It is obviously going to be hard to mention every player that has had a good season but before I talk about the 5 that have made my shortlist I thought I'd briefly discuss a few others that have caught my eye for one reason or another.
I'll start with players who have not lived up to expectations this season and 2 that spring to mind would be Steve Slaton of Houston and Matt Forte of Chicago.
A lot was expected from both players in their second season in the NFL but I felt neither really fulfilled the potential that was expected. I know Slaton is now on the IR list but his early fumbles cost him his place in the side during the year and gave opportunities to Ryan Moats and Chris Brown. When healthy Slaton may well return and live up to the promise but 2009 was not his year.
Similarly with Matt Forte, he was high on many fantasy teams wish lists as some thought Jay Cutler was going to make The Bears a force but it really wasn't to be. Forte drifted in and out of form. His 3.4 yards per carry will not be what he was looking for and he is ranked 20th overall with total rushing yards of 827, compare this to his rookie season in 2008 when he notched up 1,238 and things have not progressed for Forte or Chicago.
A few names that I'd like to mention positively are Rashad Mendenhall who has had a solid season for Pittsburgh breaking the 1000 yard mark and has really made the RB position his own in the last few weeks.
Denver found a peach in rookie Knoshon Moreno who has managed 897 yards averaging 3.8 a carry and he looks like he will offer the Broncos a lot more in seasons to come.
Deangelo Williams will feature in a lot of top 5's but due to recent injuries he is just going to miss out. Carolina have a wealth of talent at RB, I think Jonathan Stewart could walk into any NFL team and play a big part it just seems unfortunate for him that he has Williams to compete with.
Both Stewart and Williams have more than 1000 yards on the board and if the Panthers can plug a few holes in the off season they really must be a force next year.
Adrian Peterson is regarded by many as the best RB in the football league, but he misses out narrowly from my top 5. Yes at 17 touchdowns he has scored more than any other RB but he is the go to man for a strong Vikings team. He is 400+ yards down on last season and has made 6 fumbles, more than any other RB ranked in the top 60.
Cedric Benson has also had a great season for Cincinnati but he too misses out on the top 5. Benson has 1,251 yards this season which is more than he has scored in his 4 previous seasons combined, he has had a big hand in the Bengals improvement and I expect he will be even better next season when he may find himself closer to that elusive Nuttie.
So the top 5 in no particular order, Chris Johnson (Tennessee), Steven Jackson (St Louis), Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville), Ryan Grant (Green Bay) & Ray Rice (Baltimore).
Obviously all 5 have had tremendous seasons and surprisingly only one has secured post season football (Grant) although Rice will be hopeful of a wildcard spot still.
Considering how poor St Louis have been it is a sign of Jackson's talent that he has notched up 1,353 yards at an average of 4.5 a carry. Likewise, Jones-Drew at Jacksonville has been responsible for a lot of their good work this season notching 1,309 yards at an average of 4.4 a carry. Both players have produced career high years and will be solid choices for fantasy teams again next year.
However in 3rd place this season we have Ray Rice of Baltimore, in his 2nd season Rice has rushed for 1,269 yards at an average of 5.3 a carry scoring 7 touchdowns. A great improvement on his rookie year where he managed only 454 yards. Baltimore have unearthed yet another quality RB.
In 2nd place we have Ryan Grant. Grant may be ranked as low as 8th in the NFL with 1,202 but his form has played a big part in The Packers progress this year and his consistency has resulted in zero fumbles. Grant has also contributed 10 touchdowns thus far.
And therefore the winner is Chris Johnson. Quite a straightforward choice I'm sure you will agree. Johnson has been incredible this season and needs only 128 more yards against Seattle on Sunday to break the 2000 barrier. I wouldn't bet against him either. The fastest man in the NFL has averaged 5.8 yards per carry has scored 12 touchdowns and fumbled only twice from 322 attempts. I am sure you will agree Chris Johnson is a very worthy winner of the first Nuttie.
Tomorrow the wide receivers will be on edge as they await the Nuttie announcement.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
The Nutties
The less said about the last bet the better and I'm not getting involved this week as it will be difficult to be sure of who will be playing and who will be rested. On top of that it will be a crucial last week for all the teams chasing the AFC Wildcard spots.
Basically there are five teams in the AFC with 8 & 7 records and only 2 Wildcard spots. As someone who has a big priced ante-post docket with Houston written on it I will be praying that they can somehow sneak in. The other teams involved are New York Jets, Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. There are a lot of possible outcomes and it will make for a great final days viewing.
Moving on from the action and I have decided to review the players performances this season in way of an inaugural Nutty Sports awards from now on known as "The Nutties". We will have awards for the following,
Quarterback of the year
Running Back of the year
Wide Receiver of the year
Tightend of the year
Rookie of the year
Of course the D-Line will miss out but they are used to it I'm sure. I will be kicking of with a review of the position I fancy I'd have played in my youth, running back. The review will start tomorrow and there will be one a day for the next 5 days which will coincide nicely with the end of the regular season.
