Of late I have been sending emails around to a select number of friends and colleagues with some betting information and also my views and selections. With the American Football season just underway (week 4 complete) I thought, rather than send an email I'll post my views here for nobody to see ;o)
As some may know, I enjoy deciphering reality TV shows and have proved quite successful at it in the past I won't bore you with details because I'm determined this blog will not include any aftertiming!
So there have been 3 emails sent thus far. As we go to press 2 of them are very much alive, although the 2nd of the 3 was a winner.
I am going to start the blog of with posting these 3 emails for my records if nothing else - it all counts towards the annual P&L.
The first one was an advanced thought on the X-Factor series.
Email sent: 23rd september 2009
Lets start with an unfortunate admission - It looks very much like Daniel Pearce has failed to progress from Judges houses to the live shows. I thought there might be a danger that because he'd been there before that they wouldn't risk him again and would choose the option of giving someone else a shout.
As some may know, I enjoy deciphering reality TV shows and have proved quite successful at it in the past I won't bore you with details because I'm determined this blog will not include any aftertiming!
So there have been 3 emails sent thus far. As we go to press 2 of them are very much alive, although the 2nd of the 3 was a winner.
I am going to start the blog of with posting these 3 emails for my records if nothing else - it all counts towards the annual P&L.
The first one was an advanced thought on the X-Factor series.
Email sent: 23rd september 2009
Lets start with an unfortunate admission - It looks very much like Daniel Pearce has failed to progress from Judges houses to the live shows. I thought there might be a danger that because he'd been there before that they wouldn't risk him again and would choose the option of giving someone else a shout.
So we need to get busy to recoup any losses. Personally I find trading the eliminations is a simple and very profitable method and I'll be doing that as soon as it starts. There are a lack of girl contestants this year so anybody that stands out in the girls category should make the final on the basis that they will want to keep it as mixed as possible.
There has also been some absolutely ludicrous selections for the final 12 this year. Louis being the wrongun that he is has only gone and picked those two lads from the first show - John and Edward - ahead of Mis Fitz who if you recall did that different version of Toxic. But Louis will always choose and Irish act because, well he's Louis.
Anyways, they obviously can't win, but lets not forget really bad acts have the habit of holding on for a bit.
Here are the final 12 and their mentors: Simon Cowell, Over 25s: Danyl Johnson, Jamie Archer, Ollie Murs.
Cheryl Cole, Boys:Joe Mcelderry, Lloyd Daniels, Rikki Loney.
Dannii Minogue, Girls:Lucie Jones, Stacey Solomon, Rachel Adedji.
Louis Walsh, Groups:F R A N K, Kandy Rain, John & Edward. As you can see Louis has given himself no chance and is relying on a few ex strippers. Cheryl has picked a couple of lads from the North East (suprise, suprise) and the Scottish guy Rikki who went to the judges houses last year.
Simon has already said he should have picked him instead of another of his acts last year, he will pick up Scottish votes (he loves his mum you know) and they have been relentless when voting for their own in previous years - that Leon Jackson was helped enormously by them as he was no way the better singer (he beat Rydian) and who can forget the fat warbler Michelle McManus albeit under the Pop Idol guise.
Rikki has to be considered, best price is currently 25/1 with corals, Betfred and Bsq and I wouldn't put you off a few quid because i'm sure he'll get shorter. I'm a layer of Danyl Johnson (the jolly) I think he's going to peak to soon and the winner really needs to improve every week.
He has also started to receive a bit of bad press because his ex-manager of a band he was in is being done for fraudulently taking the money he raised for their single that was never released.
Jamie Archer is decent - he sang Sex on Fire, by Kings of Leon but I anticipate the judges calling him a one trick pony fairly quickly. Ollie Murs is the likeliest candidate to do well from Simon's group - Robbie Williams is already a fan. He has a unique soulful sound to him and he is a bit of a cheeky cockney type - i'd imagine the girls will vote in there droves. A general best price of 6/1 doesn't do it for me, so i'll be waiting for Betfair to form a market in an attempt to get 8s.
I really don't like Dannii's chances this year. 19 year old East London single mother Stacey is average at best, be prepared for lots of tears and shots of her with said child and how much of a better life she wants for it.
Lucie Jones is that 18 year old Welsh lass who I am certain will struggle with big numbers. I just can't see her going deep - she is too young and her voice hasn't developed enough yet. The last in that category is Rachel Adedji. She is 17 now - she made it to boot camp last year so she has definitly progressed. For my money her voice is stronger than Lucie's and therefore may be the last girl standing - but I won't be having a punt on anyone from Dannii's category.
