A few late song changes...

The early list I posted today was not 100% accurate as I did warn, most were right but below is the official song list for Rock Week tonight on X Factor.

Rachel One – U2
Stacey Somewhere Only We Know - Keane
Lucie Sweet Child O' Mine – Guns 'N Roses
Joe Don’t Stop Believin' – Journey
Lloyd I Kissed A Girl – Katy Perry (Rock version)
Danyl I Don't Want to Miss a Thing - Aerosmith
Jamie Get Your Rocks Off - Primal Scream
Olly Come Together – Aerosmith version
John and Edward We Will Rock You – Five version

X Factor - Rock Week.

Bearing in mind Tottenham kick off against Arsenal in an hour this will be just a quick post. Spurs dropped 3 points last week just when they needed them most but have been lifted by a decent cup win midweek.

Like all North London Derbies there is rarely any value and I certainly won't be having a bet, I am hopeful though Spurs can put in a decent enough performance to take away something from The Emirates.

Anyway, on to the X Factor and I have what I think are tonights songs, these are not 100% confirmed but it has come from a decent source who gave them to me correctly last week. If in doubt you can always check the official website around 5pm for confirmation.

Danyl - Careless Whisper (Seether version)
Olly - Come Together (Aerosmith version)
Jamie - Like A Prayer ( Rock version)
John and Edward - We Will Rock You (Five version)
Stacey - Somewhere Only We Know ( Natasha Bedingfield version of Keane song)
Lucie - Sweet Child Of Mine (Guns N Roses)
Rachel - One (Adam Lambert version)
Joe - Dont Stop Believing (Journey)
Lloyd - I Kissed A Girl (Rock version)

It looks like some fairly solid choices have been made this week, and so they should becuase getting it wrong should be easy enough to avoid. I really think LLoyd is starting to look weak as others are getting better and better but some research I made this week suggests that Joe, Olly & Lloyd are getting the vast majority of the votes. When this occurs we need to consider where the newly eliminated acts' votes will go. I don't think it is clear by any means as to who will go out tonight, if Rachel and the Twins manage to survive again we could lose a "big name" tonight.

At the moment we are in a great position with Olly (though we best not forget the loss of Rikki) he improved again last week in my opinion. I would like to see him reign in his passion for the ladies for a while because numerous media stories could tip any finely balanced final against him. I'm looking forward to a good show and in all honesty really hope they get rid of the twins tonight because then it could become a really good singing competition*

Come on Tottenham!

*I worry now that the Twins wil be saved so Louis Walsh isn't actless with so many weeks to go.

Time to tackle Seattle.

Straight back down to business and I have found a bet for week 8 that I like very much. I'm normally one to shy away from teams that have large handicaps to cover but in this instance I think the 9.5 points start given to Seattle at Dallas is not enough.

Originally I had thought this game was in Seattle where the Seahawks are 2-2 and I still made Dallas solid favourites. On the road Seattle are 0-2 conceding a total of 57 and scoring 27. Overall Seattle's numbers do not look very pretty, the two games they have won were Jacksonville who are 3-3 and St Louis 0-6.

Last year on Thanksgiving The Cowboys won this fixture 34-9 (Seattle have not improved since that game whereas the confidence in Dallas is gaining momentum) and Seattle Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck had a torrid time being sacked 7 times . The signs do not look promising for Hasselbeck having been sacked 5 times last week against Arizona and I think the Cowboys will batter him once again.

Dallas are rated 2nd in the NFL for offensive yardage averaging 419.3 a game with Seattle 23rd with 310.2.

Dallas have the added incentive of being able to tie for top place in the NFL East should Philadelphia beat New York and that would put Tony Romo and his men right bang in the race for the toughest division in the National Football Conference. Here's to "America's Team" taking Nutty Sports to 6 & 0.

1pt win Dallas -9.5 generally.

Vegas Lines - Week 8

I'm still feeling a little sick about the lack of prices for Miss World this year, the bookies really are running scared. A number of us were having to back the lovely Miss Puerto Rico with Australian firms in the early hours today but at least we managed to get some of the 12s and 8s before the guys from down under were also forced to suspend the market like their counterparts in Ireland.

So will the rest of the firms compile a market now, be interesting to see if they will now that they have missed the annual gamble, what price Miss Puerto Rico please lads?

Anyway, on to week 8 and the Vegas lines are below.


At Baltimore -3.5 Denver

At Chicago -13.5 Cleveland

Houston -3.5 At Buffalo

At Green Bay -3 Minnesota

At Indianapolis -12 San Francisco

At NY Jets -3.5 Miami

At Detroit -4 St. Louis

At Dallas -9.5 Seattle

At San Diego -17 Oakland

At Tennessee -3 Jacksonville

At Arizona -9 Carolina

At Philadelphia -1.5* NY Giants

At New Orleans -10 Atlanta

There are a couple of things that really stand out to me this week and I'm hopeful of another great bet. I will spend today and tomorrow checking on the fitness of a number of players and trying to gage who will be playing and who will be left out. A bet will follow very soon.

