Monday, January 25, 2010

No Fairytale Ending For Favre.

Adrian Peterson rushed for over 100 yards for the first time in 9 matches, he also added 3 touchdowns but it was the fumbles that cost the Vikings a trip to South Florida and Superbowl XLIV.

How Brett Favre still manages to perform to the level that he does at 40 is a testament in it self. Favre was hit regularly by the Saint's defense but he continued to chase the fairytale ending that all neutrals longed for.

It was not to be as fumble after fumble stifled the Vikings progress allowing an overtime victory for New Orleans who won their first Conference title and head to the Superbowl for the first time in franchise history.

And what a game it promises to be in Miami, where the number one seed in the NFC will take on the number one seed in the AFC after Peyton Manning ended the hopes of all Jets fans.

New York gave it their all and Sanchez performed better than anyone anticipated throwing for 257 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Unfortunately this ended the hopes of Nutty Sports in the quest for another winner. It was however a joy to watch Peyton Manning out fox the Jets. As the game progressed it was clear to see that Manning had found the formula to unlock the number one D-Line in the NFL.

Arguments could be made for Peyton Manning being the greatest of all time and if he goes on to win his 2nd World Championship ring in Miami then who would oppose such thoughts?

We have 2 weeks until the big show and there will be plenty of promise as the commentators bill this as the battle of the quarterbacks.

So how do I see this playing out? The Colts have to be favourites and rightly so. Their much underrated D-Line has so much pace they can stop anyone and that includes the very talented Drew Brees.

Early indications suggest that the UK firms are making Indianapolis 5.5 point favourites but that might be a little too high. Make no mistake New Orleans will put up some numbers. In my mind I had The Colts at around 3.5-4 point favourites. I am not recommending anything at such an early stage but the Manning hype is in overdrive at the moment and that may result in the firms trimming that line nearer the off time.

I will be updating the blog during the week and will discuss many different individual match ups that we can look forward to in Miami. In the meantime enjoy the build up it's going to be a great show!

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Something A Bit Different.

I've decided to leave the match up between Minnesota and New Orleans alone. I won't be having any sort of bet in this game because I think anything is possible. I will just enjoy what I hope will be a spectacle.

As for the match up between Indianapolis and New York Jets I have something a bit different. I am going to go short on the points. It is possible to get under 40.5 points with William Hill and Totesport.

My initial line was as low as 36.5 so I have studied the stats and how the teams match up. Lets start with the basics. The Colts are ranked no.2 in the NFL for pass offense averaging 26.0 points per game. The Jets are ranked no.1 in the NFL for pass defense conceding an average of 14.8 per game. (for the record Colts concede an average of 19.2 and Jets score 21.8).

So what happens when the best passing offense meets the best passing defense? Hard to say, so lets break it down some more. The Colts have scored an average of 23.87 points at home during the regular season (conceding 16.66).

The Jets have scored an average of 23.3 points per game on the road, slightly more than their overall average (conceding 15.5).

An interesting point here is that the Colts have only played 2 teams that finished with a winning record and the Jets have only faced one. I think this game could be a very low scoring affair.

This game is going to be tight. I think it obvious also that the Colts will pass the ball and the Jets will run the ball. Therefore each team's defensive coordinators will be working on the respective defensive areas.

It might not be exciting going short on total points but it should prove profitable.

1pt under 40.5 total points Jets @ Colts 10/11 Will Hills & Totesport.

Monday, January 18, 2010

Conference Championship Lines.

We lost Dallas this weekend after they were mauled in the Dome by The Vikings. Dallas had a lot of early possession but could not convert that into points. The NFC Championship game will now be contested between the number 1 and 2 seeds as Minnesota travel to New Orleans.

The story was slightly different in the last of the divisional matches as The New York Jets D-Line won the day by limiting San Diego to just 2 scores. We collected on both bets and that puts us in profit for the post season.

The Jets now travel to Indianapolis where they won against a weakened side a few weeks ago giving them the opportunity to make a charge at the play offs.

I worry about Mark Sanchez though. He found his tightend, Dustin Keller, for a touchdown in the 4th quarter last night but he does not inspire confidence. San Diego were able to defend well against New York early on because they could concentrate on their running game knowing it unlikely Sanchez will find big plays down the field. Indy will do the same and The Jets D-Line will be working overtime trying to Stop Manning and Co.