Please feel free to post your comments or views whether you agree or disagree with any of the nominations and award winners.
Basically there are five teams in the AFC with 8 & 7 records and only 2 Wildcard spots. As someone who has a big priced ante-post docket with Houston written on it I will be praying that they can somehow sneak in. The other teams involved are New York Jets, Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. There are a lot of possible outcomes and it will make for a great final days viewing.
Moving on from the action and I have decided to review the players performances this season in way of an inaugural Nutty Sports awards from now on known as "The Nutties". We will have awards for the following,
Quarterback of the year
Running Back of the year
Wide Receiver of the year
Tightend of the year
Rookie of the year
Of course the D-Line will miss out but they are used to it I'm sure. I will be kicking of with a review of the position I fancy I'd have played in my youth, running back. The review will start tomorrow and there will be one a day for the next 5 days which will coincide nicely with the end of the regular season.
Please feel free to post your comments or views whether you agree or disagree with any of the nominations and award winners.
Friday, December 25, 2009
A Week 16 Bet.
It may be Christmas day but punters have to work all the year round especially when there is a cracking line up of fixtures this weekend.
While everyone else is preparing dinner and trying to find space in their cupboards for all the new gifts Nutty Sports is doing something far more constructive. Searching for another winner.
There were a few match ups that were close to a bet this week but in the end I have decided that Atlanta will not cover the 9 point start credited to Buffalo.
Falcons' Quarterback Matt Ryan has been suffering with injuries and has again been limited in practise this week. Even if he does play he will not be 100% and they will not have worked through as many drills and plays as Head Coach Mike Smith would have liked. They are not going to make the play offs this year and at 7 & 7 the only thing they can play for is another winning record.
Although Jason Snelling has filled in well, star running back Michael Turner has had ongoing problems with his ankle and may be rested again in order to get him fit when there is little to play for.
Atlanta are notoriously weak on pass defense and they are ranked 30th in the NFL conceding an average of 254.8. Any O-Line would be confident of putting up some yaradge against them.
Buffalo may not be highly ranked offensively but this is a prime opportunity for them to change that. Although inconsistent The Bills have put up some tremendous performances this season including good wins against Miami, Carolina and New York and have twice kept it very close against New England.
I made the Falcons 7.5 point favourites and felt that was on the high end, my initial thoughts were less than a touchdown. So why is the spread so big? Purely because of the doubt as to who will play at quarterback for Buffalo. If Trent Edwards were fit the spread would be around 5.5 points in my opinion. Ryan Fitzpatrick also injured his ankle covering for Edwards last week and it looks as if 3rd string Brian Brohm might get the nod.
Brohm is eager to get his chance, having been drafted by Green Bay in 2008 following a highly successful High School and College career he was picked up by the Bills in November. He has been very patient in waiting for a first start in the NFL and it couldn't come against a more accommodating team. It might be taking a chance on a rookie Quarterback but I don't see there being anything like 9 points in it.
1pt Buffalo +9 10/11 Generally.
While everyone else is preparing dinner and trying to find space in their cupboards for all the new gifts Nutty Sports is doing something far more constructive. Searching for another winner.
There were a few match ups that were close to a bet this week but in the end I have decided that Atlanta will not cover the 9 point start credited to Buffalo.
Falcons' Quarterback Matt Ryan has been suffering with injuries and has again been limited in practise this week. Even if he does play he will not be 100% and they will not have worked through as many drills and plays as Head Coach Mike Smith would have liked. They are not going to make the play offs this year and at 7 & 7 the only thing they can play for is another winning record.
Although Jason Snelling has filled in well, star running back Michael Turner has had ongoing problems with his ankle and may be rested again in order to get him fit when there is little to play for.
Atlanta are notoriously weak on pass defense and they are ranked 30th in the NFL conceding an average of 254.8. Any O-Line would be confident of putting up some yaradge against them.
Buffalo may not be highly ranked offensively but this is a prime opportunity for them to change that. Although inconsistent The Bills have put up some tremendous performances this season including good wins against Miami, Carolina and New York and have twice kept it very close against New England.
I made the Falcons 7.5 point favourites and felt that was on the high end, my initial thoughts were less than a touchdown. So why is the spread so big? Purely because of the doubt as to who will play at quarterback for Buffalo. If Trent Edwards were fit the spread would be around 5.5 points in my opinion. Ryan Fitzpatrick also injured his ankle covering for Edwards last week and it looks as if 3rd string Brian Brohm might get the nod.
Brohm is eager to get his chance, having been drafted by Green Bay in 2008 following a highly successful High School and College career he was picked up by the Bills in November. He has been very patient in waiting for a first start in the NFL and it couldn't come against a more accommodating team. It might be taking a chance on a rookie Quarterback but I don't see there being anything like 9 points in it.
1pt Buffalo +9 10/11 Generally.
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Week 16.
Week 16 starts on Christmas night with San Diego travelling to Tennessee and ends on Monday when Minnesota take on Chicago.