Week 8 Lines

Miami gave us cause for concern on Sunday but Drew and the boys battled back to cover comfortably. In fact they won by 12 points which was very close to my 11.5 line that I compiled last Monday.

So on to week 8 and I've compiled the lines which at the moment are just early thoughts, there were a number of key injuries in Week 7 so they may well change over the next few days. There are also a couple of matches that are tricky this week. Buffalo had another good win so pricing them up at home to Houston is not clear cut, likewise with the poor road form of Chicago who travel to a weak looking Cleveland side.

Chicago -3.5 @ Cleveland
at Denver -2.5 Baltimore
at Buffalo -1.5 Houston
at New York Jets -4.5 Miami
at Minnesota -4 Green Bay
Indianapolis -9 @ San Francisco
Dallas -3.5 @ Seattle
at Detroit -4 St Louis
at Jacksonville -4.5 Tennesse
at San Diego -7.5 Oakland
at Arizona -5.5 Carolina
at Philadelphia -2.5 New York Giants
at New Orleans -9.5 Atlanta.

It's the first time this season that I have made the Giants underdogs but having lost their last two games the last place they would want to go is to divisional rivals Philadelphia. Green Bay are looking a useful side this year and they take on Brett favre's Vikings again in what could be another cracking match, whereas I doubt many are eagerly awaiting the match up between St Louis and Detroit.

I'll post the Vegas lines tomorrow. I'll be looking even harder this week because I want to find winner number 6.

EDIT: I've some of the fixtures the wrong way round again - thats twice the website I searched for them on has been incorrect so it makes a big difference to some of the lines. Chicago are actually at home to Cleveland so we don't need to worry about their road form and they will need to overcome a bigger handicap than I originally credited them with. Like wise Dallas and Green Bay are both at home and the line will change. Baltimore host Denver and therefore I'd expect a swing in points there and Finally Jacksonville visit Tennesse so some rethinking regarding that match will also be neccessary.

Quick post with X Factor songs - Big Band Week.

I've been fairly busy today with the drinking but here are a list of tonights songs on X Factor, they are in no particular order but as always it will help when trying to disect the elimination market.

Rachel Proud Mary - Beyonce version

Stacey When You Wish Upon A Star - From Disney's Pinnochio

Lucie My Funny Valentine - Ella fitzgerald

Joe Sway - Michael Buble version

Lloyd - Fly Me To The Moon - Frank Sinatra

Danyl Feeling Good - Muse version

Jamie Angel Of Harlem - U2

Olly Bewitched - Steve Lawrence

John and Edward She Bangs - Ricky Martin

Miss Frank That's Life - Frank sinatra

I've always felt that Jamie might just be the best singer but it's become apparent that Simon agrees. He seems to be giving Jamie really good song choices while challenging Danyl and taking chances with the popular Olly - I guess that shows his confidence in his team. Looking at the songs again I'd be suprised if the Welsh vote was strong enough to save Lucie from the bottom two again.

Why is it only 6?

I'm putting up this weeks bet a bit earlier this week because I'm fairly certain the line will change before kick off, and If it doesn't I am going to back it every day this week because I think it's my strongest bet of the year so far.

So straight to the point - and I apologise to all you Fins fans but I'm backing New Orleans in week 7 and they only have a 6 point handicap to cover. Less than one touchdown against a 2-3 Miami side. Miami rebounded well last season making the playoffs having gone 1-16 in 2007. They had a great 4th quarter against the Jets to steal the game in week 5 with 6 seconds to go and come fresh off a bye week, but as followers of this blog will know the Jets have lost their last 3 and have not lived up to their early promise. The fins' other victory also came in a divisional game against Buffalo at home.

When betting it is always advisable to back the form "horse" and they don't come in any better from right now than The New Orleans Saints. They are 5-0 having smashed the New York Giants 48-27 last weekend. Thats the number one ranked defense they put 48 points past! Drew Brees completed 15 straight passes in the first half and threw a 369 yard 4 touchdown game. Let me remind you that was a 369 yard 4 touchdown game against the best D-Line in the NFL this season.

New Orleans are real contenders this season and I wouldn't be suprised to find them in the Superbowl this year which ironically is in Miami. Looking at a few basic stats, The Saints average points per game is 38.4 which is ranked number one in the NFL over 5 games and Miami are ranked 15th with 22.4 over the 5 games. When I compiled my lines yesterday I made the Saints 11.5 point favourites and I'd be prepared to lay that so when the firms post up a 6 point handicap to cover I get very excited. The Saints are also ranked number one in the National Football league with an average of 430 offensive yards per game with Miami again at 15th with 340 per game.

It's clear Vegas and the firms favour the home team, but in my opinion they have over favoured them here. New Orleans only need to win by a touchdown to cover this line and I think they will do it comfortably.

I'm 4 and 0 for the season but this is my first 2 point recommended bet. Get stuck in and reap the rewards.

New Orleans -6 @ 10/11 generally.

