8 & 2.

Miami could not take advantage of their 1st half dominance and buckled somewhat in the 2nd half gifting Buffalo a 31-14 win.

It's never nice to get beat by the bookies, but I think the best lesson to learn here is to avoid teams that are inconsistent. Miami have at times this season played quite brilliant football but on the flip side they have been beaten on a few occasions when they really should have won. It's not a good trait and all in all I think Miami have a lot more to do to really be competitive.

There is a big match up tonight where New England travel to New Orleans. I think New England will win this game and the odds against offered on the money line could well recover yesterday's losses. The Saints have not played a team anywhere near the quality of The Patriots yet and I think their defense could buckle under the pressure that Tom Brady and his O-Line will bring.

Looking at my fantasy team match up this week it is very close. I took Percy Harvin in to the team from the bench and he scored well. As it stands at the moment I am leading 81-67. I have Saints Kicker John Carney to play and my opponent has Saints TE Jeremy Shockey along with The Saints Special Teams/Defense. It is going to be very tight.

I've compiled my week 13 lines (below) but I am mindful that a few important Quarterbacks could be missing next week which would have an affect on the games. Big Ben Roethlisberger missed the Steelers game last night with concussion and his availability will need to be monitored. Like wise with Atlanta's Matt Ryan who was taken off last night. Matthew Stafford of Detroit battled through Thursday's match up with Green Bay and the extra time he gets this week might help but his progress will still need monitoring.

New York Jets +2.5 @ Buffalo
at Chicago -5.5 St Louis
New England -7.5 @ Miami
Philadelphia -3 @ Atlanta
New Orleans -7.5 @ Washington
at Indianapolis -3.5 Tennessee
at Pittsburgh -5.5 Oakland
Denver -5.5 @ Kansas City
at Carolina -5 Tampa Bay
Houston -2.5 @ Jacksonville
at Cincinnati -9 Detroit
San Diego -10.5 at Cleveland
at New York Giants -1.5 Dallas
San Francisco -2.5 @ Seattle
Minnesota -5.5 @ Arizona
at Green Bay -2.5 Baltimore

I will compare the Vegas lines tomorrow as always.

Just a note on the X Factor as we finally saw the end of Lloyd. We are at the semi-final stage now and Joe is odds on favourite. Have I been wrong all along? I really think he would be a weak winner. He has no personality, he cannot dance and his Geordie accent is apparent when he sings. Surely sense will prevail. I would lay him at the price if I hadn't already got certain positions. It looks to me that Simon will lose one of his acts this coming week. I hope he realises that Olly is his best chance of winning because I believe he wants Danyl to win. It seems to be that Danyl is getting the extra effort and best song choices but if he is serious about winning the show then he must concentrate on Olly.

Thanksgiving, An Update and X Factor Songs.

A night of Thanksgiving football is always an added bonus but quite a few mistakes were made, for starters I've made a hash of my fantasy team.

I have a number of fantasy teams this season but perhaps the best and most competitive one is with ESPN, where each "coach" starts the season by rating players before the "draft". Then each team receives a player in turn based on their ratings until they have a squad. We have 2 divisions and each week your team is matched up with another and a victory handed to the team that scores the most points. Trades between teams are allowed when they can be agreed and it is also possible to pick spare players up that aren't attached to other teams.

I started badly, losing 5 of my first 6 games. I then knuckled down and spent some time studying the format (should have done that at the out set) and I now have a 6 & 5 record having won my last 5 games. In my league there are 4 teams now tied at the top at 6 & 5. My squad is pasted below.

QB	Eli Manning, NYG QB P
RB	Ryan Grant, GB RB P
RB	Jason Snelling, Atl RB
RB/WR	Percy Harvin, Min WR
WR	Hines Ward, Pit WR
WR	Derrick Mason, Bal WR
TE	Kellen Winslow, TB TE P
D/ST	Cowboys D/ST, Dal D/ST
K	John Carney, NO K
BENCH
SLOT	PLAYER, TEAM POS
Bench	Peyton Manning, Ind QB P
Bench	Reggie Bush, NO RB Q
Bench	Santonio Holmes, Pit WR
Bench	Steve Slaton, Hou RB Q
Bench	Correll Buckhalter, Den RB
Bench	Visanthe Shiancoe, Min TE
Bench	Robert Meachem, NO WR

There are 2 weeks left before the "playoffs" and only 4 teams will progress. This week and next I am up against 2 teams that are also tied for 1st on 6 & 5 so if I win them both I am in the play offs.

The key to my team this week is Michael Turner. I really need him to remain injured and not play. This will allow Jason Snelling (who I picked up for free last week) to be Atlanta's main running back against Tampa - where he is likely to score heavily against a bad rush defense.

Last night Ryan Grant (Green Bay RB) did ok scoring 10 points and I had Dallas as my Special Teams/Defense. They ended on 9 points but were up to 14 before the Oakland drive that they converted into a touchdown. I elected to play Eli Manning last night after quite some agonising and that was a big mistake. Leaving Peyton on the bench last week paid dividends but that was because Eli was up against Atlanta who have a poor pass defense - Denver do not. I was also not happy to see the rookie Knowshon Moreno play so well last night for The Broncos as my opponent has him in his squad. At this stage of the game I will need some luck to win, which after a really good recent effort is disappointing.

Back to the punting and I have decided to add Dallas Cowboys to my Superbowl portfolio. I have backed them at 26/1 on Betfair. Granted they do have a tough schedule, but so do New York and I think they are a stronger side. If Miles Austin continues in the form he showed last night they really should win the NFC East and with a little luck in the Post Season could go close which will hopefully leave me in a good trading position.

I have also traded out of my bet on George Hamilton. I laid him on the exchange at 3.95 locking in a profit no matter what. I haven't really been watching the show so it's best to get out of any positions. Looking at the market it does appear for reasons I do not know that Gino DAcampo is a shoe in.

Looking ahead to X Factor this week where the remaining acts will sing two songs, one by Elton John and one by Take That. I am hoping that Olly can get back on track this week as he really should be able to nail a couple of good performances. He has eased in the market somewhat but that is to be expected after appearing in the bottom two. This Saturday will be crucial to our bet.