I have compiled my lines for the fixtures in hope of finding a bet that will finally take us into double figures.
at Tennessee -3 San Diego
at Atlanta -7.5 Buffalo
at Cincinnati -11 Kansas
at Cleveland -3.5 Oakland
at Green Bay -12 Seattle
at Miami -2.5 Houston
at Pittsburgh -1.5 Baltimore
at New York Giants -5.5 Carolina
at New England -9 Jacksonville
at New Orleans -12 Tampa Bay
at Arizona -10.5 St Louis
at San Francisco -7.5 Detroit
at Philadelphia -6 Denver
at Indianapolis -5.5 New York Jets
Dallas -6 at Washington
Minnesota -6 a Chicago
As Christmas bores the life out of me (enough is enough can't we cancel it from now on please?) I will spend the next day or so studying the match ups as well as playing quite a bit of online poker. Hopefully I'll have a bet and a win to report in the next day or so.
I have compiled my lines for the fixtures in hope of finding a bet that will finally take us into double figures.
at Tennessee -3 San Diego
at Atlanta -7.5 Buffalo
at Cincinnati -11 Kansas
at Cleveland -3.5 Oakland
at Green Bay -12 Seattle
at Miami -2.5 Houston
at Pittsburgh -1.5 Baltimore
at New York Giants -5.5 Carolina
at New England -9 Jacksonville
at New Orleans -12 Tampa Bay
at Arizona -10.5 St Louis
at San Francisco -7.5 Detroit
at Philadelphia -6 Denver
at Indianapolis -5.5 New York Jets
Dallas -6 at Washington
Minnesota -6 a Chicago
As Christmas bores the life out of me (enough is enough can't we cancel it from now on please?) I will spend the next day or so studying the match ups as well as playing quite a bit of online poker. Hopefully I'll have a bet and a win to report in the next day or so.
Monday, December 21, 2009
Tilt.
Sometimes life is sent to try us. Maybe we rode our luck in the early part of the season but last night's bet on Green Bay was tortuous.
Forget the fact that Pittsburgh's last minute drive from deep in their own territory was converted into a touchdown as the time ran out. Forget the fact they completed on 4th and 12 during this drive, forget the fact the review booth had to check that the touchdown was completed within time due to there being only a few seconds on the clock when they snapped the decisive ball.
The hardest bit of luck was that The Steelers who had lost 5 of their last 6 found some incredible form. Ben Roethislberger threw a career high 503 yards and 3 touchdowns and they still only won by a point.
We have every right to feel aggrieved but I still think at the price it was the correct bet. It does now take Nutty Sports to 8 & 4 having been 7 & 0 so we here at Nutty Towers might have to get a smaller turkey this year and cut back on the brandy butter.
There were some incredible matches last night and a good few surprises. The match in San Diego where the Chargers faced off against Cincinnati was a cracker. So soon after the terrible news of Chris Henry's death the game was a fitting tribute to the late wide receiver with Chad Ochocinco dedicating his incredible touchdown to Henry's memory.
The Giants face Washington tonight in a crucial divisional battle. New York will have to win out to have any sort of chance of securing a play off spot but Washington have been playing hard football the last few weeks and will offer real resistance. Unfortunately none of the UK channels have secured the rights for Monday Night Football this season so watching it online is the only solution. I will however be trying to get out of it with a bet on New York -3. They really need to win and they performed well in what was a tremendous shoot out match against The Eagles last weekend. If they play that well again they will beat the Redskins comfortably.
Our next game is on Christmas night so if I don't manage a post before then, Nutty Sports would like to wish you all a very Merry Christmas.
1pt New York Giants -3 11/10 Stan James.
Forget the fact that Pittsburgh's last minute drive from deep in their own territory was converted into a touchdown as the time ran out. Forget the fact they completed on 4th and 12 during this drive, forget the fact the review booth had to check that the touchdown was completed within time due to there being only a few seconds on the clock when they snapped the decisive ball.
The hardest bit of luck was that The Steelers who had lost 5 of their last 6 found some incredible form. Ben Roethislberger threw a career high 503 yards and 3 touchdowns and they still only won by a point.
We have every right to feel aggrieved but I still think at the price it was the correct bet. It does now take Nutty Sports to 8 & 4 having been 7 & 0 so we here at Nutty Towers might have to get a smaller turkey this year and cut back on the brandy butter.
There were some incredible matches last night and a good few surprises. The match in San Diego where the Chargers faced off against Cincinnati was a cracker. So soon after the terrible news of Chris Henry's death the game was a fitting tribute to the late wide receiver with Chad Ochocinco dedicating his incredible touchdown to Henry's memory.
The Giants face Washington tonight in a crucial divisional battle. New York will have to win out to have any sort of chance of securing a play off spot but Washington have been playing hard football the last few weeks and will offer real resistance. Unfortunately none of the UK channels have secured the rights for Monday Night Football this season so watching it online is the only solution. I will however be trying to get out of it with a bet on New York -3. They really need to win and they performed well in what was a tremendous shoot out match against The Eagles last weekend. If they play that well again they will beat the Redskins comfortably.
