So what have Vegas come up with for Week 9? I have posted their lines below with my views compiled yesterday in brackets.
At Jacksonville -6.5 (-5.5) Kansas City
Baltimore -3 (-3) At Cincinnati
At Indianapolis -9 (-4.5) Houston
At Atlanta -10 (-6.5) Washington
Green Bay -10 (-6) At Tampa Bay
At Chicago -3 (-5) Arizona
At New England -10.5 (-9) Miami
At New Orleans -14 (-7) Carolina
At Seattle -10 (-6.5) Detroit
At San Francisco -4 (-3.5) Tennessee
At NY Giants -4.5 (-3.5) San Diego
At Philadelphia -3 (-2.5) Dallas
Pittsburgh -3 (-2.5) At Denver
Straight away there are two games that I have made a lot closer than Vegas. Now obviously my lines haven't moved and Vegas' move often. I think it prudent to start here though when searching for the weeks bet.
New Orleans host Carolina and Vegas have given the Panthers a 2 touchdown start. We know The Saints have been firing so far and are now the proud owners of a perfect 7 & 0 record. Carolina sit at 3 & 4 having started with 3 straight defeats and are improving their numbers especially rushing yards where the likes of DeAngelo Williams played a prominant part in their defeat of Arizona on Sunday.
The Saints were made to work hard for their victory at home to Atlanta last night and like I've emphasised before divisional games do spark that extra bit of rivalry that can often keep the game tighter.
In order to consider Carolina as a potential bet we would need to look closely at their pass defense and interestingly enough they are ranked 1st in the NFL conceding only 160.6 yards. The Saints have been scoring heavily but they have also been conceding too, they are ranked 20th with an average of 22.0 points conceded per game - for a team that is unbeaten that does look on the high side.
Panthers' Quarterback Jake Delhomme was injured on Sunday and we will have to be sure of his fitness also. Taking on The Saints might be a little risky but I think my line will be closer to the one Vegas has published. I will review my thoughts on this match in the next couple of days when team news is more certain.
The next game where I differ from Vegas by some 4.5 points (which equates to half) is Houston's divisional battle in Indianapolis. Yep, Houston again. They do seem to be putting some consistency together and after The Colts sub par performance on Sunday my reaction was to keep this game close.
Vegas say that Indianapolis are 9 points better than Houston, but lets remember they are laying these prices and therefore need to keep some teams on side. A 7 & 0 Indianapolis team will attract action, they will be in multiple bets as well as bigger hitters lumping on them so it is my feeling that sometimes Vegas (and bookies) will offer slight value on their opponents. I don't lay my lines - I look to try and make each game a tie or close to it when I compile my handicaps. The Colts with Peyton Manning pulling the strings do look a force but San Francisco only condeded 18 points against them this weekend yet Vegas had the closing line at -13.
Houston do have a winning record of 5 & 3 and their numbers are not bad. They average 24.8 points a game (12th) (having started badly in week 1 scoring only 7) to the Colts 28.1 (7th). Again I will be waiting to catch up on how practise is going during the week because I was a little suprised that RB Steve Slaton was sent to the bench against Buffalo - although he has been fumbling I rate him quite highly and I'd be interested to know if Head Coach Gary Kubiak is likely to favour Ryan Moats this coming week.
For the time being the research continues, but I am confident of finding the 7th winner plenty before the action gets underway.
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