4 & 0, but we've only just started.

I thought the fumbles made by Buffalo in the first half were going to be costly but fortunately they were able to turn it around and actually win the ball game in overtime making our 10pt start look massive and taking Nutty Sports to 4 and 0 for the season. We can't afford to get complacent and more funds are required from the bookie's satchels and this is the place to find out how.

So back to the grind stone, I have posted my handicap lines for week 7 below:

at Green Bay -7 Cleveland
at Indianapolis -14.5 St Louis
at Pitsburgh -2.5 Minnesota
New England -12.5 @ Tampa Bay (at Wembley)
San Diego -4.5 @ Kansas
at Houston -3.5 San Francisco
at Carolina -4 Buffalo
New York Jets -5.5 @ Oakland
at Dallas -3.5 Atlanta
at Cincinnati -2.5 Chicago
New Orleans -11.5 @ Miami
at New York Giants -4.5 Arizona
Philadelphia -3.5 @ Washington

The headline game this week seems to be Minnesota at Pitsburgh and although I have made The Steelers slight favourites I must admit to liking Minnesota in this match up. I wouldn't want to be a Tampa Bay fan this weekend (or any other to be honest) if the Patriots continue with their recent form and Indianapolis could also put up some big numbers on Sunday.
Pricing up Chicago is a bit tricky as they just don't seem to be the same side on the road as they are at Home. Atlanta's trip to Dallas could also be a tight affair.

I'll have the Vegas Lines up soon enough to do the usual comparisons and then hopefully a good bet will follow. In the meantime to help the winners keep flowing feel free to click on any of the new adverts you might see around the blog.

Song list revisisted.

It looks like the song list has been revised for tonight X Factor and it probably needed to be in all honesty. Obviously it will make a difference to our positions but for the time being all i can do is post the official list below - I'm too busy trading out of positions ;o)

DIVA WEEK
Rachel If I Were A Boy - Beyonce
Stacey At Last - Beyonce
Lucie How Will I Know- Whitney Houston
Joe Where Do Broken Hearts Go- Whitney Houston
Rikki R.E.S.P.E.C.T- Aretha Franklin
Lloyd Bleeding Love- Leona Lewis
Danyl I Didn't Know My Own Strength - Whitney Houston
Jamie Hurt - Christina Aguilera
Olly Fool in love - Tamyra Gray
John and Edward Oops I Did It Again- Britney Spears
Miss Frank All The Man That I Need- Whitney Houston

Diva week.

So to the 2nd live show of this years X Factor, and it could be a complete car wreck. I think Simon is trying to camp the show up a bit this year to add comedy value as it has become clear to me that it's the worst bunch of wannabees in a number of years. I've copied the songs below - I think they've been very generous when referring to Britney as a diva...

Girls:
Stacey Solomon - Leona Lewis, Bleeding Love
Lucie Jones - Whitney Houston, How Will I Know
Rachel Adedegi -Beyoncé, Halo
Boys:
Lloyd Daniels - Mariah Carey, Without You
Joe McElderry - Whitney Houston, Where Do Broken Hearts Go
Rikki Loney - Whitney Houston, I Will Always Love You
Overs:
Danyl Johnson - Shania Twain, Man! I Feel Like A Woman
Olly Murs - Beyoncé, Single Ladies
Jamie Archer - Gloria Gaynor, I Will Survive
Groups
John & Edward - Britney Spears, Oops I Did It Again
Miss Frank - Whitney Houston, All The Man I Need

First thing that stands out to me is that Cheryl appears to be looking after Joe with a lot more thought than her other 2 acts. She obviously wants him to do well coming from her home town and it's starting to show already.

Olly Murs could be bang in trouble tonight. Why is he doing that song? I'd imagine he'll prance about the stage trying to "flirt" with the cameras but like I said it looks like a car wreck waiting to happen.
Danyl Johnson seems to be playing up to the comments Dannii made last week, and it looks to me as if they are not even taking the competition seriously. The groups should be fine, they are playing to their strengths, J&E can jump around in a comedy manner and have the long chorus drown out their inability to sing and Miss Frank have a decent song in my opinion.

I think Stacey is taking a chance tonight especially after what was said about Lucie (the jolly) last week after she dared to attempt a Leona number - Simon won't be impressed no matter what because Leona is his one big success from this show.

Jamie as weird as it seems will probably nail that karaoke number. I expect Rachel to be safe this week, they have found her a great song and I reckon she will be the first one through. Lucie could have played it safer and I'll be watching interestingly to see how she deals with the slightly more upbeat number. It looks like a tactical choice but it could go wrong. Lloyd should sneak through no matter what - his choice is fairly safe. Rikki has a song he will be able to sing well but at this stage with the votes spread out across so many contestants I really can't see the Scottish fans not getting him through.

With the results show being on a Sunday this year (I'm not a fan, I have to stay in all weekend now and it clashes with the NFL) the voting takes a different dimension. This week I'll be looking to get in a few early positions with Olly, I think he could be in the bottom 2 this week and it doesn't take long for a suprise exit in this show.