Our next game is on Christmas night so if I don't manage a post before then, Nutty Sports would like to wish you all a very Merry Christmas.
1pt New York Giants -3 11/10 Stan James.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Back with a Bet.
As planned I've had a week off and as it turned out it was a fairly busy one. I've been viewing countless flats in order to re-locate for my new job and I've been popping into work to organise a few things before I officially start.
However, the punting must continue and I am backing Green Bay at 11/10 to beat Pittsburgh this weekend.
The Steelers have blown all chances of post season football and with that the opportunity to defend their crown. They have lost 5 out of the last 6 matches including a loss to a weak Cleveland side last weekend.
Green Bay on the other hand are very much in the frame for the play offs and in Aaron Rodgers they may have unearthed another star Quarterback. He has plenty of options too with the likes of Donald Driver and Greg Jennings.
Green Bay are ranked 9th for passing yards in the NFL with an average of 254.2 per game (7th with 374.4 total yardage) and The Steelers are ranked 13th with 209.2 for pass defense. Considering the Steelers who are ranked 4th overall are known for their powerful D-Line this does show signs of how The Packers should attack and therefore win the ball game.
If it comes down to who wants it more The packers with their eye on a deep post season run should have far too much for what looks like a demoralised Steeler team.
Lets hope we can bounce back from the break with a decent win at odds against.
1pt Green Bay 11/10 Generally
However, the punting must continue and I am backing Green Bay at 11/10 to beat Pittsburgh this weekend.
The Steelers have blown all chances of post season football and with that the opportunity to defend their crown. They have lost 5 out of the last 6 matches including a loss to a weak Cleveland side last weekend.
Green Bay on the other hand are very much in the frame for the play offs and in Aaron Rodgers they may have unearthed another star Quarterback. He has plenty of options too with the likes of Donald Driver and Greg Jennings.
Green Bay are ranked 9th for passing yards in the NFL with an average of 254.2 per game (7th with 374.4 total yardage) and The Steelers are ranked 13th with 209.2 for pass defense. Considering the Steelers who are ranked 4th overall are known for their powerful D-Line this does show signs of how The Packers should attack and therefore win the ball game.
If it comes down to who wants it more The packers with their eye on a deep post season run should have far too much for what looks like a demoralised Steeler team.
Lets hope we can bounce back from the break with a decent win at odds against.
1pt Green Bay 11/10 Generally
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
A Week Off.
I've been feeling a little jaded lately so I am going to have a bet free week. I will of course watch the NFL on Sky but I won't be compiling any lines or having any bets.
Sometimes when things aren't going well it is best to stand back and just enjoy the games. My fantasy team got beat meaning I miss the play offs so I can watch the matches as a neutral this week and just enjoy the spectacle.
This time last year Nutty Sports made a killing on Miss World and X Factor. As I mentioned before it was very difficult to get on Miss World this year because the firms were running scared. However Miss Puerta Rico will be crowned on Saturday and we still have bits and pieces on. If you haven't had a bet - Betfred are still offering 9/4 and while I hate to recommend bets at that price when 20/1 was available - you are pretty much buying money.
The X Factor final is also on Saturday and if the rumours are to be believed we still have a great chance with Olly. I mentioned previously that partnering him with Robbie Williams would be an excellent move and it appears Simon reads this blog because it is thought that Robbie will duet with Olly this week. Of course I will confirm nearer the time, but his price is shortening as we speak.
I have decided to return to work and have accepted another job in the betting industry. I won't talk much about it on here as this blog only represents my personal views but I am quite excited by the new and challenging role. It will mean relocating but only to the other side of London and not to Gibraltar again.
I plan to relax this weekend and may well play a little bit of Poker instead of the usual NFL studying. Hopefully I will feel refreshed and ready to tackle it again next week.
In the meantime, good luck to you if you're having a bet.
Sometimes when things aren't going well it is best to stand back and just enjoy the games. My fantasy team got beat meaning I miss the play offs so I can watch the matches as a neutral this week and just enjoy the spectacle.
This time last year Nutty Sports made a killing on Miss World and X Factor. As I mentioned before it was very difficult to get on Miss World this year because the firms were running scared. However Miss Puerta Rico will be crowned on Saturday and we still have bits and pieces on. If you haven't had a bet - Betfred are still offering 9/4 and while I hate to recommend bets at that price when 20/1 was available - you are pretty much buying money.
The X Factor final is also on Saturday and if the rumours are to be believed we still have a great chance with Olly. I mentioned previously that partnering him with Robbie Williams would be an excellent move and it appears Simon reads this blog because it is thought that Robbie will duet with Olly this week. Of course I will confirm nearer the time, but his price is shortening as we speak.
I have decided to return to work and have accepted another job in the betting industry. I won't talk much about it on here as this blog only represents my personal views but I am quite excited by the new and challenging role. It will mean relocating but only to the other side of London and not to Gibraltar again.
I plan to relax this weekend and may well play a little bit of Poker instead of the usual NFL studying. Hopefully I will feel refreshed and ready to tackle it again next week.