Both games have a lot of potential as you would expect at this stage of the season. I have compiled my lines below.

Sunday 24th 8pm.

at Indianapolis -7 New York Jets

Sunday 24th 11.30pm.

at New Orleans -6 Minnesota

As we only have 2 matches it is obviously less likely that we will find a bet so I thought I'd compile my ideas on the total points which I have added below.


at Indianapolis New York Jets 36.5

at New Orleans Minnesota 51.5

I will also be having a good look through all other markets on offer during the week, hopefully something worth backing will rear it's head.

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Regular Season Betting Review.

I think it's time to review our P&L for the regular NFL season. We still have some outstanding bets to come but this review will be for match bets only.

I will review the post season and outright after the season is completed. So far we have a ROI of 20.6%. Having started the season so well it is a disappointing figure but the fact is we are ahead and that is the main thing. Making money.

The bets are listed below.

1. No bet.
2. No bet.
3. 1pt Denver @ Oakland 5/6 W
4. 1pt Tampa Bay +7.5 10/11 @ Washington W
5. 1pt Indianapolis -3 10/11 @ Tennessee W
6. 1pt Buffalo +10 10/11 New York Jets W
7. 2pts New Orleans -6 10/11 @ Miami W
8. 1pt Dallas -9.5 10/11 Seattle W
9. 1pt Carolina +14 8/9 @ New Orleans W
10. 2pts New Orleans -13.5 10/11 @ St Louis L
11. 1pt Tennessee +5 10/11 @ Houston W
12. 1pt Miami -3 4/5 @ Buffalo L
13. 1pt Houston +1 10/11 @ Jacksonville L
14. No bet.
15. 1pt Green Bay 11/10 @ Pittsburgh L
1pt New York Giants -3 11/10 @ Washington W
16. 1pt Buffalo +9 10/11 @ Atlanta L
17. No bet.

I went "off the rails" towards the end of the season and I think that understandable to some degree. As the weeks go on the firms make fewer and fewer mistakes and therefore as I have said before it is harder to find a good bet. Although we were fortunate in some matches early on we were certainly unlucky in a few towards the end of the campaign, Green Bay's defeat at Pittsburgh particularly stands out.

Looking back at some of the bets we certainly got on the right side of some good things. Our week 5 bet with The Colts surrendering only 3 points looks a mighty fine line now, likewise our first bet with Denver from scratch.

The play offs are not going to be straight forward either as all the teams have title credentials, hopefully we will be on the right side of things to come.

The Texans although finishing 9-7 threw away their chances of post season football at Jacksonville and if we are clutching at straws then we could consider ourselves unlucky that Matt Schaubb injured his shoulder in the 1st quarter. We obviously lost on the outright there but we are in a good position with Dallas. We backed them at 26/1 (posted Friday 27th November) and if laying off is your thing you can now do so at 15/2 on the exchanges. Personally I'll be keeping the bet because I don't like to give up good positions. It is only possible to lay off when things go your way so why detract from maximising profits? Lets hope The Cowboy's give us a real run for our money.

I will conduct another review after events have unfolded in Miami next month.

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Divisional Play Off Bet.

If the action is any where near as good as last week we are in for a treat. I'll start by posting the Vegas lines with my lines in brackets.

Saturday 16th 9.30pm

at New Orleans - 7 (6) Arizona

Saturday 16th 12.15am

at Indianapolis - 6.5 (6) Baltimore

Sunday 17th 6pm

at Minnesota - 3 (1.5) Dallas

Sunday 17th 9.40pm

at San Diego - 7 (4.5) New York Jets

Firstly I wouldn't put anyone off a bet on Dallas. Not only on the handicap but the 5/4 currently offered by William Hill looks like a big price to me. I will be having a little bit on but seeing as I am wrapped up with the Cowboys on the outright it won't be my main bet this weekend.

I'll be taking on San Diego this week. New York Jets match up very well against The Chargers. The Jets who are ranked 1st for rush yards in the NFL (172.2) should have plenty of success against a D-Line ranked 20th conceding 117.8 rushing yards per game.