I think we will definitly see a suprise in the bottom two this weekend. Olly or Stacey could well be the shock candidate, and I wouldn't rule out Lucie either. I might just have a couple of quid on each of them at a price.

Week 6 - Lets Go!

A big thank you to Nick Sharratt for his NBA preview. When the website is up and running I hope we will hear from Nick regularly with his insight.

So on to week 6, and it might just be the toughest week yet. It looks like I have got Houston wrong again according to Vegas anyway whose lines Nick has posted as a comment on an earlier post.

I really wanted to back Green Bay this week but there is no way I am interested when they have a 13.5 point handicap to cover. After the usual deliberation I have invested my money on Buffalo.
To do this we have to forgive them a woeful performance at home to Cleveland in week 5 but if we're searching for a positive from that game they did only concede 6 points.

New York Jets return home from two consecutive defeats on the road including a narrow late loss to divisional rivals Miami. Divisional games tend to be tight affairs as rivals try not to concede too much ground to each other and thats one reason why I think a 10 point start for Buffalo will be more than enough.

Taking a look at the team stats for the season so far it's no suprise that The Jets have more rushing yards with 660 to The Bills 588. The overall offensive yardage reads 1488 to New York and 1451 to Buffalo which is only a 37 yard difference over the 5 games. This obviously means that the Bills have put up more passing yards with 863 to The Jets 838.
The Bills have much more sacks with 12 to The Jets' 4 and that shows maybe a weakness in the passing defense of New York which may allow Bills' Quarterback Trent Edwards a little more time and the ability to step into the pocket while searching for Terrell Owens and the like.

In my lines this week I made the Jets 5.5 point favourites and I think that will be much closer to the money, it really should be a tight affair so lets go after Stan James and Coral's money.

1pt Buffalo Bills +10 @ 10/11 with Stan James and Coral.

NBA Preview - By Nick Sharratt

As promised below is a preview of the upcoming NBA season by Nick Sharratt. Look out for more to come from Nick as the season gets underway.

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With the NBA season tipping off on the 28th October, here is one man’s guide to the coming season. There are 5 genuine contenders for the NBA title this year, with one team on the outside looking to break in to the elite group.

LA Lakers 5/2
Cleveland Cavaliers 15/4
Boston Celtics 9/2
Orlando Magic 10/1
San Antonio Spurs 12/1

Portland Trailblazers 25/1

Out of the three short priced favourites, Cleveland is the team I would want to back. Basketball is a sport where an individual can influence a team’s performance more than any other major sport. An injury to a key player can completely derail a team’s season. Boston are sweating on the fitness of all time great Kevin Garnett, who underwent off season knee surgery, so their price especially seems short. The Lakers won it all last year but have injury concerns of their own, with centre Andrew Bynum still forced to wear a knee brace after knee surgeries in consecutive seasons. They also added head case Ron Artest who is known for causing problems on every team he has played on. Cleveland have added Shaquille O’Neal, who though in the twilight of his career, still addresses one of their main weaknesses last season- being unable to defend Orlando’s Dwight Howard. They also have the best basketball player on the planet in Lebron James who is overdue to win his first title. The main issue that threatens to derail the Cav’s this year is Lebron’s impending free agency and whether he will bolt his home town for the bright lights of New York. The longer the season progresses with James still uncommitted the more speculation and pressure will accumulate. The Orlando Magic are a decent price considering they have upgraded their roster in the offseason and are fresh off a trip to the finals. San Antonio has the talent to compete with the very best, as long as they can keep their star players healthy- which has been a problem the last couple of years. At 16/1 they were an appealing bet, but at 12/1 I would wait and see how the season starts- they are notoriously slow starters and their price could drift to something more palatable. Looking at the outsiders, Portland has the best chance of gate crashing the party. They have a young squad who had got their first taste of post season action last year and the experience could prove invaluable. They have also added veteran playmaker Andre Miller who will give their weakest position a boost. In conclusion, Cleveland would be the recommendation for a straight win bet, but Orlando are a great value ew . I will also be keeping a close eye on San Antonio.

On a side note, I will personally be rooting for the Phoenix Suns ,as they are the team I support, but they have a weakened squad due to luxury tax concerns around the salary cap. They will be entertaining to watch and will play all out Run n’ Gun basketball, so I will be keeping a close eye on the total points market in their games with a view to backing the over’s.

Specials

The rookie of the year market appears to have some value, Tyreke Evans of Sacremeto looks a great price 11/1. the kid can score and is going to be the main man from day 1. He could put some very impressive numbers up in a hurry.
Portland at 11/4 to win their division looks a decent bet. Their main rivals are either having internal issues (Utah), or have been weakend in the offseason (Denver).
No prices available at moment but I will be on the lookout for scoring title and assist title prices.

Some over and under season win bets I like:
Phoenix Suns - 41.5 OVER, Sacramento Kings - 24.5 UNDER, Utah Jazz - 49.5 UNDER, New Jersey Nets - 28.5 UNDER, Minnesota Timberwolves - 25.5 OVER.