In the meantime, good luck to you if you're having a bet.
Monday, December 7, 2009
Ups and Downs.
The weekend contained the usual highs and lows and I'd like to be able to say that I got something right but that would be clutching at straws.
Things that went well this weekend:
Olly made the final of X factor. Although I had backed Danyl on Saturday night it is a relief that Olly made it through, he might still have a chance. Obviously it will depend on what happens on the show on Saturday but he may also pick up a good number of Danyl's voters which would hopefully see him get heads up with strong favourite Joe. One step at a time however lets see what news surrounding the show materialises this week.
New York Giants beat Dallas:
It was a no bet match for me but The G-Men performed well and it was nice to see Brandon Jacobs put up some good numbers against the team he openly admits he does not like. A slim chance of a play off spot remains.
Things that went wrong this weekend:
Matt Schaub missed part of the match in Jacksonville after injuring his shoulder in the 1st quarter. I'm not sure how much it affected The Texans chances because they looked pretty awful to me and were beaten 23-18. Another losing NFL week is enough to bring tears to my eyes. We are now 8 & 3 and I am considering a weekend off.
Fantasy Football team:
I needed to win my last game to make the playoffs. I keep leaving the wrong players on the bench. Last night I played Peyton instead of Eli and Eli scored more. I rested Percy Harvin and he came up trumps again. The upshot is I trail by 28 points with Ryan Grant and Derrick Mason playing tonight. A draw will be enough for me but I am going to need touchdown performances from both players to snatch an unlikely win.
I have decided not to compile my handicap lines today, I will do it tomorrow after the Monday Night Football match.
Things that went well this weekend:
Olly made the final of X factor. Although I had backed Danyl on Saturday night it is a relief that Olly made it through, he might still have a chance. Obviously it will depend on what happens on the show on Saturday but he may also pick up a good number of Danyl's voters which would hopefully see him get heads up with strong favourite Joe. One step at a time however lets see what news surrounding the show materialises this week.
New York Giants beat Dallas:
It was a no bet match for me but The G-Men performed well and it was nice to see Brandon Jacobs put up some good numbers against the team he openly admits he does not like. A slim chance of a play off spot remains.
Things that went wrong this weekend:
Matt Schaub missed part of the match in Jacksonville after injuring his shoulder in the 1st quarter. I'm not sure how much it affected The Texans chances because they looked pretty awful to me and were beaten 23-18. Another losing NFL week is enough to bring tears to my eyes. We are now 8 & 3 and I am considering a weekend off.
Fantasy Football team:
I needed to win my last game to make the playoffs. I keep leaving the wrong players on the bench. Last night I played Peyton instead of Eli and Eli scored more. I rested Percy Harvin and he came up trumps again. The upshot is I trail by 28 points with Ryan Grant and Derrick Mason playing tonight. A draw will be enough for me but I am going to need touchdown performances from both players to snatch an unlikely win.
I have decided not to compile my handicap lines today, I will do it tomorrow after the Monday Night Football match.
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Sunday Bloody Sunday.
Sunday really is the best day of the week. After a reasonable lie in and a spot of breakfast I can prepare myself for a feast of sport. Throw in a roast dinner, The X Factor and the Sunday majors on the Poker sites and I'm sure you would find it hard to disagree.
I was up until 5am this morning, although with all the sports coverage ESPN now offer in the UK it is becoming a much more frequent occurrence. The reason for my lack of sleep last night was The Ultimate Fighter 10. If you haven't seen it yet and are waiting for the repeat show you better look away now as spoilers will follow.
Kimbo Slice made his UFC debut against the explosive Alexander Houston. The MMA world expected a slug fest yet Alexander did not engage. For such a dangerous striker to avoid exchanging with Slice suggests the fighting world really does respect his power. It was also clear that Kimbo had worked very hard on his ground game and was able to dominate Alexander in the 2nd round. The judges awarded the fight to the Internet phenom and fans will be looking forward to his return.
Marcus Jones who was a 1st round pick for Tampa Bay in 1996 had his lights turned out by Matt Matrione the former Giants DT and in the final, Roy "big country" Jones knocked out another former NFL player in Brendan Schaub. All in all it was a great nights action and I am looking forward to another late one next Saturday as BJ Penn defends his lightweight title against Diego Sanchez, in what really should be an explosive match up.
Yesterday I almost suggested a bet on Olly at around 2/1 to be eliminated, anybody that had a bet is in great shape now because he is now a best price 10/11 to leave. If you follow me on Twitter you will see that I consider Simon to have forfeited Olly's chances to ensure Danyl makes the final.
On to last night's show and I'd like to start by saying that there are only two things certain in life. We will all die one day and Stacey will not win X Factor.
How much control does Simon have? For my money I think he pulls the strings every year, it is his money after all. He will not want Stacey to be the winner. How can she be? Look back at the last two winners in Alexandra Burke and Leona Lewis and Stacey has not got anything near their quality (if you doubt me listen to their performances on Youtube), she really would not sell records once her initial win had passed over. I know this, you know this and most importantly Simon knows this.
