Thursday, January 14, 2010

Regular Season Betting Review.

I think it's time to review our P&L for the regular NFL season. We still have some outstanding bets to come but this review will be for match bets only.

I will review the post season and outright after the season is completed. So far we have a ROI of 20.6%. Having started the season so well it is a disappointing figure but the fact is we are ahead and that is the main thing. Making money.

The bets are listed below.

1. No bet.
2. No bet.
3. 1pt Denver @ Oakland 5/6 W
4. 1pt Tampa Bay +7.5 10/11 @ Washington W
5. 1pt Indianapolis -3 10/11 @ Tennessee W
6. 1pt Buffalo +10 10/11 New York Jets W
7. 2pts New Orleans -6 10/11 @ Miami W
8. 1pt Dallas -9.5 10/11 Seattle W
9. 1pt Carolina +14 8/9 @ New Orleans W
10. 2pts New Orleans -13.5 10/11 @ St Louis L
11. 1pt Tennessee +5 10/11 @ Houston W
12. 1pt Miami -3 4/5 @ Buffalo L
13. 1pt Houston +1 10/11 @ Jacksonville L
14. No bet.
15. 1pt Green Bay 11/10 @ Pittsburgh L
1pt New York Giants -3 11/10 @ Washington W
16. 1pt Buffalo +9 10/11 @ Atlanta L
17. No bet.

I went "off the rails" towards the end of the season and I think that understandable to some degree. As the weeks go on the firms make fewer and fewer mistakes and therefore as I have said before it is harder to find a good bet. Although we were fortunate in some matches early on we were certainly unlucky in a few towards the end of the campaign, Green Bay's defeat at Pittsburgh particularly stands out.

Looking back at some of the bets we certainly got on the right side of some good things. Our week 5 bet with The Colts surrendering only 3 points looks a mighty fine line now, likewise our first bet with Denver from scratch.

The play offs are not going to be straight forward either as all the teams have title credentials, hopefully we will be on the right side of things to come.

The Texans although finishing 9-7 threw away their chances of post season football at Jacksonville and if we are clutching at straws then we could consider ourselves unlucky that Matt Schaubb injured his shoulder in the 1st quarter. We obviously lost on the outright there but we are in a good position with Dallas. We backed them at 26/1 (posted Friday 27th November) and if laying off is your thing you can now do so at 15/2 on the exchanges. Personally I'll be keeping the bet because I don't like to give up good positions. It is only possible to lay off when things go your way so why detract from maximising profits? Lets hope The Cowboy's give us a real run for our money.

I will conduct another review after events have unfolded in Miami next month.

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