Week 6 Lines.

I've just about managed to compile the handicap lines for week 6 and they're posted below.

at Minnesota -3.5 Baltimore
Carolina -2.5 @ Tampa Bay
at Green Bay -7.5 Detroit
Houston -3 @ Cincinnati
at Washington -6 Kansas
New York Giants -3 @ New Orleans
Jacksonville -6.5 @ St Louis
Arizona -3.5 @ Seattle
at Philadelphia -12.5 @ Oakland
at New York Jets -5.5 Buffalo
at New England -9.5 Tennesse
at Chicago -3.5 Atlanta

The game that will stand out to fans is the one in Louisianna where the 5-0 New York Giants travel to the 4-0 New Orleans Saints. This one was tough to price up. The Saints are a free throwing, high scoring team with Drew Breez pulling the strings and The Giants look the real deal with a tight D-Line and plenty of options offensively. I think Vegas will favour the home team with a line of -1.5 but I wouldn't want to give the G-Men a start and I make them 3 point favourites.

Two other games that I didn't think straightforward this week were Jacksonville at St Louis and Arizona at Seattle.
St Louis are a poor side who would struggle to cover the kitchen table let alone a handicap but Jacksonville who did have a good win in week 4 come off an absolute hiding at what appears to be a fairly average Seattle team. In the end I gave the Jags just a little less than a touchdown to overcome but wouldn't be suprised if Vegas doubled that.

So to Seattle, whose home form seems reasonable but still look a bit shaky to me. They seem to struggle against a strong O-Line and Arizona have a strong O-Line but they have not reached the heights they did in the post season last term. It's a tough call and it could go either way but for the time being I'm giving Arizona a 3.5 point edge.

I will post the Vegas Lines tomorrow and discuss any differences then as we go in search of the 4th consecutive winner!

X Factor goes live!

My Saturday nights will once again revovle around the television for the forseeable future as the X Factor goes live. There is just too much money to be made trading both the outright and elimination markets "in running" and if I'm honest I actually think it's a really entertaining show.

As in all betting markets research is everything. I have a 13 year old daughter called Hollie who can be invaluable in reality show knowledge. I think it's a great advanatge to find out what the feeling is in the school playground and the informtion of what the kids are talking about has to be considered as they make up a large proportion of voters.

Each week on the show the acts tackle a different artists's work or genre and it is fairly easy to find out in advance what each act will sing. This is a slight edge because not all players on Betfair will be aware of this and if someone has a tricky or awkward number that might not suit them it is well worth taking it on board. I will review any song I'm not sure about through You tube because every effort will help.

It's unlikely I'll be trading too much tonight becasue I would prefer to watch and learn as the acts who are bound to be nervous tackle the live shows for the first time, but I have copied the songs they will sing below so we can preview a few thoughts.

Rachel Adedji - Let me Entertain you
Stacey Solomon - The Scientist
Lucie Joines - Footprints in the Sand
John & Edward - Rock DJ
Miss Frank - Who's Loving You
Kandy Rain - Addicted to Love
Lloyd Daniels - Cry me a River
Rikki Loney - Back to Black
Ollie Murs- She's the One
Danyl Johnson - And I am Telling You
Jamie Archer - Get it On
At the moment I cannot confirm which song Joe McElderry is singing although it is a Robbie Williams track.

So looking at the above I cannot say that I'm pleased with my early punt Rikki's song. It could be a bit of a car crash to be honest but hopefully this will mean he will improve next week! Lloyd Daniels I am told is popular in the school playground but he might murder his number. I think it could be a repeat of last year with Louis having two acts in the bottom two with Kandy Rain and the Twins because they really are weak, but like I said I think tonight is very much a night to watch and learn.

When trading the elimination markets the price fluctuates so much it is really very profitable. The main thing to remember is that Simon really is by far the best judge. Dannii and Cheryl are honest but not in the direct and wholesome way Simon is. Simon will tell it straight whether it be his act or even damaging his chances and he really is very rarely wrong. When Simon heaps praise or criticism then the price will fluctuate madly thereafter. Anytime you can predict his response will leave you in a very strong position.

Enjoy the show tonight, I know I will.

They don't look like Titans...

We go in to week 5 of the season with 2 wins from 2 and I'm determined to keep the run going with a hat trick of victories.

I've thought long and hard about backing Houston this weekend and I may still have a punt on Sunday but for the time being I'm going to leave it.

The bet I am having is on the unbeaten Indianapolis Colts. All the firms have follwed Vegas and made them 3.5 point favourites which I am certain they will cover, in their last meeting in week 17 of 2008 the Colts triumphed 23-0 - albeit the victory meant more to Indianapolis at the time. Tennesse had a great season last year until they blew up in the play offs and they started reasonably well kicking off the season with a narrow overtime loss to the champions Pitsburgh (who have since lost twice). However since then things at Tennesse have gone down hill.