Joe has done a fantastic job with almost everything he has been given, but like Simon I do not see an international superstar when I look at Joe. Could you see him cracking America, he reminds me of Gareth Gates, remember him?
So that means it's hats off time. Simon has been right all along and that's why I backed Danyl last night to win the show at 10/1 on Betfair. Firstly I thought he was by far the best performer last night and I expect him to be again next week when he will be up against 3rd placed Stacey and then heads up with Joe.
It is a shame we will likely say goodbye to Olly tonight but I think his votes will now mostly go to the best performer on the night and that really should be Danyl. He knows he has to be on top form to survive after an early scare, he is getting his confidence back now and Simon has said all along that he is the best singer, I have to agree and bet accordingly.
A few years back nobody expected Will Young to beat Gareth Gates, but the fans did vote for the best act in the end. Danyl could appeal internationally and out of the remaining acts has probably the only chance to make it in the US which is important to Simon's bank balance.
I'm not going to recommend you back Danyl, I'm sure most people have their own favourites by now I just thought I'd tell you how I saw the show unravelling. I will be sorry to see Olly leave as an ante-post bet at 12/1 would have been nice and to be honest I rarely get these wrong so it's a shock to the system, and is a hard thing for me to accept.
I hope you enjoy your Sunday as much as I am going to enjoy mine. Go Texans!
I was up until 5am this morning, although with all the sports coverage ESPN now offer in the UK it is becoming a much more frequent occurrence. The reason for my lack of sleep last night was The Ultimate Fighter 10. If you haven't seen it yet and are waiting for the repeat show you better look away now as spoilers will follow.
Kimbo Slice made his UFC debut against the explosive Alexander Houston. The MMA world expected a slug fest yet Alexander did not engage. For such a dangerous striker to avoid exchanging with Slice suggests the fighting world really does respect his power. It was also clear that Kimbo had worked very hard on his ground game and was able to dominate Alexander in the 2nd round. The judges awarded the fight to the Internet phenom and fans will be looking forward to his return.
Marcus Jones who was a 1st round pick for Tampa Bay in 1996 had his lights turned out by Matt Matrione the former Giants DT and in the final, Roy "big country" Jones knocked out another former NFL player in Brendan Schaub. All in all it was a great nights action and I am looking forward to another late one next Saturday as BJ Penn defends his lightweight title against Diego Sanchez, in what really should be an explosive match up.
Yesterday I almost suggested a bet on Olly at around 2/1 to be eliminated, anybody that had a bet is in great shape now because he is now a best price 10/11 to leave. If you follow me on Twitter you will see that I consider Simon to have forfeited Olly's chances to ensure Danyl makes the final.
On to last night's show and I'd like to start by saying that there are only two things certain in life. We will all die one day and Stacey will not win X Factor.
How much control does Simon have? For my money I think he pulls the strings every year, it is his money after all. He will not want Stacey to be the winner. How can she be? Look back at the last two winners in Alexandra Burke and Leona Lewis and Stacey has not got anything near their quality (if you doubt me listen to their performances on Youtube), she really would not sell records once her initial win had passed over. I know this, you know this and most importantly Simon knows this.
Joe has done a fantastic job with almost everything he has been given, but like Simon I do not see an international superstar when I look at Joe. Could you see him cracking America, he reminds me of Gareth Gates, remember him?
So that means it's hats off time. Simon has been right all along and that's why I backed Danyl last night to win the show at 10/1 on Betfair. Firstly I thought he was by far the best performer last night and I expect him to be again next week when he will be up against 3rd placed Stacey and then heads up with Joe.
It is a shame we will likely say goodbye to Olly tonight but I think his votes will now mostly go to the best performer on the night and that really should be Danyl. He knows he has to be on top form to survive after an early scare, he is getting his confidence back now and Simon has said all along that he is the best singer, I have to agree and bet accordingly.
A few years back nobody expected Will Young to beat Gareth Gates, but the fans did vote for the best act in the end. Danyl could appeal internationally and out of the remaining acts has probably the only chance to make it in the US which is important to Simon's bank balance.
I'm not going to recommend you back Danyl, I'm sure most people have their own favourites by now I just thought I'd tell you how I saw the show unravelling. I will be sorry to see Olly leave as an ante-post bet at 12/1 would have been nice and to be honest I rarely get these wrong so it's a shock to the system, and is a hard thing for me to accept.
I hope you enjoy your Sunday as much as I am going to enjoy mine. Go Texans!
Saturday, December 5, 2009
X Factor - Semi Finals.
Simon Cowell has half of the acts left in this years X Factor but I cannot see how he won't lose one of them this weekend.
My feeling about Joe has been documented many times before but it does appear he is an absolute banker for the final and may well give Cheryl another winning year. Stacey, another that has not appealed to me as much as to others will also make the final, they need a girl in there and she will be an also ran on finals night.
