Nick Sharratt has posted the Vegas Lines for week 5 as a comment on my earlier post, but just for clarification and discussion points I've added it below with my lines in brackets;


Minnesota - 10 @ St Louis (10.5)
Dallas -7 @ Kansas City (9.5)
at Carolina -4 Washington (3.5)
at Philadelphia - 14 Tampa Bay (7.5)
at New York Giants -14.5 Oakland (11.5)
at Buffalo -6 Cleveland (6)
at Baltomore -7.5 Cincinati (5.5)
Pitsburgh -9.5 @ Detroit (9.5)
at San Francisco -2.5 Atlanta (3.5)
New England -3.5 @ Denver (1.5)
at Arizona -5.5 Houston (+2.5)
Indianapolis -3.5 @ Tennesse (5.5)
New York Jets -1.5 @ Miami (3.5)

No lines available on Jacksonville @ Seattle as yet.

So what are the differences? As I mentioned earlier I expected Vegas to give Denver a bigger start and have done so with 2 points more. There are a few other differences, for Instance Vegas make New York Giants 14.5 point favourites which is 3 points more than I did. Two things to consider here are that Eli Manning bruised his foot on Sunday and is undergoing a scan and I'd want to know he was 100% fit to play first. However on the flip side Oakland appear to be absolutly dreadful this year so arguements could be made either way.

The biggest difference is an 8 point swing on the Houston/Arizona game. Before I steam in I will keep my mind open, after all I could be wrong in my line. I have a soft spot for the Texans and have backed them for the Superbowl this year. I felt they finished really strongly last season and have a number of top class players. Matt Schaub is a solid QB, Steve Slaton scored twice on Sunday and if he can stop the fumbles really could be a quality RB. I also rate Andre Johnson as a reciever. So why do Vegas think the Cardinals are 5.5 points better?

For starters there will always be a feeling that home advantage counts. Houston are 1-0 on the road beating Tennesse 34-31. It's difficult to tell how good a win this was at the moment because The Titans are 0-4 for the season and appear to be struggling, yet they were no.1 seeds in their conferance last season. The Cardinals had a bye week in week 4 and are 1-2 for the season losing both their home games (San Francisco and Indianapolis). Their sole win coming in Jacksonville. The Cards are capable of putting points on the board (as are the Texans) with Kurt Warner still plying his trade very well and obviously Larry Fitzgerald is one of the top recievers. I do have concerns over their ability to run the ball - they appear to be using Tim Hightower as their main Running Back and as good as he is he wouldn't be my no.1 choice.
There is too much uncertainity in this match for a bet, although I will be looking at the total points market when it's available because this one could well be a high scoring game.

I made Indianapolis 5.5 points favourites and Vegas have gone 3.5. The colts are 4-0 and The Titans are 0-4 so this could well be a bet. I know it's only a 2 point swing, but with Peyton Manning in form it could be a rout. I was concerned about the Colts with the changes they made on their coaching staff but this appears not to have affected them at all. If this game was in Indianapolis I'm sure the line would be nearer 7.5. So does the Titans home advantage count that much?
The game is next Monday and so far only Corals and Bet365 have a line (although both firms just copy Vegas) so I will wait a day or two before making a decision.

Another team who had a bye week are Philadelphia. They face Tampa this weekend and Vegas differs from me on this game by 6 points giving The Buccanners a 14 point start. That may be a little big but having seen how Tampa conceded 16 points in the 3rd quarter against a weak Washington offense on Sunday wouldn't have me backing them again in a hurry. It may be my line was a bit low but time will tell as the markets take shape through the week.

I'd expect a post with my weekly bet(s) might not be so early this week but I'm sure I'll have deciphered something by Thursday....