There was quite a lot of interest into my claim on Facebook that I had found "The bet of the year" so rather than reply to all I figured I'd post my thoughts here....
As some of you will know the X Factor returns on Saturday with their live shows. There has been quite a lot of controversey surrounding the selections made by some of the judges this year. Whether or not that has anything to do with the "twist" the show is adding is unknown.
However, the "twist" is that each judge can nominate an act that they didn't put through, and then there will be a public vote allowing one of these acts to join the live shows.
The selected acts as I understand it are as follows: (Groups) Diva Feva, (Boys) Paije, (Girls) TreyC and (Over 28s) Wagner.
I would imagine one of the two scenarios will occur:
1) We will be invited to vote for the act we want to see make the live shows and the results will be given on the Sunday show (allowing for plenty of votes).
If this scenario is correct then an act will be eliminated before the new act joins the live show.
2) We will be invited to vote for the act we want to see make the live shows at the beginning of Saturday's show with the winning act singing live at the end of show.
This will mean they too could be eliminated in the first week.
Either way, I am fairly certain the new addition to the show will not be booted out first. Obviously the first scenario is better but even if the second scenario turns out to be correct, how likely are the public to vote in another act, giving them a reprieve only to boot them out a couple of hours later?
With this in mind I have been laying "Any other" to be first to be eliminated on Betfair. There isn't a lot of liquidity but it has been possible to do blocks every now and again. I have layed bits as short as 2/1 or thereabouts and will continue to do so until the show starts.
It just seems a gift to me.
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