I have managed to get my hands on the song choices early. I might well write a preview with my thoughts tomorrow but for the time being here they are:

Stacey
Something Abut The Way You Look Tonight - Elton John

Rule The World - Take That

Joe
Sorry Seems To Be The Hardest Word - Elton John

Could It Be Magic- Take That

Lloyd
I'm Still Standing - Elton John

Million Love Songs - Take That

Danyl
Your Song - Elton John

Relight My Fire - Take That

Olly
Saturday Nights Alright For Fighting - Elton John

Love Ain't Here Anymore- Take That

Week 12 Bet.

For our week 12 bet we head to New York state. It's another divisional match up with one team on the ascendancy and the other in turmoil.

Buffalo have appointed defensive coach Perry Fewell on an interim basis as The Bills search for a new coach for next season after the sacking of Dick Jauron. Franchise owner Ralph Wilson has said he is prepared to completely re-vamp the team for the 2010 season and that nobody's place is secured. It very much looks like Buffalo have resigned themselves to also rans for this campaign and will concentrate on repairing the damage in an attempt to be competitive for next season.

Miami on the other hand had a great win last Thursday (giving them plenty of rest before Sunday's game) against a strong Carolina team. They have put themselves right bang in the race for an AFC Wildcard spot.

Ricky Williams rushed for 119 yards and scored 3 touchdowns against the Panthers last week and this matchup really should be about the rush game. Miami are ranked 4th in the NFL with an average of 156 rush yards per game whereas Buffalo are ranked 31st on rush defense conceding an average of 165.9 yards per game.

Back in week 4 Miami beat Buffalo 38-10 where The Dolphins racked up 250 yards rushing alone (Buffalo managed only 206 total offensive yards).

Miami will be playing hard knowing a win will give them every chance of a play off spot. The Fins have had a very tough schedule this term so it is credit to Tony Sparano and his men that they are still in the hunt.

I really expect Miami to be far too strong for Buffalo and with only 3 points to cover think they look like a strong bet.

1pt Miami -3 @ 4/5 generally.

Back To Winning Ways.

Tennessee won the ball game last night taking Nutty Sports to 8 & 1 for the season. An extra bonus for any of you that backed them to win the match at odds against. In the end it was a 53 yard field goal that took it down 20-17 in yet another tight divisional match up.

Leading up to Thanksgiving you would expect the firms to be spot on with their handicap lines, they have after all had 11 regular season game weeks to get it right. This means we will likely have to search longer and harder for any edge or value and it's times like this where I will sometimes look to the money line for a bet.

I have posted the Vegas lines for week 12 below with as always my lines in brackets.

Green Bay -10 (-6.5) @ Detroit
at Dallas -13.5 (-9) Oakland
New York Giants -6.5 (-4.5) @ Denver
Miami -3 (-2.5) @ Buffalo
at New York Jets -3 (-3) Carolina
at Cincinnati -14 (-10.5) Cleveland
Indianapolis -3 (-3) @ Houston
at Atlanta -12 (-9.5) Tampa Bay
at Philadelphia -9 (-7.5) Washington
Seattle -3 (-2.5) @ St Louis
at San Diego -13.5 (9.5) Kansas
at San Francisco -3 (-2.5) Jacksonville
at Minnesota -10.5 (9.5) Chicago
at Tennessee -1 (-3) Arizona
at Baltimore -2.5 (-3) Pittsburgh
at New Orleans -3 (-3.5) New England

With 3 games on Thursday I will try and get any potential bet up by Wednesday evening. Taking a quick glance at the lines the first two games look interesting to me. Oakland managed a good win against Cincinnati last weekend whereas Dallas were awful against Washington winning 7-6. Just off the bat it appears that 13.5 points might be a lot for The Cowboys to overcome. By the same token Detroit fought back well to win 38-37 on Sunday (albeit) against Cleveland, Matthew Stafford put up some great numbers and Green Bay might find it difficult to cover a 10 point line especially considering their injury list is mounting up.

I'll be studying all the match ups in great detail so keep an eye out for a bet in the next 24 hours or so.

A Quick Round Up With Week 12 Lines.

Lets start with the X Factor and although it was nice to finally get rid of Jedward it was of some concern to find Olly in the bottom two.

It may be a result of a number of factors. Firstly, Joe's performance may well have taken some of Olly's votes. Secondly, his performance was more up beat as per the judges request but perhaps his fans didn't like it and would vote again when he returns to what he is good at. Thirdly, it may just be that fans didn't vote for him expecting him to be safe. This happens quite a bit, they may have placed their votes on acts they felt were more vulnerable in an attempt to axe the Twins. I am sure they will vote in their droves next week to ensure it doesn't happen again.

A quick post with a bet on Saturday has already reaped dividends. George Hamilton is back in base camp and all the 8/1 has gone. In fact he is the favourite now and can be laid at less than 7/2 on Betfair (at time of going to press). He is best price 10/3 with the firms now, so we are in good shape.

We are waiting on Tennessee tonight to complete the weekend's punting and I have everything crossed. I have compiled my lines for Week 12, we have 3 games on Thursday this week due to Thanksgiving and the season is really hotting up.

Thursday,

Green Bay -6.5 @ Detroit
at Dallas -9 Oakland
New York Giants -4.5 @ Denver

Sunday,

Miami -2.5 @ Buffalo
at New York Jets -3 Carolina
at Cincinnati -9.5 Cleveland
Indianapolis -3 @ Houston
at Atlanta -9.5 Tampa Bay
at Philadelphia -7.5 Washington
Seattle -3 @ St Louis
at San Diego -9.5 Kansas
at San Francisco -2.5 Jacksonville
at Minnesota -9.5 Chicago
at Tennessee -3 Arizona
at Baltimore -2.5 Pittsburgh

Monday

at New Orleans -3.5 New England

The Monday night game should be a cracker. There are again quite a few divisional match ups that could be tight. I'll be having a look at all the games throughout the week, but for the time being, Go Titans!

X Factor - Week 7 Elimination.

I'm glad they referred to it as George Michael week on the show because Wham week would have been a disaster.

