A Week 16 Bet.

It may be Christmas day but punters have to work all the year round especially when there is a cracking line up of fixtures this weekend.

While everyone else is preparing dinner and trying to find space in their cupboards for all the new gifts Nutty Sports is doing something far more constructive. Searching for another winner.

There were a few match ups that were close to a bet this week but in the end I have decided that Atlanta will not cover the 9 point start credited to Buffalo.

Falcons' Quarterback Matt Ryan has been suffering with injuries and has again been limited in practise this week. Even if he does play he will not be 100% and they will not have worked through as many drills and plays as Head Coach Mike Smith would have liked. They are not going to make the play offs this year and at 7 & 7 the only thing they can play for is another winning record.

Although Jason Snelling has filled in well, star running back Michael Turner has had ongoing problems with his ankle and may be rested again in order to get him fit when there is little to play for.

Atlanta are notoriously weak on pass defense and they are ranked 30th in the NFL conceding an average of 254.8. Any O-Line would be confident of putting up some yaradge against them.

Buffalo may not be highly ranked offensively but this is a prime opportunity for them to change that. Although inconsistent The Bills have put up some tremendous performances this season including good wins against Miami, Carolina and New York and have twice kept it very close against New England.

I made the Falcons 7.5 point favourites and felt that was on the high end, my initial thoughts were less than a touchdown. So why is the spread so big? Purely because of the doubt as to who will play at quarterback for Buffalo. If Trent Edwards were fit the spread would be around 5.5 points in my opinion. Ryan Fitzpatrick also injured his ankle covering for Edwards last week and it looks as if 3rd string Brian Brohm might get the nod.

Brohm is eager to get his chance, having been drafted by Green Bay in 2008 following a highly successful High School and College career he was picked up by the Bills in November. He has been very patient in waiting for a first start in the NFL and it couldn't come against a more accommodating team. It might be taking a chance on a rookie Quarterback but I don't see there being anything like 9 points in it.

1pt Buffalo +9 10/11 Generally.