With Tom Brady not back to his form of 2007 I think Peyton Manning is the best QB in the football league, whereas veteran Kerry Collins has been struggling this term so much so that he has recieved the dreaded vote of confidence from his head coach Jeff Fischer, with Vince Young chomping at the bit to take over we may well see a change in the not too distant future. Tennesse have lost so far to Houston, New York Jets and Jacksonville whereas The unbeaten Colts have already won 2 road games including a very convincing win at last years Superbowl finalists Arizona, winning 31-10.

Manning has managed 1336 yards for 9 touchdowns to Collins' 914 yards for 5. In Fact when you look through the stats of both teams so far you cannot find any areas where Tennesse have an edge. They have more rushing yards on the board than Indianapolis but that is due to the confidence of the quarterbacks right now because The Colts far outweigh them on total offensive yardage.

All in all I think it will take a tremendous turnaround at LP Field for Tennesse to turn the tide and beat Indianapolis.

The Colts look a good bet to me at -3.5 10/11. Lets hope Peyton rips them apart to take Nutty Sports to 3-0.

On another sporting note the Baseball play offs are under way and it is going to be an exciting few weeks. There is no aftertiming allowed on this blog so I can't mention the bet I had in May on St Louis, but I have a feeling we will see what is a very strong New York Yankees team take on St Louis Cardinals for this years World Series and I can't wait for the action to get underway.

With the NBA season starting up I will try and convince Nick Sharratt to post some advice and information over the forthcoming season. Nick has a very indepth passion and knowledge for basketball and it would be great to get some of his thoughts up here.

Nick Sharratt has posted the Vegas Lines for week 5 as a comment on my earlier post, but just for clarification and discussion points I've added it below with my lines in brackets;


Minnesota - 10 @ St Louis (10.5)
Dallas -7 @ Kansas City (9.5)
at Carolina -4 Washington (3.5)
at Philadelphia - 14 Tampa Bay (7.5)
at New York Giants -14.5 Oakland (11.5)
at Buffalo -6 Cleveland (6)
at Baltomore -7.5 Cincinati (5.5)
Pitsburgh -9.5 @ Detroit (9.5)
at San Francisco -2.5 Atlanta (3.5)
New England -3.5 @ Denver (1.5)
at Arizona -5.5 Houston (+2.5)
Indianapolis -3.5 @ Tennesse (5.5)
New York Jets -1.5 @ Miami (3.5)

No lines available on Jacksonville @ Seattle as yet.

So what are the differences? As I mentioned earlier I expected Vegas to give Denver a bigger start and have done so with 2 points more. There are a few other differences, for Instance Vegas make New York Giants 14.5 point favourites which is 3 points more than I did. Two things to consider here are that Eli Manning bruised his foot on Sunday and is undergoing a scan and I'd want to know he was 100% fit to play first. However on the flip side Oakland appear to be absolutly dreadful this year so arguements could be made either way.

The biggest difference is an 8 point swing on the Houston/Arizona game. Before I steam in I will keep my mind open, after all I could be wrong in my line. I have a soft spot for the Texans and have backed them for the Superbowl this year. I felt they finished really strongly last season and have a number of top class players. Matt Schaub is a solid QB, Steve Slaton scored twice on Sunday and if he can stop the fumbles really could be a quality RB. I also rate Andre Johnson as a reciever. So why do Vegas think the Cardinals are 5.5 points better?

For starters there will always be a feeling that home advantage counts. Houston are 1-0 on the road beating Tennesse 34-31. It's difficult to tell how good a win this was at the moment because The Titans are 0-4 for the season and appear to be struggling, yet they were no.1 seeds in their conferance last season. The Cardinals had a bye week in week 4 and are 1-2 for the season losing both their home games (San Francisco and Indianapolis). Their sole win coming in Jacksonville. The Cards are capable of putting points on the board (as are the Texans) with Kurt Warner still plying his trade very well and obviously Larry Fitzgerald is one of the top recievers. I do have concerns over their ability to run the ball - they appear to be using Tim Hightower as their main Running Back and as good as he is he wouldn't be my no.1 choice.
There is too much uncertainity in this match for a bet, although I will be looking at the total points market when it's available because this one could well be a high scoring game.

I made Indianapolis 5.5 points favourites and Vegas have gone 3.5. The colts are 4-0 and The Titans are 0-4 so this could well be a bet. I know it's only a 2 point swing, but with Peyton Manning in form it could be a rout. I was concerned about the Colts with the changes they made on their coaching staff but this appears not to have affected them at all. If this game was in Indianapolis I'm sure the line would be nearer 7.5. So does the Titans home advantage count that much?
The game is next Monday and so far only Corals and Bet365 have a line (although both firms just copy Vegas) so I will wait a day or two before making a decision.

Another team who had a bye week are Philadelphia. They face Tampa this weekend and Vegas differs from me on this game by 6 points giving The Buccanners a 14 point start. That may be a little big but having seen how Tampa conceded 16 points in the 3rd quarter against a weak Washington offense on Sunday wouldn't have me backing them again in a hurry. It may be my line was a bit low but time will tell as the markets take shape through the week.