I'm not going to spend anytime on Louis' category.
recommendations:1pt Rikki Loney 25/1
Ollie Murs on BF when available.
Following this email I sent what was my first NFL advice of the season in week 3;
Email sent: 27th September 2009
The season has only just got under way but already a few things are obvious. Oakland scraped past an awful Kansas side last week with a 2 minute drive with 2 minutes to go having been shut out for 58 minutes. Shut out that is by the Chiefs!
In comparison Denver dominated for large periods last week against Cleveland (who for my money are far better than Kansas) winning 27-6. Oakland QB Ja Marcuss Russell has only completed 35% of passes in the 2 games thus far whereas his opposite number Kyle Orton is over 50% in pass completion and actually ranks first in the NFL for 4th quarter pass rating.
Broncos WR needs 40 yards more to reach 3,000 career recieving yards and he might find the Raiders D-Line quite accomodating. This looks like a great opportunity for Denver to go 3 and 0 for the season. There is 5/6 available with extra-bet for them to win the match and that's the bet. although Denver -1 with the bigger firms is available at the same price.
1pt Denver Broncos 5/6
That email is as close to aftertiming that I will come, but I want to keep it for records and there were dozens of people who can verify it was sent in plenty of time.
To finish my first post I have this weekends NFL advice. I regularly discuss the gridiron action with Nick Sharratt and on a Monday after we have compiled our handicap lines for the forthcoming weeks action we will often confer before checking out what Vegas has produced. There were a few possibilities this weekend - for instance Frank Gore the star 49ers reciever is out and they were giving the Rams a 10.5 start. We both thought it too big but neither of us could muster up the heart to back what is an atrocious St Louis side.
Likewise I was tempted by a bet on Jacksonville who are hosting Tennesse. The titans have suprisingly gone 0 and 3 for the season and I made Jacksonville ever so slight favourites but Vegas (and therefore most firms *sigh*) gave the jags a 2 point start. I probably should have a bet and I might after checking the days team news but i'm by noway certain.
Which leads me to the one bet I have had this week, the email was sent on Monday 29th September.
A good start last week with an easy win for Denver could be followed up here by the firms overplaying the Redskins home form.
That email is as close to aftertiming that I will come, but I want to keep it for records and there were dozens of people who can verify it was sent in plenty of time.
To finish my first post I have this weekends NFL advice. I regularly discuss the gridiron action with Nick Sharratt and on a Monday after we have compiled our handicap lines for the forthcoming weeks action we will often confer before checking out what Vegas has produced. There were a few possibilities this weekend - for instance Frank Gore the star 49ers reciever is out and they were giving the Rams a 10.5 start. We both thought it too big but neither of us could muster up the heart to back what is an atrocious St Louis side.
Likewise I was tempted by a bet on Jacksonville who are hosting Tennesse. The titans have suprisingly gone 0 and 3 for the season and I made Jacksonville ever so slight favourites but Vegas (and therefore most firms *sigh*) gave the jags a 2 point start. I probably should have a bet and I might after checking the days team news but i'm by noway certain.
Which leads me to the one bet I have had this week, the email was sent on Monday 29th September.
A good start last week with an easy win for Denver could be followed up here by the firms overplaying the Redskins home form.
Washington lost at Detroit last week to a team that had previously gone 19 loses in a row and had a rookie QB looking for his first win in the top flight. How much of a shock was it - well I wasn't on but it does go someway to highlight the problems at Washington.
There is a lot of pressure on coach Jim Zorn with the majority of fans calling for a change and the players don't seem to know what is expected of them at the moment. Tampa haven't had a great start and are 0-3 so far. They were shut out by the Giants at Meadowlands last week but have still put more points on the board in their first 2 games (against Dallas and Buffalo) than Washington have in their 3 games to date.
The Giants are looking very strong this season even without Plaxico so it's not the worst paper performance from a franchise that we will see this season. When I did my handicap lines this week I made the Redskins 3.5 point favourites and Nick Sharratt whose opinion I value only made them 1 point favourites. Paddy Power and Corals are giving Tampa a 7.5 point start and that is good enough for me to invest.
It might not be the prettiest ball game of the season but I can't see Washington covering that line, their only victory of the season thus far being a dissmal 9-7 win over a very poor 0 and 3 St Louis side who have conceded 64 points in their other 2 games.
1pt Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 10/11.
Ok, so that was a lengthy first post. In future I shall be posting my NFL lines each Monday morning and openly comparing them to Vegas while discussing any differences. Any more bets will also be posted.
Happy punting.
Ok, so that was a lengthy first post. In future I shall be posting my NFL lines each Monday morning and openly comparing them to Vegas while discussing any differences. Any more bets will also be posted.
Happy punting.
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