The blog will return in late August for the start of the NFL season. In the interim I am in training and will be running a half marathon in October in support of the charity Mencap.
It will be the first of many leading up to an intended marathon in New York in 2011. Please support both me and Mencap by donating whatever you can at my just giving page.
http://justgiving.co.uk/NuttyNick
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Monday, February 15, 2010
Fan Feedback
It looks like I've picked up a fan by the name of Jersey Dan.
I thought I'd start a post for the first time with a little rhyme. In fact that's two now so I'm going to stop.
I received a comment on my "Season ROI" post from a guy calling himself Jersey Dan. While writing a blog that is open to everyone I of course leave myself open to criticism and that's fine. Nobody could top the stick I received when I ventured to Flushy's house a while back anyway.
However, while I accept and and even welcome views from others what I will not accept is accusations that are not true. Jersey Dan claims that I have been changing my picks during game time. Now this is absurd. As many of you know - my readers basically consist of a few friends and ex-colleagues - when I have posted a bet I have done so well before game time and advertised the fact via Facebook and Twitter and on occasions via email. I have placed the bets myself and I know some of you have followed me in on occasion, so editing the post would not only be pointless but it would be highlighted. In fact on a few occasions when I have discussed my bets and thoughts on the the NFL thread on www.blondepoker.com nobody has at any stage thought I have changed my picks.
Jersey Dan doesn't explain why he thinks I have changed my picks, and offers no evidence. The only thing I know about him is that he opened a twitter account for the sole purpose of replying to one of my tweets. Dan claims that my blog is now a place where he and his buddies like to go to have a laugh. I doubt this, I really do, can you see someone who sets up a blog and a twitter account just to make false accusations having any buddies? No, neither do I.
I appreciate your comments Dan and I continue to welcome them, but please support them with evidence in the future or why not show off your ability in finding winners by explaining why you agree/disagree with my thoughts in the comments section below each post.
18.54% ROI is nothing to crow about whatsoever, especially having given 7 consecutive winning picks at the start of the season. I will continue to blog for if nothing else a way to record my profit and loss and I am not going to try and kid myself in the process.
I thought I'd start a post for the first time with a little rhyme. In fact that's two now so I'm going to stop.
I received a comment on my "Season ROI" post from a guy calling himself Jersey Dan. While writing a blog that is open to everyone I of course leave myself open to criticism and that's fine. Nobody could top the stick I received when I ventured to Flushy's house a while back anyway.
However, while I accept and and even welcome views from others what I will not accept is accusations that are not true. Jersey Dan claims that I have been changing my picks during game time. Now this is absurd. As many of you know - my readers basically consist of a few friends and ex-colleagues - when I have posted a bet I have done so well before game time and advertised the fact via Facebook and Twitter and on occasions via email. I have placed the bets myself and I know some of you have followed me in on occasion, so editing the post would not only be pointless but it would be highlighted. In fact on a few occasions when I have discussed my bets and thoughts on the the NFL thread on www.blondepoker.com nobody has at any stage thought I have changed my picks.
Jersey Dan doesn't explain why he thinks I have changed my picks, and offers no evidence. The only thing I know about him is that he opened a twitter account for the sole purpose of replying to one of my tweets. Dan claims that my blog is now a place where he and his buddies like to go to have a laugh. I doubt this, I really do, can you see someone who sets up a blog and a twitter account just to make false accusations having any buddies? No, neither do I.
I appreciate your comments Dan and I continue to welcome them, but please support them with evidence in the future or why not show off your ability in finding winners by explaining why you agree/disagree with my thoughts in the comments section below each post.
18.54% ROI is nothing to crow about whatsoever, especially having given 7 consecutive winning picks at the start of the season. I will continue to blog for if nothing else a way to record my profit and loss and I am not going to try and kid myself in the process.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Season ROI
So that's it, no more football for six months.
The Superbowl was probably a little disappointing in many people's eyes because so much was expected. We never saw the shootout spectacle that we all anticipated but I'm sure the people of New Orleans won't care one little bit.
It seems ironic really after all the talk about Peyton Manning being the best of all time that it was he that was picked off for the decisive play.
Drew Brees quite rightly won the MVP award but it could have been so different. Our 25/1 tip (tipped up in the Racing Post at 20/1) started very well. Joseph Addai rushed for 77 yards and 1 touchdown and an Indianapolis win may well have seen him take the award.
The next action us NFL fans have is the draft and I may well draw up some ideas of what each team will be looking for nearer the time. Before that though we do have the start of Major League Baseball and I will post a preview of the season with some ante-post bets as we prepare to tackle the bookies once again. At the moment only World Series prices are available so when the firms publish the rest of their markets I will be ready to pounce.
So how did we do betting wise? I was disappointed with our regular season figure of 20.6% ROI and we didn't improve in the post season.