As it was I am starting to think that this format has run it's course, I'm not finding it nearly as entertaining as last year and I think it will need to be changed or re-vamped to continue with as much popularity in future seasons.

On to the performances and I elected not to trade the markets this week. In fact I think it easier in the early weeks because as we near the business end it really should go down to form. Votes are not spread so thinly as the stronger acts start to pick up the spare votes and it's for that reason the bottom two this week really should be Lloyd and Jedward with Danyl being the only other possibility.

Lloyd sang Faith and it may well have been his best performance. However after so many weeks coaching acts really should be getting better. Cheryl decided to give him a new look having seen the difference it made for Danyl but I think that was obvious to the viewers. Louis Walsh managed to show his hypocritical side again when commenting on Lloyd's performance. "This is a singing contest, and there are better singers than you." How can we take that comment seriously when he has been hyping his act as entertaining? If Simon does change the format he really should replace Louis, he is of no value whatsoever.

Stacey had another good song choice and although shaky at the start she picked it up. I actually thought she sounded a bit nasal at times last night but she is a sure fire finalist.

Jedward have also improved their vocals, practising everyday with professional coaching would improve anybody. The rap was awful, they were completely out of time.

Danyl had a big song, but I didn't care for the performance very much. I actually found it quite flat and would have preferred a more energetic routine. He is in my opinion the only likely candidate other than the favourites to be in the bottom two this week.

Olly was not at his best this week, but he did try something different after constant pressure from the judges. He is nailed on for the final but for the first time I think he needs to pick it up a little bit more.

Joe got the plum spot and the plum song this week. It was a good performance and I dare anyone to disagree. I have problems with Joe though. This time last year they were criticising Diana for not being able to dance. Why has this not been mentioned to Joe (or Stacey for that matter)? I also don't like his accent being so obvious when he is singing. He looks like he will be in the final, but he's still not the winner for me.

In summary there will be no bet this week. I do expect the market to be correct and have Lloyd and Jedward in the bottom two. If that is the case then Louis and Cheryl's votes will be obvious. Danni will save Lloyd, because she has been consistently honest throughout. So we come down to Simon again who I think will take it to the public once more. Lloyd might just survive it if that is the case.

I'm a Celebrity...

I've watched the majority of episodes of this years IACGMOOH, mainly because it has been entertaining to see Katie Price lumbered with all the bush trials.

When I first saw this years line-up I felt Jimmy White may well have a chance of winning and the firms agreed. He has however so far played a very insignificant part and eased accordingly in the market. There seems to be quite a friendly atmosphere (Bugner aside) and that I think has played a part in making it quite a boring season so far.

For my money however, there has been one personality that has stood out. George Hamilton. He seems to have quite a quirky personality and is always looking to enjoy himself while helping others to have a good time too. He is currently available at 8/1 with Boylesports and Stan James. This seems big to me, and maybe it is partly to do with the fact he is in "exile" at the moment and therefore vulnerable to eviction. I think the show needs him and voters of all ages will like him. Back him now at 8/1 because I am certain he will be shorter in the very near future and could very well go on to win the show.

1pt George Hamilton to win 8/1 Boyles & Stans.

My X factor eviction views will be posted tomorrow when I have watched the show back again.

A Monday Night Football Bet

I've been fairly busy this week so my bet has been delayed, but I have managed to put in enough research to come out with a bet that should get Nutty Sports back to winning ways.

We will have to wait until Monday night for the action as this week I am taking on the Texans with a much improved Tennesse side.

Houston come off a buy week having pushed the Indianapolis Colts very close in Week 9. We took on Tennesse in week 5 but they look a completely different side these last 3 weeks. There has been a change at Quarterback as Vince Young has replaced Kerry Collins (regular readers will recall that I suggsted that as a possibility in week 5). Vince Young threw for 210 yards last week but the real revelation at Tennesse has been Chris Johnson. Johnson has had 4 consecutive 100+ yard rushing games and topped it off with adding 100 receiving yards last week.

In their last 3 games both the Titans and Texans have beaten Buffalo and San Francisco. In these match ups The Titans have scored 74 and conceded 43. The Texans have scored 55 and conceded 31.

I think there is now some determination and belief in Tennesse after 3 wins in a row and Chris Johnson has been very vocal when declaring they will win their last 10 games. That may be a bit hopeful but it is a sign on the improvement they have made. This should be another tight divisional battle as The Titans try and close the gap on their AFC South rivals.

The Texans beat the Titans 34-31 back in September, but that was during their slump. The Titans have won 7 of the last 9 matches between the sides and boast an 11-4 record overall.

I actually think The Titans can win this match and wouldn't put anyone off a small bet at 19/10 with Paddy Power, but I'm going to take the security of a 5 point start.

1pt win Tennesse +5 @ 10/11 Paddy Power.

Identifying The Error

Looking back at the difference between last week and the seven previous to that the first thing that springs to mind is that for the first time I went against my lines.

Every week I have found a game where my views have differed from Vegas and used that as a starting point when studying how the teams matched up. Week 10 was different. I backed New Orleans at -13.5 when I made them -12.5. It's easy to say with hindsight that it should have been a "no bet" week and I considered that at one point but it became too importnat to me to keep the run going and that in itself was a mistake.

On to the Vegas lines for Week 11 with my lines in brackets.

	At Carolina	-3	Miami
	At Detroit	-3.5	Cleveland
	At Jacksonville	-9 (-3)	Buffalo
	Pittsburgh	-10 (-4.5)	At Kansas City
	At Baltimore	PK (+2.5)	Indianapolis
	At NY Giants	-6.5 (-3.5)	Atlanta
	At Green Bay	-6.5 (-3)	San Francisco
	At Minnesota	-11 (-9.5)	Seattle
	At Dallas	-11 (-5.5)	Washington
	New Orleans	-11.5 (-14)	At Tampa Bay
	Arizona	-9 (-5)	At St. Louis
	At New England	-10.5 (-9)	NY Jets
	Cincinnati	-9.5 (4.5)	At Oakland
	San Diego	-3 (-3)	At Denver
	Philadelphia	-3 (-3.5)	At Chicago

Monday Night Football Line

	At Houston	-5 (-3.5)	Tennessee

Hmmm, looks like I will be having a bet on every game this week! I differ from Vegas on almost all the lines and by quite some distance in some match ups. At least it looks promising in the search for a bet this week. Time will tell.