The counter argument form San Diego fans will be the form of Philip Rivers and the passing game where they are ranked 11th with 209.2 yards per game, but they won't find The Jets so accommodating in this area. New York are ranked 1st in the NFL for pass defence conceding only 153.7 yards per game.

Furthermore they are ranked no.1 overall on defence averaging only 252.3 yards and take top spot on points conceded too with an average of 14.8.

Yes, the Chargers are on fire but I think the Jets will put them out. Rivers will not find so much room in the secondary and the D-Line will be over worked on the ground. I gave the Chargers only 4.5 points to cover and that was mainly because they are at home. It is possible to get The Jets +7.5 and that is a must bet.

The Giants won the Superbowl on the road in 2008 and their D-Line was responsible for a lot of their big plays. It is hard to win it all on the road but with the right defensive tools it is very possible. The Jets have the tools and that is why I will also be investing a small amount on them to win the match at around 11/4.

I hope you enjoy the action as much as I will. Let go Jets.

2pts New York Jets +7.5 @ 10/11 Generally.
1pt New York Jets 11/4 Generally.

Monday, January 11, 2010

Packers Go Soooo Close.

Green Bay were so close to making an incredible come back and in the process give us a winning double but a fumble in O/T handed victory to Arizona.

It was one of the best football matches I have ever seen and that makes defeat a little easier to accept. It was the highest scoring play off match of all time and both O-Lines were in fantastic form. Arizona are rewarded with a trip to New Orleans where I expect the point spread to be sky high.

Dallas had got us of to a winning start with another convincing win against The Eagles and are now best price 7/1 to win it all. I will be cheering on the Cowboys in Minnesota next weekend,where I like their chances.

New York destroyed Cincinnati's hopes and they now travel to San Diego where they actually match up quite well. Having scraped into the Play Offs on week 17 they may well feel they have nothing to lose and could quite easily upset Phillip Rivers and his in form team. I expect that to be another great match.

Baltimore came firing out of the blocks against New England and pretty much won the game in the 1st Quarter. They now travel to favourites Indianapolis where their running game will test the Colts D-Line.

So on to next weekend and I have compiled my lines below. (Times are GMT).

Saturday 16th 9.30pm

at New Orleans -6 Arizona

Saturday 16th 12.15am

at Indianapolis -6 Baltimore

Sunday 17th 6pm

at Minnesota -1.5 Dallas

Sunday 17th 9.40pm

at San Diego - 4.5 New York Jets

Hopefully I will be back with a bet very soon.

Friday, January 8, 2010

Wild Card Weekend.

The season hots up this weekend as the Wild Card matches get underway and I have 2 bets I like a lot.

Form is always key when punting and there are 2 fixtures this weekend that are repeats of last weekend. The dynamics will be much different in the Green Bay/Arizona match up because Arizona rested a number of their players but the result should be the same.

Green Bay won the contest 33-7 and they will be full of confidence when they return to Phoenix to tackle the Cardinals again. Green Bay had been as big as 21/20 a few days ago but they are best priced now at 10/11. It is still worth a bet, although anyone that got the odds against has done very well.

Aaron Rodgers has had a fantastic season and his O-Line is full of talented options. Arizona are no pushovers but are much more predictable than the Packers. The NFC West is the weakest of all the divisions and at the moment no other team are close to competing with Arizona.

It might be a lot closer than last week with Arizona fielding their stars but I expect Green Bay to have too much both offensively and defensively for the Cardinals.

The 2nd bet this week is Dallas. Tony Romo has got over his December Jinx and the 25/1 we took on Dallas some weeks ago now looks like a big price.

Philadelphia could have had a bye had they beaten The Cowboys last week but their 24-0 defeat handed their NFC East rivals the title and home field advantage in this game.

When I compiled my lines I made Dallas 6 point favourites but the firms have gone as low as 3.5. Yes, I do expect a better performance from the Eagles but watching the game back from last weekend I can't see the Cowboys throwing this one away.

I am going to have 2 singles and a double this weekend and expect it to be very profitable. The action will be good this weekend and I think our money is safe in the hands of Rodgers and Romo.

2pts Dallas -3.5 @ 10/11 Tote & Paddy Power.
2pts Green Bay 10/11 Generally.

1pt double.

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Wild Card Matches.