So who to go from Olly and Danyl? Obviously we here at Nutty Towers hope that it's Danyl because our pre- live show bet on Olly at least deserves another sweat. However Simon has given Danyl a cracking couple of tracks tonight and he might just steal the show. I have said before that Simon appears to prefer Danyl and that again has become apparent.
Earlier in the week Danyl was odds on to go but 11/10 is now the best price with the firms and it's similar on the exchanges. Olly has eased slightly and is now available at 7/4 but it might be possible to get 2/1 on Betfair.
So onto tonight's songs, the theme is one Michael Jackson track and then a song of their choice. Here is what has been selected:
Stacey Solomon: The Way You Make Me Feel and You Got The Love (Florence & The Machine)
This seems to be a bit up tempo for Stacey, it's not quite a risk but she will be challenging her range in my opinion.
Danyl Johnson: Man in the Mirror and Hello (Lionel Richie)
I think these are very solid choices. I wouldn't be surprised if Simon orchestrates it for him to end the show with the Lionel Richie track which I think he will absolutely nail.
Joe McElderry: She’s Out Of My Life and The Closer I Get To You (Luther Vandross)
If the market is correct he could sing the Blobby Song and still get through. Decent choices and it does look like Cheryl really knows what she is doing.
Olly Murs: Can You Feel It and Chasing Cars (Snow Patrol)
At least we should get him back to his entertaining self with these tracks, but they aren't match winners for me.
Ideally for us Olly backers, Danyl gets eliminated tonight and then his voters may pick up the phone for Olly next week but I fear the worst.
Next week it is likely that the acts will sing with "stars" and Beyonce's performance helped Alexandra beat JLS last year so it would be a shrewd move by Simon (should Olly get through) to pair him up with Robbie Williams. At least that would give us hope.
I am tempted to recommend a bet on Olly to go this week at around 2/1 but I will leave it until after the show. In the meantime feel free to VOTE OLLY!
My feeling about Joe has been documented many times before but it does appear he is an absolute banker for the final and may well give Cheryl another winning year. Stacey, another that has not appealed to me as much as to others will also make the final, they need a girl in there and she will be an also ran on finals night.
So who to go from Olly and Danyl? Obviously we here at Nutty Towers hope that it's Danyl because our pre- live show bet on Olly at least deserves another sweat. However Simon has given Danyl a cracking couple of tracks tonight and he might just steal the show. I have said before that Simon appears to prefer Danyl and that again has become apparent.
Earlier in the week Danyl was odds on to go but 11/10 is now the best price with the firms and it's similar on the exchanges. Olly has eased slightly and is now available at 7/4 but it might be possible to get 2/1 on Betfair.
So onto tonight's songs, the theme is one Michael Jackson track and then a song of their choice. Here is what has been selected:
Stacey Solomon: The Way You Make Me Feel and You Got The Love (Florence & The Machine)
This seems to be a bit up tempo for Stacey, it's not quite a risk but she will be challenging her range in my opinion.
Danyl Johnson: Man in the Mirror and Hello (Lionel Richie)
I think these are very solid choices. I wouldn't be surprised if Simon orchestrates it for him to end the show with the Lionel Richie track which I think he will absolutely nail.
Joe McElderry: She’s Out Of My Life and The Closer I Get To You (Luther Vandross)
If the market is correct he could sing the Blobby Song and still get through. Decent choices and it does look like Cheryl really knows what she is doing.
Olly Murs: Can You Feel It and Chasing Cars (Snow Patrol)
At least we should get him back to his entertaining self with these tracks, but they aren't match winners for me.
Ideally for us Olly backers, Danyl gets eliminated tonight and then his voters may pick up the phone for Olly next week but I fear the worst.
Next week it is likely that the acts will sing with "stars" and Beyonce's performance helped Alexandra beat JLS last year so it would be a shrewd move by Simon (should Olly get through) to pair him up with Robbie Williams. At least that would give us hope.
I am tempted to recommend a bet on Olly to go this week at around 2/1 but I will leave it until after the show. In the meantime feel free to VOTE OLLY!
Friday, December 4, 2009
Week 13, Lets Go Texans!
I've taken my time to find the right bet this week having agonised over several match ups. I've decided that this week Matt Schaub should really be able to take us back to winning ways.
Houston were unable to convert a good early lead against Indianapolis into a victory last week but Jacksonville will not offer anywhere near the dangers that Peyton Manning and Co did.
I like the Houston roster, they have one of the best receivers in the NFL in Andre Johnson. Steve Slaton and Chris Brown offer a solid rushing game too. TE Owen Daniels injury has been a loss but I think they will still have too much for Jacksonville.
Houston are ranked 3rd in the NFL for passing yards averaging 283.1 per game. Jacksonville pass defense is ranked 26th conceding an average of 242.9 per game. Texan Quarterback Matt Schaub will be confident of piling up some good numbers on Sunday.
Jacksonville will run the ball and in Maurice Jones-Drew they definitely have a weapon. The Texans will need to work hard to stop Jones-Drew but I'm sure they will be working hard on that in practise.