Monday Morning Blues.

I suppose it was inevitable that sooner or later we would be discussing a NFL losing bet but it certainly doesn't feel right. Couple that with a bad X Factor result and it's twice the agony.

Even though I had felt Jamie was in trouble this week I still managed to have a large red number under his name on Betfair and with Lloyd also being in the sing off it gave Nutty Sports a munch on a reality sandwich.

I wasn't concentrating as much on the games last night due to playing poker but I will take a look at the Saint's match this afternoon and try and work out where that St Louis performance came from. The important thing is to accept defeat rather than chase it. Look at where any errors might have been made and look at where we were going right in an attempt to bounce back to winning ways.

So as always I have compiled my early handicap lines and published below.

Week 11

Pitsburgh - 4.5 @ kansas
at Green Bay -3 San Francisco
Indianapolis -2.5 @ Baltimore
at Minnesota -9.5 Seattle
at Dallas -5.5 Washington
at New York Giants -3.5 Atlanta
New Orleans -14 @ Tampa Bay
at Jacksonville -3 Buffalo
Arizona -5 @ St Louis
at New England -9 New York Jets
Cincinnati -4.5 @ Oakland
San Diego -3 @ Denver
at Chicago -3.5 Philadelphia
at Houston -3.5 Tennesse

I am not going to rush into anything this week so will take my time studying all the match ups. I'm returning to London tomorrow and have a busy week ahead so I may be a while before coming to any conclusions this week. I will try and get the Vegas lines up tomorrow.

Week 6 Elimination.

Having crowed about how easy trading the elimination market has been I made a right hash of it this week. Worse still I was trying to demonstrate my "winning strategy" to my brother-in-law which probably mirrored a Monty Python sketch.

Queen week doesn't really work for me, I'm not a big fan and the acts reminded me why.

Jamie was trading around 6/1 before his performance and it is generally accepted opening the show is a slight disadvantage and I don't think the song choice helped him much. His price to be eliminated now stands at around 11/4 and shortened slowly throughout the night. I think Jamie is bang in trouble tonight but I hope I'm wrong.

Lloyd is still the favourite but his price as stayed pretty constant and he was at least handed some positive comments from the judges. I personally thought his vocals weak again. Lloyd may be another act to benefit from Lucie's departure as some of her Welsh voters may transfer to Baby Becks.

Were Jedward any good? I think they are improving but when you start at the bottom there is only one way to go. They are still awful singers. Their price has eased steadily and are now 3rd favourites to go.

Olly and Stacey appear to be very safe. The elimination of Lucie has strengthened Stacey's position in several ways in my opinion. They need to keep a girl in the show if only to offer some variety and like I said in an earlier post I think she the more likely to pick up the most of Lucie's voters.

People appear to like Joe, but I don't. He just doesn't look believable as a pop star to me. When I watch Olly he seems so comfortable on the stage but Joe always looks uneasy. He is obviously Cheryl's favourite. However, I am sure we will see him in the bottom two very soon.

Danyl was good, but must also be considered for a bottom two place. Since finding himself there a few weeks ago he has bounced back but fans may start to get complacent with him again. It has happened a few times in these shows before where fans spread their votes to other acts assuming Danyl or the like are safe and it has backfired. This could happen again this week.

Looking at the market on the exchanges I think it might be worth a small lay of Lloyd to be in the bottom two. It is possible to lay it at 4/7 at time of going to press but I imagine it will be possible to lay it at 1/2. I think his fans will continue to vote this week, as I said earlier he may well pick up some extra Welsh votes and he did have his best week according to the Judges.

1pt Lay Lloyd week 6 bottom 2 at around 4/7

A few Song updates...

As suspected the early songs I listed were not 100% accurate. I have copied the official song list below :

Stacey - Who Wants To Live Forever
Joe - Somebody To Love
Lloyd - Crazy Little Thing Called Love
Danyl - We Are The Champions
Jamie - Radio Gaga
Olly - Don't Stop Me Now
John and Edward - Under Pressure

Apparently Jedward will be adopting the Vanilla Ice version. I'll have an update tomorrow with my elimination views.

X Factor - Queen Week.

I have a list of songs for Queen week on X Factor tonight. There are a few rumours surrounding Stacey's song so I cannot confirm all the songs are 100% correct at this time but here they are:

Olly - Don't Stop Me Now
Joe - Somebody To Love
Stacey - No One But You
Jamie - Seven Seas Of Rhye
Jedward - Radio Ga Ga
Danyl - We Are The Champions
Lloyd - Crazy Little Thing Called Love

A pretty solid song choice all round. Jamie has found a great track, I think I am right in saying it was Queen's first hit and it could be a show stopping performance from the Afro Man.

I like Olly's choice too, it might be my favourite Queen track and I am confident he will perform well again.

Danyl's song suggests we could see the return of his confidence or arrogance depending on your view point. He should sing it well and avoid the "screaming" that Dannii mentioned last week.

Jedward, please go home.

Lloyd is reportedly going to have a big production tonight, he probably needs it to be fair. His voters came out in force last week to save "Baby Becks" and they will need to again for him to make it to week 7.

Joe has chosen another song that should be fairly easy to perform but he really is starting to be a bit dull. How much longer will fans put up with his cheesy grin and stale routine on stage. I am not going to suggest he will be in the bottom two this week but I wouldn't mind if he was.

Stacey should be safe this week regardless of her song. I think she is the most likely to pick up any of Lucie's voters and that will strengthen her position. She is also the only girl left and I am sure ITV and Simon Cowell will want a girl in the final stages.

If there are any differences in songs I will post them around 5pm for I'm hopeful these are correct. As far as a bet goes it is a tricky week. We will need to gauge the feeling towards Simon's acts.

The acts that have been in the bottom 2 before would be a good starting point so we need to look at Danyl, Lloyd and Jedward. Danyl's fans seem to have found their phones again so he may well be fine for a while yet.