Don't you just love the British way. Here is a nation with the greatest history. Packed with great leaders, explorers and warriors. A nation with the best armed forces in the world bar none, a rich and glorious past.

Yet as soon as the wind blows or a bit of snow falls we become utterly useless. Public transport can't function, workforces are limited and everyone stays home with the heating on. I'm not sure today's society would win a World War, Hitler's timing was all out in my opinion.

Anyway on to the action and we have 4 wild card games this week. I felt a bit aggrieved that the Texans didn't make the cut having made an incredible comeback against New England. Denver threw it away against Kansas but Cincinnati couldn't do us a favour and New York Jets take the last AFC spot.

I actually blame Indianapolis for this, had they went for their perfect record last week and kept their star players on the field, The Jets would have been out of the race. Imagine the fuss Wenger would make if Ferguson did something similar in the Premiership.

Nothing we can do now though other than plough on searching for another bet. I have compiled my lines for this weekends action.

Saturday 9.30pm GMT

at Cincinnati -3 Baltimore

Sunday 1am GMT

at Dallas -6 Philadelphia

Sunday 6pm GMT

at New England -4.5 Baltimore

Sunday 9.40pm GMT

at Arizona -1.5 Green Bay

My son is a Green Bay fan so I will be cheering them on with him, I also have a bet on Dallas so as much as it hurts they will also have my support. There is a long way to go yet but for the time being I will study hard to see if there is a bet I like.

By the way, I couldn't be bothered to finish off the Nutties. So no awards this year for the Rookies or Quarterbacks. I'm sure they will get over it.

Saturday, January 2, 2010

The Nutties - Part 3, Tight End

The job of a Running Back and Wide Receiver is fairly self explanatory. The role of the Tight End may not be so familiar to everyone so I thought I'd start with a brief description.

Tight End (TE) is a position on the offensive team. The tight end is sometimes the last man on the offensive line, but has a slightly different role than other linemen. The role of tight ends can change depending on tactical preferences but their main jobs are blocking for the running back, catching passes from the quarterback and to help develop a stronger pocket by assisting fellow linemen in blocking during passing plays.

To start I will mention a few top TE's that didn't quite make the cut. Kevin Boss of New York and Brent Celek of Philadelphia both had solid seasons. They didn't put up a lot of yardage but both found the end zone on a regular basis - Boss 12 times and Celek 14.

Heath Miller is considered one of the best in the business, but like Pittsburgh he has not had his most productive season.

Another Miller, Zach of Oakland has been solid again. Averaging 13.0 yards per reception he has helped a very mediocre Raiders side in the few matches they have managed to win.

Jason Witten was in many peoples view a suprise inclusion in the NFC Pro Bowl team but he has missed out on a Nuttie, in fact he hasn't made the top 5. 954 yards at an average of 10.8 are decent figures but he has only contributed 1 touchdown and for my money others have played much more significant roles.

So the top 5 are Dallas Clark (Indianapolis), Antonio Gates (San Diego), Kellen Winslow (Tampa Bay), Vernon Davis ( San Francisco) and Visanthe Shiancoe (Minnesota).

Tampa Bay picked up Winslow this season from Cleveland and it was a great acquisition. Winslow puts up good figures year on year and has stood out in what has been a very poor Tampa team. Winslow didn't match his career high stats of 2007 but has had another very productive year with 828 yards at an average of 11.5 scoring 5 touchdowns. For this he grabs 5th place.

4th place is given to Brett favre's favourite red zone target. Visanthe Shiancoe has scored incredibly well for Minnesota this year especially considering how many options they have offensively. Shiancoe can be very proud of his 12 touchdowns this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the end zone during the play offs. Shaincoe does a lot of short work for the Vikings so his 472 yards at an average of 9.6 does not tell the tale of how good he has been.

Dallas Clark stands at the top of the NFL TE rankings but he finished in 3rd place in the race for a Nuttie. Another great season with The Colts who are among the favourites for Superbowl glory, Clark who already has a Superbowl ring has made career high stats this year putting up 1,054 yards at an average of 11.3 and notching 10 touchdowns.

This was a close call but in the end 2nd place is handed to Vernon Davis. The 49ers have not had a good year but their TE has stood out. Davis has contributed a huge 12 touchdowns this season for a team ranked 29th offensively. Davis has added 876 yards at an average of 12.2 per reception.