I'd expect a post with my weekly bet(s) might not be so early this week but I'm sure I'll have deciphered something by Thursday....

Week 5 NFL Lines

Not a bad weekend all in all. I must start with mentioning what was a scrappy but great win for Rangers in the Old Firm Derby at Ibrox yesterday. The defending all round left a lot to be desired but two well taken goals from Kenny Miller were enough in the end.

Anyway, back to the serious business, Tampa started well leading 10-0 at half time and although Washington made a match of it scoring 16 points in the 3rd quarter they were unable to cover the 7.5 handicap leaving us with a 2nd successive winning bet. I said in the post that I made Washington 3.5 point favourites and that turned out to be pretty much on the money as the score ended 16-13. I noticed late on Sunday Blue Square took a view against the rest of the firms and went Washington -9 at 4/5. Very brave of them but perhaps they should be reading this ;o).

I also mentioned Jacksonville last week and the swing of 5.5 points between my line and that of Vegas. I had made The Jaguars 3.5 point favourites whereas Vegas gave them a 2 point start. The Jags won the game comfortably leaving The Titans at 0-4 and they really do look like a completely different franchise than last season.

Other pointers of the week - San Francisco smashed St Louis even without the injured Frank Gore and I think pricing up St Louis both on the money Line and the point spread will be tougher in weeks to come because they are so bad.

As always on a Monday morning I have compiled the point spread on the forthcoming weekend's matches. I like to get them up early so I can compare with Vegas and then the firms as and when they publish.

Week 5.

at Baltimore -5.5 Cincinatti
at Buffalo - 6 Cleveland
Pitsburgh -9.5 at Detroit
at Carolina -3.5 Washington
Dallas -7.5 at Kansas
at Philadelphia -7.5 Tampa
Minnesota -10.5 at St Louis
at New York Giants -11.5 Oakland
at San Francisco -3.5 Atlanta
Houston -2.5 at Arizona
New England -1.5 at Denver
Jacksonville -4.5 at Seattle
Indianapolis -5.5 at Tennesse
New York Jets -3.5 at Miami

As always I will be interested to see what Vegas have done. There are a few interesting games next week and one or two that I struggled with. New England at Denver is tricky. The firms always like to keep New England on their side and I'm sure they will give them a bigger handicap than I have but I like Denver so far and New England are not the force they were two season ago.

Hopefully I will have a bet in the next day or two, until then, be lucky.

Opening Gambit

I've often thought about recording things like poker results or betting P&L on a blog and never really had a reason to do it.

Of late I have been sending emails around to a select number of friends and colleagues with some betting information and also my views and selections. With the American Football season just underway (week 4 complete) I thought, rather than send an email I'll post my views here for nobody to see ;o)

As some may know, I enjoy deciphering reality TV shows and have proved quite successful at it in the past I won't bore you with details because I'm determined this blog will not include any aftertiming!

So there have been 3 emails sent thus far. As we go to press 2 of them are very much alive, although the 2nd of the 3 was a winner.

I am going to start the blog of with posting these 3 emails for my records if nothing else - it all counts towards the annual P&L.

The first one was an advanced thought on the X-Factor series.

Email sent: 23rd september 2009

Lets start with an unfortunate admission - It looks very much like Daniel Pearce has failed to progress from Judges houses to the live shows. I thought there might be a danger that because he'd been there before that they wouldn't risk him again and would choose the option of giving someone else a shout.

So we need to get busy to recoup any losses. Personally I find trading the eliminations is a simple and very profitable method and I'll be doing that as soon as it starts. There are a lack of girl contestants this year so anybody that stands out in the girls category should make the final on the basis that they will want to keep it as mixed as possible.

There has also been some absolutely ludicrous selections for the final 12 this year. Louis being the wrongun that he is has only gone and picked those two lads from the first show - John and Edward - ahead of Mis Fitz who if you recall did that different version of Toxic. But Louis will always choose and Irish act because, well he's Louis.

Anyways, they obviously can't win, but lets not forget really bad acts have the habit of holding on for a bit.

Here are the final 12 and their mentors: Simon Cowell, Over 25s: Danyl Johnson, Jamie Archer, Ollie Murs.

Cheryl Cole, Boys:Joe Mcelderry, Lloyd Daniels, Rikki Loney.

Dannii Minogue, Girls:Lucie Jones, Stacey Solomon, Rachel Adedji.

Louis Walsh, Groups:F R A N K, Kandy Rain, John & Edward. As you can see Louis has given himself no chance and is relying on a few ex strippers. Cheryl has picked a couple of lads from the North East (suprise, suprise) and the Scottish guy Rikki who went to the judges houses last year.

Simon has already said he should have picked him instead of another of his acts last year, he will pick up Scottish votes (he loves his mum you know) and they have been relentless when voting for their own in previous years - that Leon Jackson was helped enormously by them as he was no way the better singer (he beat Rydian) and who can forget the fat warbler Michelle McManus albeit under the Pop Idol guise.