Jedward are hard to call. Their fans may have got complacent last week and come out fighting this week, which is a popular feature (Lloyd, Rachel & Danyl have all experienced this) on the other hand they may well have run their course and be in big trouble.

Jamie would be an obvious option, but I have a feeling he may well be awarded performance of the night. I am not going to have a bet at this stage, I will be trading the elimination market again tonight though and perhaps I will have a view after watching the show a couple of times. I'll let you know tomorrow.

We have a bet!

I'm staying away from Tampa, one win does not justify a bet and I feel it would be too much like guessing to suggest they can keep it close against Miami who have arguably been unlucky in defeat a few times this season.

I've looked long and hard at all the games again this week and although my early lines don't support this I have decided that New Orleans will have far too much for a poor St Louis team at the Edward Jones Dome.

So far New Orleans are 6 & 2 against the spread which includes 3 & 0 on the road. I really do not put as much emphasis on home advantage as some do and in many cases the team spirit is lifted by travelling as the players feel less pressure and have more time together in the hotel creating a strong team unity.

New Orleans have battled back twice now (Miami & Carolina) and secured a lot of 2nd half points as their opponents D-Line has tired and I think The Rams defense will be very tired in the latter quarters on Sunday.

It's no suprise that the point spread is only 50 for this match up even though New Orleans have averaged 37.9 points per game and 40.3 points on the road. It's simply because St Louis who have been shut out twice (Seattle & San Francisco) have only averaged 9.6 and a slighlty better 11 points per game at home.

St Louis come off a bye week, which probably wasn't an ideal time for them because they did manage their first win in 18 games the week before, when a last minute touchdown gave them a 17-10 win against Detroit.

Rookie head coach Steve Spagnuolo (known more for defense) has no choice but to stick with QB Marc Bulger even though he has only thrown 3 touchdowns in their 8 matches so far. Compare that to Drew Brees and you can imagine the fear of Rams fans as the game approaches.

A 2 touchdown victory will be enough to cover but I think the Saints will win this game by 20+ points and I'm not concerned that they might take their foot of the gas when out of sight because Drew Brees works endlessly to improve his stats in an attempt to break more records.

In what is a tough week for punters I am certain New Orleans can take us to 8 & 0.

2pts New Orleans Saints -13.5 generally.

Vegas Lines - Week 10

When I reviewed my lines last night I tried looking at them from a betting point of view and thought that the line I had given Tennesse looked like a good bet. Upon checking Vegas they have doubled it so I have likely made a mistake there.

Vegas - Week 10, with my lines in brackets:


At San Francisco -3 (3.5) Chicago

At NY Jets -6.5 (5.5) Jacksonville

Denver -5 (4.5) At Washington

At Pittsburgh -6.5 Cincinnati

At Tennessee -6.5 (3) Buffalo

At Minnesota -16.5 (12.5) Detroit

New Orleans -13.5 (12.5) At St. Louis

Atlanta -1.5 (2.5) At Carolina

At Miami -9.5 (6) Tampa Bay

At Oakland -1.5 (+2.5) Kansas City

At Arizona -9 (6.5) Seattle

At San Diego -2.5 (2.5) Philadelphia

Dallas -3 (1.5) At Green Bay

At Indianapolis -3 (2.5) New England

Baltimore -11 (9.5) At Cleveland

For some reason I missed Pitsburgh and Cincinnati's match up, probably due to the game last night, where Hines Ward found the end zone twice giving me a good victory in my fantasy league game.

So differences this week? I made Kansas favourites against Oakland and Vegas disagreed. The Chiefs have just released Larry Johnson for posting an interent comment and Oakland are back from a Bye week. It is a tricky one because both teams have losing records although The Raiders have managed 2 wins and are the home team so it is easy to see why Vegas favour them.

I will of course study all the match ups this week over the next few days but I am going to start with Tampa. They had a very unsuspected win against Green Bay on Sunday getting them off the mark and Vegas give them 3.5 points more than I did against their state rivals Miami. A good look at how these teams match up will be my starting point.

I am obviously pleased with 7 straight wins but will be absolutly gutted if I can't keep it going. The 8th winner will come this weekend of that I am sure.

7 Up, Now Back To The Grind.

I'm still not sure how much of a sweat Carolina gave us last night. I know a lot of people were only able to get +13 or +13.5 but I felt it was fairly comfortable throughout. The Panthers started well again cruising into a 14 point lead and The Saints had to revert to their running game in the 2nd half to put the points on the board.

I don't think Carolina would have scored from the drive had they not fumbled the ball on their own 2 yard line with less than 2 minutes remaining but the resulting Touchdown by The Saints making the score 30-20 flattered New Orleans in my opinion.

The main thing was we found another winning bet and the time and effort put in is reaping rewards so back to the grind we go. I have compiled my early lines for week 10 below.

at San Francisco -3.5 Chicago
Atlanta -2.5 @ Carolina
at Miami -6 Tampa
at Minnesota -12.5 Detroit
at New York Jets -5.5 Jacksonville
New Orleans -12.5 @ St Louis
at Tennesse -3 Buffalo
Denver -4.5 @ Washington
Kansas -2.5 @ Oakland
at Arizona -6.5 Seattle
Dallas -1.5 @ Green Bay
at San Diego -2.5 Philadelphia
at Indianapolis -2.5 New England
Baltimore -9.5 @ Cleveland

Byes Houston & New York Giants.

I feel relieved that The Giants have found a Bye week. Having made it to 5-0 they now find themselves at 5-4 and a week off with extra practise will be vital to get them back on track before they find themselves with too much to do in the NFC East.

The big match up next week is clearly New England's trip to Indianapolis. I'm giving the unbeaten Colts a narrow edge but they will need to improve on their last two performances to beat The Patriots.

I'll post the Vegas lines tomorrow after the Steelers/Broncos game where I am hoping Hines Ward can score 5 points or more for my fantasy team to give me another winning week ;o)

On another note I was very disappointed with the X Factor last night. I have always considered Simon fairly honest and straight forward but for whatever reason he did not do the right thing last night. I remember his quote just after they had narrowed the acts down to 24 - he said to Louis "If I get the groups, the Twins aren't even getting on the plane".