We had a nice touch when The Jets beat The Chargers but had Green Bay beaten Arizona things would have been so different. Our Post Season figures are even less appealing returning 18%.
When toting up all bets for both the regular and post seasons our ROI stands at 18.54%.
It is a profit, of course - but we wouldn't expect anything less. Lets hope the new MLB season brings richer rewards. There is also a new season of Britain's Got Talent on the horizon so hopefully we can follow up on last years 25/1 success.
The Superbowl was probably a little disappointing in many people's eyes because so much was expected. We never saw the shootout spectacle that we all anticipated but I'm sure the people of New Orleans won't care one little bit.
It seems ironic really after all the talk about Peyton Manning being the best of all time that it was he that was picked off for the decisive play.
Drew Brees quite rightly won the MVP award but it could have been so different. Our 25/1 tip (tipped up in the Racing Post at 20/1) started very well. Joseph Addai rushed for 77 yards and 1 touchdown and an Indianapolis win may well have seen him take the award.
The next action us NFL fans have is the draft and I may well draw up some ideas of what each team will be looking for nearer the time. Before that though we do have the start of Major League Baseball and I will post a preview of the season with some ante-post bets as we prepare to tackle the bookies once again. At the moment only World Series prices are available so when the firms publish the rest of their markets I will be ready to pounce.
So how did we do betting wise? I was disappointed with our regular season figure of 20.6% ROI and we didn't improve in the post season.
We had a nice touch when The Jets beat The Chargers but had Green Bay beaten Arizona things would have been so different. Our Post Season figures are even less appealing returning 18%.
When toting up all bets for both the regular and post seasons our ROI stands at 18.54%.
It is a profit, of course - but we wouldn't expect anything less. Lets hope the new MLB season brings richer rewards. There is also a new season of Britain's Got Talent on the horizon so hopefully we can follow up on last years 25/1 success.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Superbowl!
This is a long overdue post, but I have been fairly busy and sometimes it is difficult to find the time to write but we do have the Greatest Show on Earth coming up and a few interest bets at least need placing.
I said I expected the line on New Orleans to shorten and it has in the main, pretty much all firms go +4.5 from +5.5. I won't be on it though, I can see the Saints scoring regularly but I can't see them stopping Peyton Manning who in my opinion will score at will. The Saints will put up some numbers too and that's why my first interest bet will be on the overs. The line currently is 56.6 although ToteSport go 55.5 so we'll shop there.
0.5pt Total points over 55.5 @ 10/11 ToteSport.
It's far more fun chasing the overs, at least we can hope for the game it promises to be. My next bets surround the MVP market. Manning is odds on for this and perhaps rightly so, but we can't for one minute expect that to be a value bet. Instead I am going to back two running backs at big prices. Again, these are small interest bets so no need to go mad.
First up is Reggie Bush, who had an incredible individual performance against Arizona, anything similar and he will win the award. The Saints use him regularly on all downs and he also plays a big part on Special Teams so he has every chance. Paddy Power are a stand out best price 20/1.
The other running back we will be investing in is Joseph Addai, he is the main man at Indianapolis and will also be used for receiving in the red zone. A couple of touchdowns from him could seal the award. Addai is as short as 7/1 in a place and the Magic Sign make him 9/1 but for reasons best known to themselves Paddy Power make him 25/1. Take it before they wake up from their stupor.
0.5pt Joseph Addai 25/1 MVP
0.5pt Reggie Bush 20/1 MVP both Paddy Power.
Apologies for the short post, but I am currently 4 tabling 90 man sngs on Stars. Enjoy the game, it really should be a cracker. I'll have a review up sometime next week which will include a season ROI discussion.
I said I expected the line on New Orleans to shorten and it has in the main, pretty much all firms go +4.5 from +5.5. I won't be on it though, I can see the Saints scoring regularly but I can't see them stopping Peyton Manning who in my opinion will score at will. The Saints will put up some numbers too and that's why my first interest bet will be on the overs. The line currently is 56.6 although ToteSport go 55.5 so we'll shop there.
0.5pt Total points over 55.5 @ 10/11 ToteSport.
It's far more fun chasing the overs, at least we can hope for the game it promises to be. My next bets surround the MVP market. Manning is odds on for this and perhaps rightly so, but we can't for one minute expect that to be a value bet. Instead I am going to back two running backs at big prices. Again, these are small interest bets so no need to go mad.
First up is Reggie Bush, who had an incredible individual performance against Arizona, anything similar and he will win the award. The Saints use him regularly on all downs and he also plays a big part on Special Teams so he has every chance. Paddy Power are a stand out best price 20/1.