So the winner is Antonio Gates. The Chargers are on fire and Gates is a major player on their O-Line. With more receiving yards than many WR's Gates has 1,145 yards at a huge average of 14.7. QB Phillip Rivers knows he can rely on Gates for the big plays and quite often will find him free in the end zone. Gates has 7 touchdowns so far and I expect him to play a big part in San Diego's charge for the Superbowl.

Tomorrow I will review the Rookie's performances.

Friday, January 1, 2010

The Nutties - Part 2, Wide Reciever.

Some Tightends figure quite high on the receiving rankings this year but I will be reviewing that position tomorrow so they won't be considered for this particular award.

Quite often a receiver will also be used for rushing yardage and vice versa, in fact Ray Rice who was awarded 3rd place in the Running Back category yesterday is actually ranked 50th with 683 receiving yards, but this award is for receptions only.

So lets discuss a few WR's that didn't make the top 5 and the reasons why. It is unlikely that Pittsburgh will make the play offs although they do have a slim chance and having won the lot last year they will view 2009/2010 season as a poor effort. Their 2 main receivers, Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes share a lot of the work and it would be difficult to say exactly who Big Ben prefers. I think he tends to use Ward for the shorter work especially around the red zone and Holmes for the bigger plays. Ward the veteran has broke the 1000 yard barrier for the 6th time, his best year being back in 2002. Whereas this is Homes' first time reaching 1000 in his 3 seasons to date and he may well offer a lot of future promise, but overall his performances have not enthralled us here at Nutty Towers and he hasn't squeezed in either.

Others who have missed the cut but had good seasons include Steve Smith of New York. The Giants were in desperate need of a replacement for Plaxico and Smith has stepped up well, he has made 1,163 yards with an average of 12.0 and he has found the end zone 7 times. Rookie, Hakeem Nicks has supported Smith well putting up 795 yards at an average of 17.3 scoring 6 touchdowns. The future looks very bright for Nicks.

Perhaps the toughest call was leaving out Sidney Rice. After 2 very average seasons in the NFL Rice has finally found his feet. He has been instrumental in The Vikings progress this term and although Favre tends to favour his tightend in the red zone his go to man is Sidney Rice. Rice has made 1,200 yards averaging 15.6 for 6 touchdowns and must consider himself very unfortunate not to have made the top 5, so I will award him the unofficial 6th place.

So on to the top 5 and they are, Desean Jackson (Philadelphia), Andre Johnson (Houston), Miles Austin (Dallas) Randy Moss (New England) and Vincent Jackson (San Diego).

No top 5 would be complete without Randy Moss. No other receiver has notched as many touchdowns as Moss who has 13. His attitude is often questioned but his performances speak for themselves. Moss finishes in 5th spot making 1,189 yards at an average of 15.2.

Dallas have fought back after a slowish start to the season and that in part is due to the form of Miles Austin. Tony Romo needed a receiver and Austin stepped up with 1,230 yards averaging 16.6 with 11 touchdowns. He is a worthy 4th place finisher.

3rd place is awarded to Andre Johnson. Considered by many to be the best WR in the football league Johnson has put up more yards than anyone else. Houston really need to make the post season so his talent can be seen in the big games. Johnson averaged 15.8 yards and has 9 touchdowns to his name. Another very solid season that hopefully will not end this weekend.

San Diego have won 10 games in a row and really look like they will go close this year. They have a very solid outfit and Vincent Jackson has contributed handsomely. Our 2nd placed receiver has 1,167 yards at a very long average of 17.2 adding 9 touchdowns to the chargers cause. Watch out for Jackson in weeks to come as San Diego could well be in Miami in February.

That means our winner is Desean Jackson. Philadelphia have had a strong year, they face the Cowboys on Sunday to fight it out for the division but they have secured a play off spot already. They have a young side and in only his 2nd season Jackson has caught the eye.

Jackson has made 1,120 yards averaging 18.7 yards per reception. No WR has a higher average and his 9 touchdowns has played a huge part in the success of the Eagles this year.

This might be a surprise selection, but nonetheless a deserved one. Watch out for Desean Jackson the winner of the WR Nuttie in the weeks to come.