His actions last night were not worthy of him, he said he would put the best performance through, he did not. Whether he thinks the twins are providing more media coverage for the show or not, it is wrong to make a talented singer like Lucie suffer. Whatever happens won't affect Simon much because he will make money whatever the outcome, but his actions may well be detrimental to his acts as fans of the show fight back the only way they can.

Week 5 Elimination.

I always find it helpful to watch the show a couple of times before coming to any decisions. Quite often when watched live for the first time bias can set in as you are cheering for the acts you have invested in. This is also apparent with the judges and their knee jerk reactions, quite often you will hear Simon take something back after watching the show again.

I was trading the elimination market on the exchanges last night and I really couldn't believe how simple it was. I was able to lock in profit on Lloyd, Danyl, Stacey, Jedward, Joe & Jamie. It will be a shock if I don't have a winning week.

On to the performances, starting with Stacey, and her "personality" is starting to grind somewhat. I am sure comedians and impersonaters are praying that she wins because she will be so easy to take off. Lift shoulders, grin relentlesly, shake head quickly from left to right and the rest is easy. Her performance was not that great either, decent song from a very good film but it was only an average performance and I think Louis Walsh could do sexy better. We are aware that going first is not ideal but last night Stacey was the only act to coincide with Strictly Come Dancing and a few might have held on for the results from the Beeb missing her introduction (the PR part) which won't help her cause. Its always hard to tell how strong an acts support is when they haven't been in the bottom two before, but I think she will be one of the first "fancied" acts to fill that spot.

Olly was very good. I thought the whole performance was entertaining. It might not be the best song to show of your vocal range but it was virtually faultless. Yes the Judges want him to step it up a gear but I don't think he will have any problem nailing any song he is given. For me the competition is his to lose.

I thought Lloyd was better last night, but the judges seem determined that he will be the next to go. I'm not sure what happened to his legion of fans last week, has their credit on their phones run out? Had Mothers round the nation just recieved a big phone bill? If Lloyd finds himself in the bottom two this week (and the market cetainly thinks he will) the only act he is likely to survive against is John and Edward.

Jamie changed his song again, as I had originally thought he was to do Unchained Melody and the last minute change was a good idea. The judges liked it, commenting on the emotion he put into the performance and although I was unsure at first, when I watched it back the second time I definitly enjoyed it more and it may well be his best performance to date. However not all voters will be watching the re-run and the prices suggest he could be in the bottom two this week as I suggested yesterday. It is tricky to call because like Stacey we can't be sure as to how many people are voting for him yet. I hope he gets through but he is a likely contender for the sing off tonight.

Lucie was not as good as last week, the song was a bit dull. I'm not sure what type of singer she is trying to become doing Guns and Roses one week and then following it up with a disney track means you might not attract the same support. That being said I can't see her in the bottom two this week and will probably be Dannii's last act in the competition in weeks to come.

Danyl certainly looked better last night. The song was perfect for him but I still felt his performance was a little subdued compared to his past efforts. I was hoping for a show stopping performance from him with that track but I don't think he managed it. That being said I am certain it was good enough and the all important PR should see him through.

John and Edward. I like them less each week especially when Louis is squealing like a piglet about how much the public like them and how entertaining they are. Personally I had to go and hide behind the couch during their performance last night. I'd plead for common sense to prevail and ask people not to vote for them if I thought it would do any good but they look safe. One thing I noticed on the exchanges last night was how big their bottom two price is compared to their elimination price. This is solely because if they do find themselves in the bottom two they will be eliminated by the judges.

Joe got the hot slot last night as all acts would prefer to go last. He sang the song well as he has done every week but was it good enough to make you pick up the phone? I'm not sure who is voting for him because when I research the "fans" feelings I am yet to encounter a Joe fanatic. Should be safe as houses this week but I'll re-iterate my feelings, he is not a likely winner. Just too smiley and boring to win outright in my opinion.

I find myself in a decent position this week on the elimination market and won't lose a penny on whoever goes, I have mentioned this market before but was more apprehensive due to the extra day of voting. Well it hasn't affected the market at all and I would advise anyone to give it a go. For example I was able to back LLoyd at 6/4 during his perfomance last night and lay him off at 10/11 during the judges comments. It is that simple.

I think it is a difficult week and when these circumstances arise maybe it might be an idea to have a small bet at a big price. The action on the exchanges has cooled down and probably won't pick up again until the show starts tonight so tread carefully when taking the prices on offer. The market has Lloyd nailed on for bottom 2 with Jamie at 5/4 and Stacey at 3/1 it could well be a coin flip between the two so a small bet on Stacey may reap rewards.

0.5pt Stacey bottom two 3/1 Boyles or Betfair.

Hands up - a few amendements required.

It looks like my earlier source has got a number of songs wrong again. I had heard that there were two possibilities for a few of the artists, so the official list is now revealed below.

Stacey Son Of A Preacher
Lucie This Is Me - Demi Lovato (From Camp Rock).
Joe Circle Of Life - Elton John (From The Lion King).
Lloyd Stand By Me
Danyl Purple Rain.
Jamie Crying - Roy Orbison.
Olly Twist And Shout.
John and Edward Ghostbusters Theme - Ghostbusters.

What does this mean then? Well I am still not enthralled by Jamie's song although it is a better option than Unchained Melody. Lloyd will be trying to play it safe with a steady ballad rather than the up tempo gamble.

Stacey's song is a decent one and Lucie's song will still be popular with the viewers I expect. Apologies for the earlier errors, but I still think Jamie may well find himself in the bottom two this week.

X Factor - Movie Week.

So on we go to week 5 of X Factor and apparently that means we are now half way through. There have been a few late song changes this year but at the time of going to press the below is correct.

John and Edward – Ghostbusters.
Danyl Johnson – Purple Rain.
Stacey Soloman – Mad World.
Olly Murs – Twist and Shout.
Jamie Archer – Unchained Melody.
Joe McElderry – Circle Of Life.
Lloyd - Footloose.
Lucie - This Is Loose.

