets not get carried away calling Ms Cole a racist, or perhaps that was why she divorced Ashley?
There is to be a twist to this weekend's first live show, and although this is by no means confirmed (the firms are still betting wider than the final 12) my understanding is that there might be another contestant added to the field via a viewers vote. If that is the case I encourage you to vote for Gamu.
My bets on X factor so far have been limited, I wanted to back Gamu, but won't until she is a confirmed runner. I have backed Aiden Grimshaw at 10/1, who I think will improve every week and is very likely to be popular with the female viewers, I've had a bit on Cher Lloyd too at 9/1, she is different to any other act, Simon might realise that he can't keep churning out ballad singers and well racist or not, Cheryl really likes Cher and I get the feeling she might just concentrate most of her efforts on her.
Difficult to say who will be first out at the moment, Katie, who is getting some bad press because Gamu missed out is the early favourite, but I think there might be some mileage in Nicolo Festa going first at 8/1. He's not going to have a strong fan base from Italy and against 2 other very strong contenders in his category might struggle to avoid the bottom two.
More to come this week, I'll be studying the NFL matchups hard this week, I'll be looking into the Baseball playoffs, keeping my ears open for any X Factor news and playing a little Poker.
So until then happy punting.
Monday, September 27, 2010
Tilt Issues.
[ ] Good start.
It wasn't much of a weekend all things considered. So many things went wrong I thought I'd just make a list.
Things that went wrong this week:
1) Gale force winds blew out the satellite connection = No TV
2) Not being able to find a free view of NFL from Spanish IP
3) IP hidden proxy only managed to show the game in extreme slow motion
4) Redskins dismal performance
5) Following Trigg in on a Saints bet
6) Not following Rooks in on a Kansas bet
7) Following Rooks in on a Giants bet
8) Redskins dismal Performance
9) Everybody in my fantasy team
10) Texans
Things that went right this weekend:
......
Thats enough moaning, I'm heading back to London on Wednesday for some more live poker so at least I won't have any satellite issues next weekend.
On to the task at hand, lines for week 4.
New York Jets -3.5 @ Buffalo
at Tennesse -6 Denver
Cincinatti -3.5 @ Cleveland
at New Orleans -10 Carolina
at Pitsburgh - 2.5 Baltimore
at Atlanta -9 San Francisco
Seattle -1.5 @ St Louis
at Green Bay -10 Detroit
Houston -4.5 @ Oakland
Indianapolis -5.5 @ Jacksonville
at Philadelphia -4.5 Washington
at San Diego -7 Arizona
at New York Giants -3 Chicago
at Miami -1.5 New England
These lines represent my early thoughts, obviously it is possible events in tonight's game between the Bears and the Packers could alter things but as soon as the firms have put their lines up i'll post a comparison. I'll be busy travelling on Wednesday so I anticiapte having a bet posted up on Thursday.
And here ends the tilt.
It wasn't much of a weekend all things considered. So many things went wrong I thought I'd just make a list.
Things that went wrong this week:
1) Gale force winds blew out the satellite connection = No TV
2) Not being able to find a free view of NFL from Spanish IP
3) IP hidden proxy only managed to show the game in extreme slow motion
4) Redskins dismal performance
5) Following Trigg in on a Saints bet
6) Not following Rooks in on a Kansas bet
7) Following Rooks in on a Giants bet
8) Redskins dismal Performance
9) Everybody in my fantasy team
10) Texans
Things that went right this weekend:
......
Thats enough moaning, I'm heading back to London on Wednesday for some more live poker so at least I won't have any satellite issues next weekend.
On to the task at hand, lines for week 4.
