I always find it helpful to watch the show a couple of times before coming to any decisions. Quite often when watched live for the first time bias can set in as you are cheering for the acts you have invested in. This is also apparent with the judges and their knee jerk reactions, quite often you will hear Simon take something back after watching the show again.
I was trading the elimination market on the exchanges last night and I really couldn't believe how simple it was. I was able to lock in profit on Lloyd, Danyl, Stacey, Jedward, Joe & Jamie. It will be a shock if I don't have a winning week.
On to the performances, starting with Stacey, and her "personality" is starting to grind somewhat. I am sure comedians and impersonaters are praying that she wins because she will be so easy to take off. Lift shoulders, grin relentlesly, shake head quickly from left to right and the rest is easy. Her performance was not that great either, decent song from a very good film but it was only an average performance and I think Louis Walsh could do sexy better. We are aware that going first is not ideal but last night Stacey was the only act to coincide with Strictly Come Dancing and a few might have held on for the results from the Beeb missing her introduction (the PR part) which won't help her cause. Its always hard to tell how strong an acts support is when they haven't been in the bottom two before, but I think she will be one of the first "fancied" acts to fill that spot.
Olly was very good. I thought the whole performance was entertaining. It might not be the best song to show of your vocal range but it was virtually faultless. Yes the Judges want him to step it up a gear but I don't think he will have any problem nailing any song he is given. For me the competition is his to lose.
I thought Lloyd was better last night, but the judges seem determined that he will be the next to go. I'm not sure what happened to his legion of fans last week, has their credit on their phones run out? Had Mothers round the nation just recieved a big phone bill? If Lloyd finds himself in the bottom two this week (and the market cetainly thinks he will) the only act he is likely to survive against is John and Edward.
Jamie changed his song again, as I had originally thought he was to do Unchained Melody and the last minute change was a good idea. The judges liked it, commenting on the emotion he put into the performance and although I was unsure at first, when I watched it back the second time I definitly enjoyed it more and it may well be his best performance to date. However not all voters will be watching the re-run and the prices suggest he could be in the bottom two this week as I suggested yesterday. It is tricky to call because like Stacey we can't be sure as to how many people are voting for him yet. I hope he gets through but he is a likely contender for the sing off tonight.
Lucie was not as good as last week, the song was a bit dull. I'm not sure what type of singer she is trying to become doing Guns and Roses one week and then following it up with a disney track means you might not attract the same support. That being said I can't see her in the bottom two this week and will probably be Dannii's last act in the competition in weeks to come.
Danyl certainly looked better last night. The song was perfect for him but I still felt his performance was a little subdued compared to his past efforts. I was hoping for a show stopping performance from him with that track but I don't think he managed it. That being said I am certain it was good enough and the all important PR should see him through.
John and Edward. I like them less each week especially when Louis is squealing like a piglet about how much the public like them and how entertaining they are. Personally I had to go and hide behind the couch during their performance last night. I'd plead for common sense to prevail and ask people not to vote for them if I thought it would do any good but they look safe. One thing I noticed on the exchanges last night was how big their bottom two price is compared to their elimination price. This is solely because if they do find themselves in the bottom two they will be eliminated by the judges.
Joe got the hot slot last night as all acts would prefer to go last. He sang the song well as he has done every week but was it good enough to make you pick up the phone? I'm not sure who is voting for him because when I research the "fans" feelings I am yet to encounter a Joe fanatic. Should be safe as houses this week but I'll re-iterate my feelings, he is not a likely winner. Just too smiley and boring to win outright in my opinion.
I find myself in a decent position this week on the elimination market and won't lose a penny on whoever goes, I have mentioned this market before but was more apprehensive due to the extra day of voting. Well it hasn't affected the market at all and I would advise anyone to give it a go. For example I was able to back LLoyd at 6/4 during his perfomance last night and lay him off at 10/11 during the judges comments. It is that simple.
I think it is a difficult week and when these circumstances arise maybe it might be an idea to have a small bet at a big price. The action on the exchanges has cooled down and probably won't pick up again until the show starts tonight so tread carefully when taking the prices on offer. The market has Lloyd nailed on for bottom 2 with Jamie at 5/4 and Stacey at 3/1 it could well be a coin flip between the two so a small bet on Stacey may reap rewards.
0.5pt Stacey bottom two 3/1 Boyles or Betfair.
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