It looks like I've picked up a fan by the name of Jersey Dan.
I thought I'd start a post for the first time with a little rhyme. In fact that's two now so I'm going to stop.
I received a comment on my "Season ROI" post from a guy calling himself Jersey Dan. While writing a blog that is open to everyone I of course leave myself open to criticism and that's fine. Nobody could top the stick I received when I ventured to Flushy's house a while back anyway.
However, while I accept and and even welcome views from others what I will not accept is accusations that are not true. Jersey Dan claims that I have been changing my picks during game time. Now this is absurd. As many of you know - my readers basically consist of a few friends and ex-colleagues - when I have posted a bet I have done so well before game time and advertised the fact via Facebook and Twitter and on occasions via email. I have placed the bets myself and I know some of you have followed me in on occasion, so editing the post would not only be pointless but it would be highlighted. In fact on a few occasions when I have discussed my bets and thoughts on the the NFL thread on www.blondepoker.com nobody has at any stage thought I have changed my picks.
Jersey Dan doesn't explain why he thinks I have changed my picks, and offers no evidence. The only thing I know about him is that he opened a twitter account for the sole purpose of replying to one of my tweets. Dan claims that my blog is now a place where he and his buddies like to go to have a laugh. I doubt this, I really do, can you see someone who sets up a blog and a twitter account just to make false accusations having any buddies? No, neither do I.
I appreciate your comments Dan and I continue to welcome them, but please support them with evidence in the future or why not show off your ability in finding winners by explaining why you agree/disagree with my thoughts in the comments section below each post.
18.54% ROI is nothing to crow about whatsoever, especially having given 7 consecutive winning picks at the start of the season. I will continue to blog for if nothing else a way to record my profit and loss and I am not going to try and kid myself in the process.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Season ROI
So that's it, no more football for six months.
The Superbowl was probably a little disappointing in many people's eyes because so much was expected. We never saw the shootout spectacle that we all anticipated but I'm sure the people of New Orleans won't care one little bit.
It seems ironic really after all the talk about Peyton Manning being the best of all time that it was he that was picked off for the decisive play.
Drew Brees quite rightly won the MVP award but it could have been so different. Our 25/1 tip (tipped up in the Racing Post at 20/1) started very well. Joseph Addai rushed for 77 yards and 1 touchdown and an Indianapolis win may well have seen him take the award.
The next action us NFL fans have is the draft and I may well draw up some ideas of what each team will be looking for nearer the time. Before that though we do have the start of Major League Baseball and I will post a preview of the season with some ante-post bets as we prepare to tackle the bookies once again. At the moment only World Series prices are available so when the firms publish the rest of their markets I will be ready to pounce.
So how did we do betting wise? I was disappointed with our regular season figure of 20.6% ROI and we didn't improve in the post season.
We had a nice touch when The Jets beat The Chargers but had Green Bay beaten Arizona things would have been so different. Our Post Season figures are even less appealing returning 18%.
When toting up all bets for both the regular and post seasons our ROI stands at 18.54%.
It is a profit, of course - but we wouldn't expect anything less. Lets hope the new MLB season brings richer rewards. There is also a new season of Britain's Got Talent on the horizon so hopefully we can follow up on last years 25/1 success.
The Superbowl was probably a little disappointing in many people's eyes because so much was expected. We never saw the shootout spectacle that we all anticipated but I'm sure the people of New Orleans won't care one little bit.
It seems ironic really after all the talk about Peyton Manning being the best of all time that it was he that was picked off for the decisive play.
Drew Brees quite rightly won the MVP award but it could have been so different. Our 25/1 tip (tipped up in the Racing Post at 20/1) started very well. Joseph Addai rushed for 77 yards and 1 touchdown and an Indianapolis win may well have seen him take the award.
The next action us NFL fans have is the draft and I may well draw up some ideas of what each team will be looking for nearer the time. Before that though we do have the start of Major League Baseball and I will post a preview of the season with some ante-post bets as we prepare to tackle the bookies once again. At the moment only World Series prices are available so when the firms publish the rest of their markets I will be ready to pounce.