New York Jets -3.5 @ Buffalo
at Tennesse -6 Denver
Cincinatti -3.5 @ Cleveland
at New Orleans -10 Carolina
at Pitsburgh - 2.5 Baltimore
at Atlanta -9 San Francisco
Seattle -1.5 @ St Louis
at Green Bay -10 Detroit
Houston -4.5 @ Oakland
Indianapolis -5.5 @ Jacksonville
at Philadelphia -4.5 Washington
at San Diego -7 Arizona
at New York Giants -3 Chicago
at Miami -1.5 New England
These lines represent my early thoughts, obviously it is possible events in tonight's game between the Bears and the Packers could alter things but as soon as the firms have put their lines up i'll post a comparison. I'll be busy travelling on Wednesday so I anticiapte having a bet posted up on Thursday.
And here ends the tilt.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Back in Business 2010/11
As is the norm here at Nutty Towers we prefer to let the season get under way and take in a couple of weeks action before wading in.
It's great to have the NFL back as it really does brighten up Sunday nights. I've watched as much of the action as is humanely possible so far and having had two outright bets on Green Bay and Houston, I'm quite excited about their chances with both teams opening up 2-0.
There will obviously be a lot tougher games ahead for Green Bay but I think they have the tools to have a deep post season run and as for Houston well they showed their class when beating their main divisional rivals in week 1 and then showed their steel by fighting back against the Skins from 27-10 down, nicking it in OT.
I have been busy this week so didn't get a chance to compile my lines before seeing what was on offer so the exercise seems pointless for week 3. I do intend to get them done on Monday's again as we did last year.
So on to this weeks action and I am going to be backing Donovan McNabb to get the job done in St Louis. Mcnabb was a high profile trade this off season leaving Philadelphia for their divisional rivals Washington and they look like a decent outfit.
They opened with a low scoring victory against Dallas in week 1 and were involved in a titanic battle with Houston in week 2 where both Quarterbacks threw for over 400 yards.
If Mcnabb finds any form similar to that they should tear apart a weak St Louis side. St Louis have started 0-2 and having lost to Oakland in week 2 it really does not look good for the Rams.
Moss, Galloway, Cooley and Davis could all put up a lot of yardage this weekend.
St Louis have lost both their games to teams who have been well beaten in their other matchups and I think this could be a stroll in the park for The Skins, I wouldn't be suprised if the score was something in the region of 31-14.
So with that in mind the bet this week is with Paddy Power where they give the Skins only 3 points to cover at 10/11.
Recommendation: 2pts Washington Redskins -3 (St Louis) 10/11
It's great to have the NFL back as it really does brighten up Sunday nights. I've watched as much of the action as is humanely possible so far and having had two outright bets on Green Bay and Houston, I'm quite excited about their chances with both teams opening up 2-0.
There will obviously be a lot tougher games ahead for Green Bay but I think they have the tools to have a deep post season run and as for Houston well they showed their class when beating their main divisional rivals in week 1 and then showed their steel by fighting back against the Skins from 27-10 down, nicking it in OT.
I have been busy this week so didn't get a chance to compile my lines before seeing what was on offer so the exercise seems pointless for week 3. I do intend to get them done on Monday's again as we did last year.
So on to this weeks action and I am going to be backing Donovan McNabb to get the job done in St Louis. Mcnabb was a high profile trade this off season leaving Philadelphia for their divisional rivals Washington and they look like a decent outfit.
They opened with a low scoring victory against Dallas in week 1 and were involved in a titanic battle with Houston in week 2 where both Quarterbacks threw for over 400 yards.
If Mcnabb finds any form similar to that they should tear apart a weak St Louis side. St Louis have started 0-2 and having lost to Oakland in week 2 it really does not look good for the Rams.
Moss, Galloway, Cooley and Davis could all put up a lot of yardage this weekend.
St Louis have lost both their games to teams who have been well beaten in their other matchups and I think this could be a stroll in the park for The Skins, I wouldn't be suprised if the score was something in the region of 31-14.
So with that in mind the bet this week is with Paddy Power where they give the Skins only 3 points to cover at 10/11.
Recommendation: 2pts Washington Redskins -3 (St Louis) 10/11
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