Looking back at the difference between last week and the seven previous to that the first thing that springs to mind is that for the first time I went against my lines.
Every week I have found a game where my views have differed from Vegas and used that as a starting point when studying how the teams matched up. Week 10 was different. I backed New Orleans at -13.5 when I made them -12.5. It's easy to say with hindsight that it should have been a "no bet" week and I considered that at one point but it became too importnat to me to keep the run going and that in itself was a mistake.
On to the Vegas lines for Week 11 with my lines in brackets.
| At Carolina | -3 | Miami |
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| At Detroit | -3.5 | Cleveland |
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| At Jacksonville | -9 (-3)
| Buffalo |
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| Pittsburgh | -10 (-4.5)
| At Kansas City |
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| At Baltimore | PK (+2.5)
| Indianapolis |
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| At NY Giants | -6.5 (-3.5)
| Atlanta |
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| At Green Bay | -6.5 (-3)
| San Francisco |
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| At Minnesota | -11 (-9.5)
| Seattle |
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| At Dallas | -11 (-5.5)
| Washington |
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| New Orleans | -11.5 (-14)
| At Tampa Bay |
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| Arizona | -9 (-5)
| At St. Louis |
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| At New England | -10.5 (-9)
| NY Jets |
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| Cincinnati | -9.5 (4.5)
| At Oakland |
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| San Diego | -3 (-3)
| At Denver |
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| Philadelphia | -3 (-3.5)
| At Chicago |
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Monday Night Football Line
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| At Houston | -5 (-3.5)
| Tennessee |
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Hmmm, looks like I will be having a bet on every game this week! I differ from Vegas on almost all the lines and by quite some distance in some match ups. At least it looks promising in the search for a bet this week. Time will tell.
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