This is a must win match for Houston if they harbour any hopes of making the playoffs. I made them 2.5 point favourites but most of the firms make this an even match up although with Blue Square you can get Houston +1.
1pt Houston +1 Blue Sq.
Houston were unable to convert a good early lead against Indianapolis into a victory last week but Jacksonville will not offer anywhere near the dangers that Peyton Manning and Co did.
I like the Houston roster, they have one of the best receivers in the NFL in Andre Johnson. Steve Slaton and Chris Brown offer a solid rushing game too. TE Owen Daniels injury has been a loss but I think they will still have too much for Jacksonville.
Houston are ranked 3rd in the NFL for passing yards averaging 283.1 per game. Jacksonville pass defense is ranked 26th conceding an average of 242.9 per game. Texan Quarterback Matt Schaub will be confident of piling up some good numbers on Sunday.
Jacksonville will run the ball and in Maurice Jones-Drew they definitely have a weapon. The Texans will need to work hard to stop Jones-Drew but I'm sure they will be working hard on that in practise.
This is a must win match for Houston if they harbour any hopes of making the playoffs. I made them 2.5 point favourites but most of the firms make this an even match up although with Blue Square you can get Houston +1.
1pt Houston +1 Blue Sq.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Week 13 Vegas Lines.
It hasn't been a great few weeks, in fact I am 1 & 2 in the last three weeks. I am very conscious that I may be out of form but I suppose having gone 7 & 0 a bad spell was likely. In the grand scheme of things it isn't really a dreadful spell but I really must return to winning ways before I undo all my early good work.
So here are this weeks Vegas lines with my lines in brackets.
New York Jets -3 (+2.5) @ Buffalo
at Chicago -8.5 (-5.5) St Louis
New England -6.5 (-7.5) @ Miami
Philadelphia -3 (-3) @ Atlanta
New Orleans -8.5 (-7.5) @ Washington
at Indianapolis -7 (-3.5) Tennessee
at Pittsburgh -13 (-5.5) Oakland
Denver -4.5 (-5.5) @ Kansas City
at Carolina -6.5 (-5) Tampa Bay
Houston -1 (-2.5) @ Jacksonville
at Cincinnati -13 (-9) Detroit
San Diego -11.5 (-10.5) at Cleveland
at New York Giants-1 (-1.5) Dallas
San Francisco -1 (-2.5) @ Seattle
Minnesota -3 (-5.5) @ Arizona
at Green Bay -2.5 (-2.5) Baltimore
A few good starting points. Minnesota -3 looks quite good, I'm sure Kurt Warner won't feel comfortable with that D-Line right in his face. We disagree on the Jets/Bills match up and perhaps I am letting last weekends win against Miami cloud my judgement on Buffalo but I will look into how the teams match up today.
Other differences include Pittsburgh by some 7.5 points but like I said before, that really will depend on the availability of Big Ben. They make Indianapolis much stronger favourites too, although that is quite understandable I have been impressed by Tennessee's recent form. Cincinnati have also been given a much larger handicap to overcome by Vegas but I'm not so certain Detroit are that bad. The Bengals have struggled to put up numbers against Cleveland a couple of times now but again this could come down to the fitness of Matthew Stafford.
I will spend today and tomorrow studying the match ups so watch this space for any action over the next 24 hours or so.
So here are this weeks Vegas lines with my lines in brackets.
New York Jets -3 (+2.5) @ Buffalo
at Chicago -8.5 (-5.5) St Louis
New England -6.5 (-7.5) @ Miami
Philadelphia -3 (-3) @ Atlanta
New Orleans -8.5 (-7.5) @ Washington
at Indianapolis -7 (-3.5) Tennessee
at Pittsburgh -13 (-5.5) Oakland
Denver -4.5 (-5.5) @ Kansas City
at Carolina -6.5 (-5) Tampa Bay
Houston -1 (-2.5) @ Jacksonville
at Cincinnati -13 (-9) Detroit
San Diego -11.5 (-10.5) at Cleveland
at New York Giants-1 (-1.5) Dallas
San Francisco -1 (-2.5) @ Seattle
Minnesota -3 (-5.5) @ Arizona
at Green Bay -2.5 (-2.5) Baltimore
A few good starting points. Minnesota -3 looks quite good, I'm sure Kurt Warner won't feel comfortable with that D-Line right in his face. We disagree on the Jets/Bills match up and perhaps I am letting last weekends win against Miami cloud my judgement on Buffalo but I will look into how the teams match up today.
Other differences include Pittsburgh by some 7.5 points but like I said before, that really will depend on the availability of Big Ben. They make Indianapolis much stronger favourites too, although that is quite understandable I have been impressed by Tennessee's recent form. Cincinnati have also been given a much larger handicap to overcome by Vegas but I'm not so certain Detroit are that bad. The Bengals have struggled to put up numbers against Cleveland a couple of times now but again this could come down to the fitness of Matthew Stafford.
I will spend today and tomorrow studying the match ups so watch this space for any action over the next 24 hours or so.
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