So how did we do betting wise? I was disappointed with our regular season figure of 20.6% ROI and we didn't improve in the post season.
We had a nice touch when The Jets beat The Chargers but had Green Bay beaten Arizona things would have been so different. Our Post Season figures are even less appealing returning 18%.
When toting up all bets for both the regular and post seasons our ROI stands at 18.54%.
It is a profit, of course - but we wouldn't expect anything less. Lets hope the new MLB season brings richer rewards. There is also a new season of Britain's Got Talent on the horizon so hopefully we can follow up on last years 25/1 success.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Superbowl!
This is a long overdue post, but I have been fairly busy and sometimes it is difficult to find the time to write but we do have the Greatest Show on Earth coming up and a few interest bets at least need placing.
I said I expected the line on New Orleans to shorten and it has in the main, pretty much all firms go +4.5 from +5.5. I won't be on it though, I can see the Saints scoring regularly but I can't see them stopping Peyton Manning who in my opinion will score at will. The Saints will put up some numbers too and that's why my first interest bet will be on the overs. The line currently is 56.6 although ToteSport go 55.5 so we'll shop there.
0.5pt Total points over 55.5 @ 10/11 ToteSport.
It's far more fun chasing the overs, at least we can hope for the game it promises to be. My next bets surround the MVP market. Manning is odds on for this and perhaps rightly so, but we can't for one minute expect that to be a value bet. Instead I am going to back two running backs at big prices. Again, these are small interest bets so no need to go mad.
First up is Reggie Bush, who had an incredible individual performance against Arizona, anything similar and he will win the award. The Saints use him regularly on all downs and he also plays a big part on Special Teams so he has every chance. Paddy Power are a stand out best price 20/1.
The other running back we will be investing in is Joseph Addai, he is the main man at Indianapolis and will also be used for receiving in the red zone. A couple of touchdowns from him could seal the award. Addai is as short as 7/1 in a place and the Magic Sign make him 9/1 but for reasons best known to themselves Paddy Power make him 25/1. Take it before they wake up from their stupor.
0.5pt Joseph Addai 25/1 MVP
0.5pt Reggie Bush 20/1 MVP both Paddy Power.
Apologies for the short post, but I am currently 4 tabling 90 man sngs on Stars. Enjoy the game, it really should be a cracker. I'll have a review up sometime next week which will include a season ROI discussion.
I said I expected the line on New Orleans to shorten and it has in the main, pretty much all firms go +4.5 from +5.5. I won't be on it though, I can see the Saints scoring regularly but I can't see them stopping Peyton Manning who in my opinion will score at will. The Saints will put up some numbers too and that's why my first interest bet will be on the overs. The line currently is 56.6 although ToteSport go 55.5 so we'll shop there.
0.5pt Total points over 55.5 @ 10/11 ToteSport.
It's far more fun chasing the overs, at least we can hope for the game it promises to be. My next bets surround the MVP market. Manning is odds on for this and perhaps rightly so, but we can't for one minute expect that to be a value bet. Instead I am going to back two running backs at big prices. Again, these are small interest bets so no need to go mad.
First up is Reggie Bush, who had an incredible individual performance against Arizona, anything similar and he will win the award. The Saints use him regularly on all downs and he also plays a big part on Special Teams so he has every chance. Paddy Power are a stand out best price 20/1.
The other running back we will be investing in is Joseph Addai, he is the main man at Indianapolis and will also be used for receiving in the red zone. A couple of touchdowns from him could seal the award. Addai is as short as 7/1 in a place and the Magic Sign make him 9/1 but for reasons best known to themselves Paddy Power make him 25/1. Take it before they wake up from their stupor.
0.5pt Joseph Addai 25/1 MVP
0.5pt Reggie Bush 20/1 MVP both Paddy Power.
Apologies for the short post, but I am currently 4 tabling 90 man sngs on Stars. Enjoy the game, it really should be a cracker. I'll have a review up sometime next week which will include a season ROI discussion.
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