John and Edward, what can I say? I'm sure they will be in full Ghostbusting uniform prancing around the stage and the only thing in doubt is what track will they massacre next week.

It's a good solid song choice for Danyl, it will let him attack the vocals and display his voice, really should be safe this week.

Jamie could be in trouble, he is getting some bad press and this song has been done to death. I'm not sure how many people will be urged to pick up the phone after hearing Unchained Melody for the millionth time.

Joe also has a dodgy song. If I recall correctly in a previous series Eton Road were eliminated when covering this song. It's not great and although Joe is one of the market leaders he may well be in trouble this weekend. I expect the judges to criticise Cheryl's song choice again this week.

Really not sure about how LLoyd will pull Footloose off. I think we may see a big stage show similar to the twins tactics in order to detract from his vocal performance.

Personally I would have liked to see Olly take more of a chance, its a bit predictable singing Twist and Shout but I'm sure he'll be fine.

Stacey may also struggle. I'm not sure how this song will suit her and she will be forced to "stand still" again rather than the miraculous walking she did last week which is bound to be mentioned.

Lucie's song is a aimed at the target audience, it will probably be a popular pick and will likely be enough to see her through to week 6.

I will write an update tomorrow before the elimination show after I have reviewed the performances a couple of times. At this stage though it may be worth considering a bet on Jamie to be in the bottom two.

Seventh Heaven?

I have literally spent the last 24 hours thinking of nothing but football, American football of course. I looked at Chicago in some depth who are 3 & 0 at home but just could not split them enough from an Arizona side who are 3 & 0 on the road to recommend a bet. Something will have to give but I can't be sure what.

Likewise with Baltimore, they could quite easily follow last weeks win against Denver with a good win in Cincinnati but after the Bengals' week 5 win at Baltimore where Cedric Benson rushed for over 100 yards (the first player to do so against Baltimore since 2006) I just can't be sure enough. Cincinnati look decent this year, WR Chad Ocho Cinco seems to be fitting in better this term and offers quite a talent. Another no bet game for me.

Houston have had their best ever start to a season with a 5 & 3 record and I'm still hopeful that they can make the play offs. I don't think Indianapolis will cover the 9 point handicap but with Houston's TE Owen Daniels out for the rest of the season following his injury against Buffalo I'd like to know who is going to replace him. Personally I'd like to see The Texans play WR Glenn Martinez at TE to offer the similar pace and threat that Daniels does but it is likely that they will play it safer. I can't quite justify a bet here, but I do expect it to be another tight divisional battle.

So where have I placed my money in order to make it 7 out of 7. I've put it firmly in the hands of Jake Delhomme and his Carolina Panthers. Delhomme will be fit for Sundays game against his old team New Orleans Saints. I know it's unusual to take on a team with a 7 & 0 record but this is the time to do it. Delhomme is actually 8 & 2 against his old club and that is a big positive.

As I have said in an earlier post The Panthers are rated no:1 in pass defense and they will run the ball hard offensively which is all the right assets to have against New Orleans.

Carolina were quick out of the blocks against Arizona on Sunday and ended up beating last years Superbowl runners up 34 - 21 and keeping Larry Fitzgerald fairly quiet in the process.

Yes New Orleans are at the top of their powers but the more thought I put into this divisional match up the more I am confident that my original line of -7 will be much closer to the mark. Carolina have won 3 of their last 4, they made the play offs last season and will be going all out for that AFC wild card spot.

Coral are the only firm left offering Carolina +14 now as all the other firms have dipped below the 2 touchdown line. Get on quick before it's all gone.

1pt Carolina Panthers +14 @ 8/9 Corals

Vegas Lines and a few early thoughts.

So what have Vegas come up with for Week 9? I have posted their lines below with my views compiled yesterday in brackets.

At Jacksonville -6.5 (-5.5) Kansas City

Baltimore -3 (-3) At Cincinnati

At Indianapolis -9 (-4.5) Houston

At Atlanta -10 (-6.5) Washington

Green Bay -10 (-6) At Tampa Bay

At Chicago -3 (-5) Arizona

At New England -10.5 (-9) Miami

At New Orleans -14 (-7) Carolina

At Seattle -10 (-6.5) Detroit

At San Francisco -4 (-3.5) Tennessee

At NY Giants -4.5 (-3.5) San Diego

At Philadelphia -3 (-2.5) Dallas

Pittsburgh -3 (-2.5) At Denver

Straight away there are two games that I have made a lot closer than Vegas. Now obviously my lines haven't moved and Vegas' move often. I think it prudent to start here though when searching for the weeks bet.

New Orleans host Carolina and Vegas have given the Panthers a 2 touchdown start. We know The Saints have been firing so far and are now the proud owners of a perfect 7 & 0 record. Carolina sit at 3 & 4 having started with 3 straight defeats and are improving their numbers especially rushing yards where the likes of DeAngelo Williams played a prominant part in their defeat of Arizona on Sunday.

The Saints were made to work hard for their victory at home to Atlanta last night and like I've emphasised before divisional games do spark that extra bit of rivalry that can often keep the game tighter.

In order to consider Carolina as a potential bet we would need to look closely at their pass defense and interestingly enough they are ranked 1st in the NFL conceding only 160.6 yards. The Saints have been scoring heavily but they have also been conceding too, they are ranked 20th with an average of 22.0 points conceded per game - for a team that is unbeaten that does look on the high side.

Panthers' Quarterback Jake Delhomme was injured on Sunday and we will have to be sure of his fitness also. Taking on The Saints might be a little risky but I think my line will be closer to the one Vegas has published. I will review my thoughts on this match in the next couple of days when team news is more certain.

The next game where I differ from Vegas by some 4.5 points (which equates to half) is Houston's divisional battle in Indianapolis. Yep, Houston again. They do seem to be putting some consistency together and after The Colts sub par performance on Sunday my reaction was to keep this game close.