The other running back we will be investing in is Joseph Addai, he is the main man at Indianapolis and will also be used for receiving in the red zone. A couple of touchdowns from him could seal the award. Addai is as short as 7/1 in a place and the Magic Sign make him 9/1 but for reasons best known to themselves Paddy Power make him 25/1. Take it before they wake up from their stupor.
0.5pt Joseph Addai 25/1 MVP
0.5pt Reggie Bush 20/1 MVP both Paddy Power.
Apologies for the short post, but I am currently 4 tabling 90 man sngs on Stars. Enjoy the game, it really should be a cracker. I'll have a review up sometime next week which will include a season ROI discussion.
Monday, January 25, 2010
No Fairytale Ending For Favre.
Adrian Peterson rushed for over 100 yards for the first time in 9 matches, he also added 3 touchdowns but it was the fumbles that cost the Vikings a trip to South Florida and Superbowl XLIV.
How Brett Favre still manages to perform to the level that he does at 40 is a testament in it self. Favre was hit regularly by the Saint's defense but he continued to chase the fairytale ending that all neutrals longed for.
It was not to be as fumble after fumble stifled the Vikings progress allowing an overtime victory for New Orleans who won their first Conference title and head to the Superbowl for the first time in franchise history.
And what a game it promises to be in Miami, where the number one seed in the NFC will take on the number one seed in the AFC after Peyton Manning ended the hopes of all Jets fans.
New York gave it their all and Sanchez performed better than anyone anticipated throwing for 257 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Unfortunately this ended the hopes of Nutty Sports in the quest for another winner. It was however a joy to watch Peyton Manning out fox the Jets. As the game progressed it was clear to see that Manning had found the formula to unlock the number one D-Line in the NFL.
Arguments could be made for Peyton Manning being the greatest of all time and if he goes on to win his 2nd World Championship ring in Miami then who would oppose such thoughts?
We have 2 weeks until the big show and there will be plenty of promise as the commentators bill this as the battle of the quarterbacks.
So how do I see this playing out? The Colts have to be favourites and rightly so. Their much underrated D-Line has so much pace they can stop anyone and that includes the very talented Drew Brees.
Early indications suggest that the UK firms are making Indianapolis 5.5 point favourites but that might be a little too high. Make no mistake New Orleans will put up some numbers. In my mind I had The Colts at around 3.5-4 point favourites. I am not recommending anything at such an early stage but the Manning hype is in overdrive at the moment and that may result in the firms trimming that line nearer the off time.
I will be updating the blog during the week and will discuss many different individual match ups that we can look forward to in Miami. In the meantime enjoy the build up it's going to be a great show!
How Brett Favre still manages to perform to the level that he does at 40 is a testament in it self. Favre was hit regularly by the Saint's defense but he continued to chase the fairytale ending that all neutrals longed for.
It was not to be as fumble after fumble stifled the Vikings progress allowing an overtime victory for New Orleans who won their first Conference title and head to the Superbowl for the first time in franchise history.
And what a game it promises to be in Miami, where the number one seed in the NFC will take on the number one seed in the AFC after Peyton Manning ended the hopes of all Jets fans.
New York gave it their all and Sanchez performed better than anyone anticipated throwing for 257 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Unfortunately this ended the hopes of Nutty Sports in the quest for another winner. It was however a joy to watch Peyton Manning out fox the Jets. As the game progressed it was clear to see that Manning had found the formula to unlock the number one D-Line in the NFL.
Arguments could be made for Peyton Manning being the greatest of all time and if he goes on to win his 2nd World Championship ring in Miami then who would oppose such thoughts?
We have 2 weeks until the big show and there will be plenty of promise as the commentators bill this as the battle of the quarterbacks.
So how do I see this playing out? The Colts have to be favourites and rightly so. Their much underrated D-Line has so much pace they can stop anyone and that includes the very talented Drew Brees.
Early indications suggest that the UK firms are making Indianapolis 5.5 point favourites but that might be a little too high. Make no mistake New Orleans will put up some numbers. In my mind I had The Colts at around 3.5-4 point favourites. I am not recommending anything at such an early stage but the Manning hype is in overdrive at the moment and that may result in the firms trimming that line nearer the off time.
I will be updating the blog during the week and will discuss many different individual match ups that we can look forward to in Miami. In the meantime enjoy the build up it's going to be a great show!
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Something A Bit Different.
I've decided to leave the match up between Minnesota and New Orleans alone. I won't be having any sort of bet in this game because I think anything is possible. I will just enjoy what I hope will be a spectacle.
As for the match up between Indianapolis and New York Jets I have something a bit different. I am going to go short on the points. It is possible to get under 40.5 points with William Hill and Totesport.
My initial line was as low as 36.5 so I have studied the stats and how the teams match up. Lets start with the basics. The Colts are ranked no.2 in the NFL for pass offense averaging 26.0 points per game. The Jets are ranked no.1 in the NFL for pass defense conceding an average of 14.8 per game. (for the record Colts concede an average of 19.2 and Jets score 21.8).