Rikki has to be considered, best price is currently 25/1 with corals, Betfred and Bsq and I wouldn't put you off a few quid because i'm sure he'll get shorter. I'm a layer of Danyl Johnson (the jolly) I think he's going to peak to soon and the winner really needs to improve every week.

He has also started to receive a bit of bad press because his ex-manager of a band he was in is being done for fraudulently taking the money he raised for their single that was never released.

Jamie Archer is decent - he sang Sex on Fire, by Kings of Leon but I anticipate the judges calling him a one trick pony fairly quickly. Ollie Murs is the likeliest candidate to do well from Simon's group - Robbie Williams is already a fan. He has a unique soulful sound to him and he is a bit of a cheeky cockney type - i'd imagine the girls will vote in there droves. A general best price of 6/1 doesn't do it for me, so i'll be waiting for Betfair to form a market in an attempt to get 8s.

I really don't like Dannii's chances this year. 19 year old East London single mother Stacey is average at best, be prepared for lots of tears and shots of her with said child and how much of a better life she wants for it.

Lucie Jones is that 18 year old Welsh lass who I am certain will struggle with big numbers. I just can't see her going deep - she is too young and her voice hasn't developed enough yet. The last in that category is Rachel Adedji. She is 17 now - she made it to boot camp last year so she has definitly progressed. For my money her voice is stronger than Lucie's and therefore may be the last girl standing - but I won't be having a punt on anyone from Dannii's category.

I'm not going to spend anytime on Louis' category.

recommendations:1pt Rikki Loney 25/1

Ollie Murs on BF when available.

Following this email I sent what was my first NFL advice of the season in week 3;

Email sent: 27th September 2009

The season has only just got under way but already a few things are obvious. Oakland scraped past an awful Kansas side last week with a 2 minute drive with 2 minutes to go having been shut out for 58 minutes. Shut out that is by the Chiefs!

In comparison Denver dominated for large periods last week against Cleveland (who for my money are far better than Kansas) winning 27-6. Oakland QB Ja Marcuss Russell has only completed 35% of passes in the 2 games thus far whereas his opposite number Kyle Orton is over 50% in pass completion and actually ranks first in the NFL for 4th quarter pass rating.

Broncos WR needs 40 yards more to reach 3,000 career recieving yards and he might find the Raiders D-Line quite accomodating. This looks like a great opportunity for Denver to go 3 and 0 for the season. There is 5/6 available with extra-bet for them to win the match and that's the bet. although Denver -1 with the bigger firms is available at the same price.

1pt Denver Broncos 5/6

That email is as close to aftertiming that I will come, but I want to keep it for records and there were dozens of people who can verify it was sent in plenty of time.

To finish my first post I have this weekends NFL advice. I regularly discuss the gridiron action with Nick Sharratt and on a Monday after we have compiled our handicap lines for the forthcoming weeks action we will often confer before checking out what Vegas has produced. There were a few possibilities this weekend - for instance Frank Gore the star 49ers reciever is out and they were giving the Rams a 10.5 start. We both thought it too big but neither of us could muster up the heart to back what is an atrocious St Louis side.

Likewise I was tempted by a bet on Jacksonville who are hosting Tennesse. The titans have suprisingly gone 0 and 3 for the season and I made Jacksonville ever so slight favourites but Vegas (and therefore most firms *sigh*) gave the jags a 2 point start. I probably should have a bet and I might after checking the days team news but i'm by noway certain.

Which leads me to the one bet I have had this week, the email was sent on Monday 29th September.

A good start last week with an easy win for Denver could be followed up here by the firms overplaying the Redskins home form.

Washington lost at Detroit last week to a team that had previously gone 19 loses in a row and had a rookie QB looking for his first win in the top flight. How much of a shock was it - well I wasn't on but it does go someway to highlight the problems at Washington.

There is a lot of pressure on coach Jim Zorn with the majority of fans calling for a change and the players don't seem to know what is expected of them at the moment. Tampa haven't had a great start and are 0-3 so far. They were shut out by the Giants at Meadowlands last week but have still put more points on the board in their first 2 games (against Dallas and Buffalo) than Washington have in their 3 games to date.

The Giants are looking very strong this season even without Plaxico so it's not the worst paper performance from a franchise that we will see this season. When I did my handicap lines this week I made the Redskins 3.5 point favourites and Nick Sharratt whose opinion I value only made them 1 point favourites. Paddy Power and Corals are giving Tampa a 7.5 point start and that is good enough for me to invest.

It might not be the prettiest ball game of the season but I can't see Washington covering that line, their only victory of the season thus far being a dissmal 9-7 win over a very poor 0 and 3 St Louis side who have conceded 64 points in their other 2 games.

1pt Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 10/11.

Ok, so that was a lengthy first post. In future I shall be posting my NFL lines each Monday morning and openly comparing them to Vegas while discussing any differences. Any more bets will also be posted.

Happy punting.