Fortunately yesterday's tilt over flight prices has vanished. I managed to find a resonably priced flight, although a week earlier than intended. It means I'll be back in London on Saturday.
I've really been enjoying the Baseball play offs this year, although having talked up the chances of Texas for so long I'm a little annoyed that I haven't a penny on them and in fact have backed the Yankees.
The Yanks pulled it back to 2-3 last night with another post season win from CC Sabathia and now they return to Texas for the final 2 (hopefully) games. Friday sees Phil Hughes pitching against Colby Lewis and I'm really hopeful that Hughes who has been a revelation this year winning 18 regular season games can get the W. If it goes according to plan then we really will be in for a treat on Saturday night with Andy Pettitte trying to revenge his earlier lose against the formidable Cliff Lee. Only 4 or 5 teams in the history of the ALCS have come back from 3-1 down. One time please Yankees.
So back on topic and I thought I would be recommending a bet on New England on the money line this weekend. I do like their chances still but having studied the match up i've decided to go long on the points instead.
The line is generally set at 47, and I think it should probably be as high as 50.
New England are the league's highest point scorers so far this season with an average of 30.8. Yes, they have lost Randy Moss but that didn't seem to slow them down last week with a solid victory against Baltimore. Brady is a hall of fame quality QB and has one of the best arms in the business, he knows how to find his players and I'm sure the likes of Wes Welker, Deon Branch, Aaron Hernandez and Co are relishing the extra work they are going to get now Moss has departed.
They are conceding points too, at an average of 23.2 per game.
Now looking at the Chargers set up, if I'd of suggested pre-season that San Diego would lose back to back games against Oakland and St Louis you'd have though that i'd gone mad. But thats exactly what has happened these last 2 weeks, yet they are still ranked no.1 in the NFL for offense. Its a crazy world. Points wise they are 5th overall averaging 26.2 a game and conceding an average of 21.0.
A crude mathmatical equation suggests to me the line should be around 50.5 taking in to account points scored and conceded by each team. Injury doubts concerning Floyd and Gates will be of concern to the Chargers but Gates is unlikely to miss the action having played the last 85+ games, it will have to be very serious to keep him out. The special teams have been letting the side down, but Phillip Rivers has not. Expect him to find his TE and recievers again this week and put plenty of points on the board.
1pt over 47 points 10/11 (generally)
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