Vegas say that Indianapolis are 9 points better than Houston, but lets remember they are laying these prices and therefore need to keep some teams on side. A 7 & 0 Indianapolis team will attract action, they will be in multiple bets as well as bigger hitters lumping on them so it is my feeling that sometimes Vegas (and bookies) will offer slight value on their opponents. I don't lay my lines - I look to try and make each game a tie or close to it when I compile my handicaps. The Colts with Peyton Manning pulling the strings do look a force but San Francisco only condeded 18 points against them this weekend yet Vegas had the closing line at -13.

Houston do have a winning record of 5 & 3 and their numbers are not bad. They average 24.8 points a game (12th) (having started badly in week 1 scoring only 7) to the Colts 28.1 (7th). Again I will be waiting to catch up on how practise is going during the week because I was a little suprised that RB Steve Slaton was sent to the bench against Buffalo - although he has been fumbling I rate him quite highly and I'd be interested to know if Head Coach Gary Kubiak is likely to favour Ryan Moats this coming week.

For the time being the research continues, but I am confident of finding the 7th winner plenty before the action gets underway.

Week 9 Lines - an early view

So Dallas did the business comfortably taking us to 6 & 0. It was another exciting night of action made easier by the horrible defense of Seattle.

Reading the Racing Post yesterday I was suprised to see their NFL writer tipping up Seattle to win especially as his arguements seemed to further enhance the view of Nutty Sports. He opened with the facts that The Seahawks were suufering with injuries and had just lost LB Lofa Tatupu for the season yet still took on an improving Dallas side. To give him his dues he did call it right with Baltimore and Oakland.

The Ravens sent Denver back to reality with a crushing display and San Diego were not even close to covering the 17 point start given to divisional rivals Oakland. I had thought Oakland may be a team to study as Vegas were slowly increasing their handicaps but they are on a bye week in week 9 so we will have to wait.

On to my lines for week 9, which I have ensured are the correct fixtures this week and have published below.

at Cincinnati -3.5 Baltimore
at Chicago -5 Arizona
at Atlanta -6.5 Washington
Green Bay -6 @ Tampa Bay
at New England -9 Miami
at Jacksonville -5.5 Kansas
at Indianapolis -4.5 Houston
at New Orleans -7 Carolina
at Seattle -6.5 Detroit
at San Francisco -3.5 Tennesse
at New York Giants -3.5 San Diego
at Philadelphia -2.5 Dallas
Pitsburgh -2.5 @ Denver

Byes: Buffalo, Cleveland, Minnesota, NY Jets, Oakland and St Louis.

I'm sure the Jets will be pleased for a rest week to try and regroup after what has been a bad few weeks for them.

Tough games to compile this week included Houston @ Indianapolis. As you know I've struggled to get Houston right this season so far but The Colts did not look as impressive against The 49ers yesterday and I wouldn't want to give them to much to do in the AFC South match up.

Denver face reigning champions Pitsburgh after their first defeat of the season and it will be interesting to see if they are capable of bouncing back with what would be a great victory or if The Steelers have found the right time to play them.

Another divisional match up for Philadelphia this week sees Dallas head to Lincoln Financial Field and the winner will take outright leadership in the NFC East after the Giants lost their 3rd game in a row. As a Giants fan it is a worrying time. They did have a decent start to the season but as soon as they came up against teams with winning records they struggled. They must beat The Chargers this week to get back on track.

I will post The lines from Vegas tomorrow - its normally better to wait until the completion of the Monday night game which could be a cracker as Atlanta travel to New Orleans.

X Factor week 4 elimination.

I watched the show back last night and I'm not suprised one iota that Olly Murs has gone clear favourite. He was an original pick and I do expect him to be right bang in it at the business end.

Reviewing the other performers last night I feel Lucie - who I've not been a fan of to date had her strongest week, I enjoyed her performance and would have to think she will sail through to next week. Jamie probably wasn't as good as people expected him to be, he was solid and I still think he has one of the stronger voices but when a lot is expected of you it is very hard to deliver. Louis sees him as the weaker link in Simon's group and attacks him relentlessly but I'm sure viewers will see through it because Louis is not of high intellect and struggles to make a good point and often lets himself down further with nothing short of bitchiness.

After Stacey performed the highlight apparently was that "she walked". It wasn't great and to be honest none of her songs have been anything other than dull. How long can her personality keep her in, for my money not that much longer.

Excluding the twins I think it obvious that Lloyd was the worst performer again last night. Will his legion of fans come to his rescue again? He has (with Joe & Olly) been topping the weekly phone vote according to my source. I think he will be safe enough for a while yet, which is a shame because better singers who aren't considered as good looking will suffer in the meantime. We must take this in to account when betting though, and I am considering a lay of Lloyd at around 5/2 for elimination this week.

Rachel wasn't quite so animated post song this week, which can only be a good thing. I think she performed well and is definitly improving. I'm not certain she has enough "fans" and although they saved her last week that could have been a one off sympathy vote and she might find that they don't pick up the phone for her again this week.

The Twins are starting to annoy me, they are without doubt the worst act to ever appear in the finals of X Factor. Louis thinks they are likeable and people should vote for them. The man is a hypocrite. This is not a popularity contest, the key point is being a gifted singer and they are bordering on being tone deaf. I think their joke voters will save them for a while yet, but personally I hope that they leave and the competition can go back to being a tough singer contest.

Danyl was all about the PR this week, with him trying to look humble but in due process forgot to perform well. It's a tough call, he still is one of the market leaders and last week might be a case of fans spreading their vote thinking he was safe. If that was the case expect him to be first through tonight, if it wasn't then he could again be in the bottom two, becasue it was by far his worst night yet.

I actually quite liked Joe's song and performance last night. He changed gears a bit I felt and I think thats important. He is not a contender for bottom two this week but it is possible that viewers are starting to see his limitations. Simon said at boot camp he felt that Joe was a year or two away from being ready for this competition and I agree totally with that statement. He really is not a likely winner for me. I think he will need Lloyd to go soon to pick up any extra votes and that might not be possible.

So in summary, it's a tough one to call. I think Dannii would be the most concerned today for I can't see her not having to save one of her acts tonight. It'll probably be Rachel but it could be Stacey.

1pt LAY @ 5/2 Lloyd to be eliminated in week 4.