So what happens when the best passing offense meets the best passing defense? Hard to say, so lets break it down some more. The Colts have scored an average of 23.87 points at home during the regular season (conceding 16.66).
The Jets have scored an average of 23.3 points per game on the road, slightly more than their overall average (conceding 15.5).
An interesting point here is that the Colts have only played 2 teams that finished with a winning record and the Jets have only faced one. I think this game could be a very low scoring affair.
This game is going to be tight. I think it obvious also that the Colts will pass the ball and the Jets will run the ball. Therefore each team's defensive coordinators will be working on the respective defensive areas.
It might not be exciting going short on total points but it should prove profitable.
1pt under 40.5 total points Jets @ Colts 10/11 Will Hills & Totesport.
As for the match up between Indianapolis and New York Jets I have something a bit different. I am going to go short on the points. It is possible to get under 40.5 points with William Hill and Totesport.
My initial line was as low as 36.5 so I have studied the stats and how the teams match up. Lets start with the basics. The Colts are ranked no.2 in the NFL for pass offense averaging 26.0 points per game. The Jets are ranked no.1 in the NFL for pass defense conceding an average of 14.8 per game. (for the record Colts concede an average of 19.2 and Jets score 21.8).
So what happens when the best passing offense meets the best passing defense? Hard to say, so lets break it down some more. The Colts have scored an average of 23.87 points at home during the regular season (conceding 16.66).
The Jets have scored an average of 23.3 points per game on the road, slightly more than their overall average (conceding 15.5).
An interesting point here is that the Colts have only played 2 teams that finished with a winning record and the Jets have only faced one. I think this game could be a very low scoring affair.
This game is going to be tight. I think it obvious also that the Colts will pass the ball and the Jets will run the ball. Therefore each team's defensive coordinators will be working on the respective defensive areas.
It might not be exciting going short on total points but it should prove profitable.
1pt under 40.5 total points Jets @ Colts 10/11 Will Hills & Totesport.
Monday, January 18, 2010
Conference Championship Lines.
We lost Dallas this weekend after they were mauled in the Dome by The Vikings. Dallas had a lot of early possession but could not convert that into points. The NFC Championship game will now be contested between the number 1 and 2 seeds as Minnesota travel to New Orleans.
The story was slightly different in the last of the divisional matches as The New York Jets D-Line won the day by limiting San Diego to just 2 scores. We collected on both bets and that puts us in profit for the post season.
The Jets now travel to Indianapolis where they won against a weakened side a few weeks ago giving them the opportunity to make a charge at the play offs.
I worry about Mark Sanchez though. He found his tightend, Dustin Keller, for a touchdown in the 4th quarter last night but he does not inspire confidence. San Diego were able to defend well against New York early on because they could concentrate on their running game knowing it unlikely Sanchez will find big plays down the field. Indy will do the same and The Jets D-Line will be working overtime trying to Stop Manning and Co.
Both games have a lot of potential as you would expect at this stage of the season. I have compiled my lines below.
Sunday 24th 8pm.
at Indianapolis -7 New York Jets
Sunday 24th 11.30pm.
at New Orleans -6 Minnesota
As we only have 2 matches it is obviously less likely that we will find a bet so I thought I'd compile my ideas on the total points which I have added below.
at Indianapolis New York Jets 36.5
at New Orleans Minnesota 51.5
I will also be having a good look through all other markets on offer during the week, hopefully something worth backing will rear it's head.
The story was slightly different in the last of the divisional matches as The New York Jets D-Line won the day by limiting San Diego to just 2 scores. We collected on both bets and that puts us in profit for the post season.
The Jets now travel to Indianapolis where they won against a weakened side a few weeks ago giving them the opportunity to make a charge at the play offs.
I worry about Mark Sanchez though. He found his tightend, Dustin Keller, for a touchdown in the 4th quarter last night but he does not inspire confidence. San Diego were able to defend well against New York early on because they could concentrate on their running game knowing it unlikely Sanchez will find big plays down the field. Indy will do the same and The Jets D-Line will be working overtime trying to Stop Manning and Co.
Both games have a lot of potential as you would expect at this stage of the season. I have compiled my lines below.
Sunday 24th 8pm.
at Indianapolis -7 New York Jets
Sunday 24th 11.30pm.
at New Orleans -6 Minnesota
As we only have 2 matches it is obviously less likely that we will find a bet so I thought I'd compile my ideas on the total points which I have added below.
at Indianapolis New York Jets 36.5
at New Orleans Minnesota 51.5
I will also be having a good look through all other markets on offer during the week, hopefully something worth backing will rear it's head.
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